Forecast accuracy for the 7 series' level and log-transformed test samples under four-step forecast
| Forecast method 1 – ARIMA for test sample of level series at four-step forecast | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy measure | Routes | |||||||
| SEAFI composite ARIMA(1,1,0) | Singapore ARIMA(1,0,3) | Vietnam ARIMA(0,1,4) | Thailand ARIMA(1,1,0) | The Philippines ARIMA(0,1,2) | Malaysia ARIMA(1,1,0) | Indonesia ARIMA(3,1,2) | Average | |
| RMSE | 234.042 | 31.273 | 128.082 | 52.169 | 31.675 | 48.020 | 63.297 | 84.080 |
| MAPE | 22.057 | 15.030 | 36.540 | 26.662 | 41.050 | 17.328 | 14.184 | 24.693 |
| Forecast method 1 – ARIMA for test sample of level series at four-step forecast | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy measure | Routes | |||||||
| SEAFI composite ARIMA(1,1,0) | Singapore ARIMA(1,0,3) | Vietnam ARIMA(0,1,4) | Thailand ARIMA(1,1,0) | The Philippines ARIMA(0,1,2) | Malaysia ARIMA(1,1,0) | Indonesia ARIMA(3,1,2) | Average | |
| RMSE | 234.042 | 31.273 | 128.082 | 52.169 | 31.675 | 48.020 | 63.297 | 84.080 |
| MAPE | 22.057 | 15.030 | 36.540 | 26.662 | 41.050 | 17.328 | 14.184 | 24.693 |
| Forecast method 2 – SNNAR for test sample of level series at four-step forecast | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy measure | Routes | |||||||
| SEAFI composite SNNAR(2,1,2) | Singapore SNNAR(2,1,2) | Vietnam SNNAR(2,1,2) | Thailand SNNAR(2,1,2) | The Philippines SNNAR(7,1,4) | Malaysia SNNAR(2,1,2) | Indonesia SNNAR(2,1,2) | Average | |
| RMSE | 267.293 | 34.779 | 92.508 | 45.406 | 54.650 | 53.202 | 79.639 | 89.639 |
| MAPE | 27.263 | 17.113 | 28.354 | 23.635 | 56.684 | 19.249 | 21.715 | 27.716 |
| Forecast method 2 – SNNAR for test sample of level series at four-step forecast | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy measure | Routes | |||||||
| SEAFI composite SNNAR(2,1,2) | Singapore SNNAR(2,1,2) | Vietnam SNNAR(2,1,2) | Thailand SNNAR(2,1,2) | The Philippines SNNAR(7,1,4) | Malaysia SNNAR(2,1,2) | Indonesia SNNAR(2,1,2) | Average | |
| RMSE | 267.293 | 34.779 | 92.508 | 45.406 | 54.650 | 53.202 | 79.639 | 89.639 |
| MAPE | 27.263 | 17.113 | 28.354 | 23.635 | 56.684 | 19.249 | 21.715 | 27.716 |
| Forecast method 1 – ARIMA for test sample of log-transformed series at four-step forecast | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy measure | Routes | |||||||
| SEAFI composite ARIMA(0,1,3) | Singapore ARIMA(5,0,0) | Vietnam ARIMA(1,1,0) | Thailand ARIMA(1,1,0) | The Philippines ARIMA(0,1,2) | Malaysia ARIMA(1,1,0) | Indonesia ARIMA(3,1,2) | Average | |
| RMSE | 0.32 | 0.256 | 0.496 | 0.326 | 3.168 | 0.278 | 0.244 | 0.727 |
| MAPE | 3.764 | 4.036 | 7.669 | 5.563 | 36.174 | 3.881 | 2.995 | 9.155 |
| Forecast method 1 – ARIMA for test sample of log-transformed series at four-step forecast | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy measure | Routes | |||||||
| SEAFI composite ARIMA(0,1,3) | Singapore ARIMA(5,0,0) | Vietnam ARIMA(1,1,0) | Thailand ARIMA(1,1,0) | The Philippines ARIMA(0,1,2) | Malaysia ARIMA(1,1,0) | Indonesia ARIMA(3,1,2) | Average | |
| RMSE | 0.32 | 0.256 | 0.496 | 0.326 | 3.168 | 0.278 | 0.244 | 0.727 |
| MAPE | 3.764 | 4.036 | 7.669 | 5.563 | 36.174 | 3.881 | 2.995 | 9.155 |
| Forecast method 2 – SNNAR for test sample of log-transformed series at four-step forecast | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy measure | Routes | |||||||
| SEAFI composite SNNAR(2,1,2) | Singapore SNNAR (1,1,2) | Vietnam SNNAR (2,1,2) | Thailand SNNAR (2,1,2) | The Philippines SNNAR(7,1,4) | Malaysia SNNAR(2,1,2) | Indonesia SNNAR(2,1,2) | Average | |
| RMSE | 0.46 | 0.262 | 0.417 | 0.375 | 3.725 | 0.354 | 0.303 | 0.842 |
| MAPE | 5.674 | 3.824 | 6.301 | 6.192 | 42.407 | 4.878 | 4.461 | 10.534 |
| Forecast method 2 – SNNAR for test sample of log-transformed series at four-step forecast | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy measure | Routes | |||||||
| SEAFI composite SNNAR(2,1,2) | Singapore SNNAR (1,1,2) | Vietnam SNNAR (2,1,2) | Thailand SNNAR (2,1,2) | The Philippines SNNAR(7,1,4) | Malaysia SNNAR(2,1,2) | Indonesia SNNAR(2,1,2) | Average | |
| RMSE | 0.46 | 0.262 | 0.417 | 0.375 | 3.725 | 0.354 | 0.303 | 0.842 |
| MAPE | 5.674 | 3.824 | 6.301 | 6.192 | 42.407 | 4.878 | 4.461 | 10.534 |
Source(s): Authors’ work
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