Impact of fraud on tax progressivity and inequality
| Original | Corrected | Diff (%) | No fraud | Diff (%) | Original | Corrected | Diff (%) | No fraud | Diff (%) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | (2) | (2 − 1)/(1) | (3) | (3 − 2)/(2) | (1) | (2) | (2 − 1)/(1) | (3) | (3 − 2)/(2) | |
| 2001 | 2002 | |||||||||
| Pre-tax Gini | 37.50 | 39.60 | 6 | 39.60 | 0 | 36.88 | 37.59 | 2 | 37.59 | 0 |
| Post-tax Gini | 32.30 | 35.70 | 11 | 33.65 | −6 | 31.72 | 33.30 | 5 | 32.09 | −4 |
| Average tax rate | 15.79 | 13.28 | −16 | 18.65 | 40 | 15.86 | 13.88 | −12 | 17.88 | 29 |
| Redistribution | 5.20 | 3.89 | −25 | 5.94 | 53 | 5.16 | 4.29 | −17 | 5.50 | 28 |
| Progressivity | 28.25 | 25.90 | −8 | 26.30 | 2 | 27.88 | 27.09 | −3 | 25.67 | −5 |
| Tax rate top 10% | 23.84 | 19.06 | −20 | 27.37 | 44 | 24.10 | 20.71 | −14 | 26.51 | 28 |
| Tax rate top 1% | 33.97 | 24.44 | −28 | 37.51 | 53 | 34.10 | 28.18 | −17 | 36.12 | 28 |
| 2003 | 2004 | |||||||||
| Pre-tax Gini | 38.80 | 39.71 | 2 | 39.71 | 0 | 40.82 | 42.04 | 3 | 42.04 | 0 |
| Post-tax Gini | 33.88 | 35.59 | 5 | 34.44 | −3 | 35.91 | 37.97 | 6 | 36.75 | −3 |
| Average tax rate | 13.74 | 12.08 | −12 | 15.79 | 31 | 14.33 | 12.61 | −12 | 16.40 | 30 |
| Redistribution | 4.93 | 4.12 | −16 | 5.27 | 28 | 4.91 | 4.07 | −17 | 5.29 | 30 |
| Progressivity | 31.45 | 30.48 | −3 | 28.53 | −6 | 29.87 | 28.61 | −4 | 27.35 | −4 |
| Tax rate top 10% | 21.96 | 18.92 | −14 | 24.39 | 29 | 22.43 | 19.25 | −14 | 24.86 | 29 |
| Tax rate top 1% | 30.85 | 25.33 | −18 | 32.98 | 30 | 29.69 | 23.77 | −20 | 31.78 | 34 |
| Original | Corrected | Diff (%) | No fraud | Diff (%) | Original | Corrected | Diff (%) | No fraud | Diff (%) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | (2) | (2 − 1)/(1) | (3) | (3 − 2)/(2) | (1) | (2) | (2 − 1)/(1) | (3) | (3 − 2)/(2) | |
| 2001 | 2002 | |||||||||
| Pre-tax Gini | 37.50 | 39.60 | 6 | 39.60 | 0 | 36.88 | 37.59 | 2 | 37.59 | 0 |
| Post-tax Gini | 32.30 | 35.70 | 11 | 33.65 | −6 | 31.72 | 33.30 | 5 | 32.09 | −4 |
| Average tax rate | 15.79 | 13.28 | −16 | 18.65 | 40 | 15.86 | 13.88 | −12 | 17.88 | 29 |
| Redistribution | 5.20 | 3.89 | −25 | 5.94 | 53 | 5.16 | 4.29 | −17 | 5.50 | 28 |
| Progressivity | 28.25 | 25.90 | −8 | 26.30 | 2 | 27.88 | 27.09 | −3 | 25.67 | −5 |
| Tax rate top 10% | 23.84 | 19.06 | −20 | 27.37 | 44 | 24.10 | 20.71 | −14 | 26.51 | 28 |
| Tax rate top 1% | 33.97 | 24.44 | −28 | 37.51 | 53 | 34.10 | 28.18 | −17 | 36.12 | 28 |
| 2003 | 2004 | |||||||||
| Pre-tax Gini | 38.80 | 39.71 | 2 | 39.71 | 0 | 40.82 | 42.04 | 3 | 42.04 | 0 |
| Post-tax Gini | 33.88 | 35.59 | 5 | 34.44 | −3 | 35.91 | 37.97 | 6 | 36.75 | −3 |
| Average tax rate | 13.74 | 12.08 | −12 | 15.79 | 31 | 14.33 | 12.61 | −12 | 16.40 | 30 |
| Redistribution | 4.93 | 4.12 | −16 | 5.27 | 28 | 4.91 | 4.07 | −17 | 5.29 | 30 |
| Progressivity | 31.45 | 30.48 | −3 | 28.53 | −6 | 29.87 | 28.61 | −4 | 27.35 | −4 |
| Tax rate top 10% | 21.96 | 18.92 | −14 | 24.39 | 29 | 22.43 | 19.25 | −14 | 24.86 | 29 |
| Tax rate top 1% | 30.85 | 25.33 | −18 | 32.98 | 30 | 29.69 | 23.77 | −20 | 31.78 | 34 |
Notes:
In all cases, the sum of net revenues from all sources is the income reference. The “original” scenario is the estimate readily obtained from the data, affected by under-reporting. “Corrected” shows the real behaviour of the tax, if evasion was distributed as obtained, plus including a 10% evasion in labour incomes (and thus, adjusting all other evasion rates upwards), while the “no fraud” scenario shows how the tax would have been distributed under full compliance. The redistribution indicator is the Reynolds–Smolensky index, corresponding to the difference between the Gini of pre-tax and post-tax incomes. The progressivity indicator is the Kakwani index: the difference between the pre-tax Gini and the concentration of tax payments. The tax rates for the top 10 and 1% refer to the distribution of corrected incomes, and they are calculated as tax due over total (real) income (then averaged for the relevant group). To improve readability, all indices have been multiplied by 100. The existence of special treatment for long-term capital gains (“base especial”) has been included in the calculations. This “base especial” had a uniform tax rate of 18% in 2001-2002 and of 15% in 2003-2004
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