Table 1. Projected change in global mean...

Table 1.

Projected change in global mean surface air temperature and global mean SLR for the mid- and late 21st century relative to the reference period of 1986-2005

		2046–2065		2081–2100
	Scenario	Mean	Likely range^c	Mean	Likely range^c
Global mean surface temperature change (°C)^a	RCP206	1.0	0.4 to 1.6	1.0	0.3 to 1.7
	RCP4.5	1.4	0.9 to 2.0	1.8	1.1 to 2.6
	RCP6.0	1.3	0.8 to 1.8	2.2	1.4 to 3.1
	RCP8.5	2.0	1.4 to 2.6	3.7	2.6 to 4.8
Global mean SLR (m)^b	RCP2.6	0.24	0.17 to 0.32	0.40	0.26 to 0.55
	RCP4.5	0.26	0.19 to 0.33	0.47	0.32 to 0.63
	RCP6.0	0.25	0.18 to 0.32	0.48	0.33 to 0.63
	RCP8.5	0.30	0.22 to 0.38	0.63	0.45 to 0.82

		2046–2065		2081–2100
	Scenario	Mean	Likely range^c	Mean	Likely range^c
Global mean surface temperature change (°C)^a	RCP206	1.0	0.4 to 1.6	1.0	0.3 to 1.7
	RCP4.5	1.4	0.9 to 2.0	1.8	1.1 to 2.6
	RCP6.0	1.3	0.8 to 1.8	2.2	1.4 to 3.1
	RCP8.5	2.0	1.4 to 2.6	3.7	2.6 to 4.8
Global mean SLR (m)^b	RCP2.6	0.24	0.17 to 0.32	0.40	0.26 to 0.55
	RCP4.5	0.26	0.19 to 0.33	0.47	0.32 to 0.63
	RCP6.0	0.25	0.18 to 0.32	0.48	0.33 to 0.63
	RCP8.5	0.30	0.22 to 0.38	0.63	0.45 to 0.82

Notes:

^aBased on the CMIP5 ensemble; anomalies calculated with respect to 1986-2005 using HadCRUT4 and its uncertainty estimate (5-95% confidence interval); ^bbased on 21 CMIP5 models; anomalies calculated with respect to 1986-2005; ^ccalculated from projections as 5-95% model ranges. These ranges are then assessed to be likely ranges after accounting for additional uncertainties or different levels of confidence in models

Source: IPCC (2013)

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