Table IV. Benchmarking spectral analysis...

Table IV.

Benchmarking spectral analysis proportion estimates to the Pew Research Centre (2017) estimates

YEAR 2050	Zero-migration scenario, Spectral Analysis (%)	Zero-migration scenario, Pew Forecast (%)	Midpoint scenario, Spectral Analysis (%)	Medium-migration scenario, Pew Forecast (%)	2017 migration scenario, Spectral Analysis (%)	High-migration scenario, Pew Forecast (%)
Belgium	11.5	11.1	14.4	15.1	17.3	18.2
Bulgaria	14.1	12.5	15.3	9.2	16.4	11.6
Cyprus	33.7	25.5	39.1	26.6	44.5	28.3
France	13.5	12.7	16.3	17.4	19.1	18.0
Greece	7.7	6.3	16.7	8.1	25.7	9.7
Ireland	2.4	1.6	3.4	4.3	4.4	4.4
Italy	6.6	8.3	10.5	12.4	14.4	14.1
Lithuania	0.1	0.1	0.5	0.1	0.8	0.2
Luxembourg	4.6	3.4	11.1	6.7	17.6	9.9
Slovenia	5.5	4.3	6.8	5.0	8.1	5.2
Sweden	12.3	11.1	17.1	20.5	21.9	30.6
Switzerland	8.4	8.2	11.9	10.3	15.4	12.9
The UK	9.7	9.7	10.6	16.7	11.5	17.2
Austria	9.1	9.3	14.5	10.6	19.9	19.9
Denmark	7.7	7.6	8.7	11.9	9.6	16.0
Germany	7.7	8.7	12.5	10.8	17.3	19.7
Finland	3.9	4.2	5.5	11.4	7.1	15.0
Malta	3.2	3.2	9.9	9.3	16.6	16.2
Netherlands	9.9	9.1	11.7	12.5	13.5	15.2
Norway	8.5	7.2	9.6	13.4	10.8	17.0
Spain	3.7	4.6	4.8	6.8	5.9	7.2
Croatia	2.1	1.8	2.6	2.0	3.1	2.1
Czechia	0.3	0.2	0.5	1.1	0.8	1.2
Estonia	0.3	0.2	0.6	0.8	0.9	1.0
Hungary	0.5	0.4	1.2	1.3	1.8	4.5
Latvia	0.2	0.2	0.6	0.2	1.0	0.4
Poland	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.6	0.2
Portugal	0.5	0.5	0.8	2.5	1.1	2.5
Romania	0.5	0.4	1.0	0.8	1.5	0.9
Slovakia	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.6	0.2	0.7
AVERAGE	6.3	5.8	8.6	8.3	11.0	10.7
Standard deviation	6.8	5.7	8.2	6.8	10.0	8.6
Two-sample t-test for equal group means	H = 0; p = 0.7459; The logical value 0 indicates the null hypothesis is accepted at the default 0.05 significance level. The p-value for the test is high. There is sufficient evidence that the means are equal		H = 0; p = 0.8637; There is sufficient evidence that the means are equal		H = 0; p = 0.9016; There is sufficient evidence that the means are equal

YEAR 2050	Zero-migration scenario, Spectral Analysis (%)	Zero-migration scenario, Pew Forecast (%)	Midpoint scenario, Spectral Analysis (%)	Medium-migration scenario, Pew Forecast (%)	2017 migration scenario, Spectral Analysis (%)	High-migration scenario, Pew Forecast (%)
Belgium	11.5	11.1	14.4	15.1	17.3	18.2
Bulgaria	14.1	12.5	15.3	9.2	16.4	11.6
Cyprus	33.7	25.5	39.1	26.6	44.5	28.3
France	13.5	12.7	16.3	17.4	19.1	18.0
Greece	7.7	6.3	16.7	8.1	25.7	9.7
Ireland	2.4	1.6	3.4	4.3	4.4	4.4
Italy	6.6	8.3	10.5	12.4	14.4	14.1
Lithuania	0.1	0.1	0.5	0.1	0.8	0.2
Luxembourg	4.6	3.4	11.1	6.7	17.6	9.9
Slovenia	5.5	4.3	6.8	5.0	8.1	5.2
Sweden	12.3	11.1	17.1	20.5	21.9	30.6
Switzerland	8.4	8.2	11.9	10.3	15.4	12.9
The UK	9.7	9.7	10.6	16.7	11.5	17.2
Austria	9.1	9.3	14.5	10.6	19.9	19.9
Denmark	7.7	7.6	8.7	11.9	9.6	16.0
Germany	7.7	8.7	12.5	10.8	17.3	19.7
Finland	3.9	4.2	5.5	11.4	7.1	15.0
Malta	3.2	3.2	9.9	9.3	16.6	16.2
Netherlands	9.9	9.1	11.7	12.5	13.5	15.2
Norway	8.5	7.2	9.6	13.4	10.8	17.0
Spain	3.7	4.6	4.8	6.8	5.9	7.2
Croatia	2.1	1.8	2.6	2.0	3.1	2.1
Czechia	0.3	0.2	0.5	1.1	0.8	1.2
Estonia	0.3	0.2	0.6	0.8	0.9	1.0
Hungary	0.5	0.4	1.2	1.3	1.8	4.5
Latvia	0.2	0.2	0.6	0.2	1.0	0.4
Poland	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.6	0.2
Portugal	0.5	0.5	0.8	2.5	1.1	2.5
Romania	0.5	0.4	1.0	0.8	1.5	0.9
Slovakia	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.6	0.2	0.7
AVERAGE	6.3	5.8	8.6	8.3	11.0	10.7
Standard deviation	6.8	5.7	8.2	6.8	10.0	8.6
Two-sample t-test for equal group means	H = 0; p = 0.7459; The logical value 0 indicates the null hypothesis is accepted at the default 0.05 significance level. The p-value for the test is high. There is sufficient evidence that the means are equal		H = 0; p = 0.8637; There is sufficient evidence that the means are equal		H = 0; p = 0.9016; There is sufficient evidence that the means are equal

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