Table III. Logit estimates of the...

Table III.

Logit estimates of the probability that a non-poor household experiences ES

	ECVL-2011			ECVL-2012			ECVL-2013			ECVL-2014			ECVL-2015			ECVL-2016
	Exp(B)	EXP(B)		Exp(B)	EXP(B)		Exp(B)	EXP(B)		Exp(B)	EXP(B)		Exp(B)	EXP(B)		Exp(B)	EXP(B)
	Exp(B)	Lower	Upper	Exp(B)	Lower	Upper	Exp(B)	Lower	Upper	Exp(B)	Lower	Upper	Exp(B)	Lower	Upper	Exp(B)	Lower	Upper
COUNT	0.981	0.979	0.983	1.331	1.328	1.334	1.061	1.059	1.064	0.817	0.815	0.819	0.936	0.934	0.938	0.904	0.902	0.907
VARCOUNT	1.546	1.541	1.551	1.422	1.418	1.426	1.212	1.209	1.216	1.284	1.281	1.288	1.597	1.592	1.602	1.312	1.308	1.316
CHILDREN	1.030	1.028	1.032	1.031	1.028	1.033	1.280	1.278	1.283	0.932	0.930	0.934	1.313	1.310	1.316	0.960	0.958	0.963
VARCHILDREN	1.208	1.204	1.211	1.361	1.357	1.365	1.299	1.295	1.303	1.046	1.043	1.050	1.031	1.028	1.034	1.285	1.282	1.289
MEANAGEH	0.976	0.976	0.976	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.011	1.011	1.011	0.998	0.998	0.999	1.001	1.000	1.001	1.006	1.006	1.007
DPMEANAGEH	1.002	1.002	1.002	0.992	0.992	0.992	1.001	1.001	1.001	1.017	1.017	1.017	1.027	1.027	1.027	1.036	1.036	1.036
SEXPP (ref.categ.:man)
Woman	1.130	1.127	1.133	1.162	1.159	1.166	1.274	1.271	1.278	1.386	1.382	1.390	1.152	1.148	1.155	1.214	1.210	1.217
EDUCAPP	0.837	0.836	0.838	0.904	0.903	0.905	0.766	0.766	0.767	0.831	0.830	0.831	0.827	0.826	0.827	0.807	0.806	0.808
BADHEALTHH	1.801	1.795	1.808	1.587	1.581	1.593	1.415	1.410	1.420	1.455	1.450	1.460	1.303	1.299	1.308	1.612	1.607	1.618
DWELLING (ref.categ.: owned without mortgage)
Owned with mortgage	2.017	2.009	2.024	1.767	1.761	1.774	1.818	1.811	1.824	1.893	1.886	1.900	2.911	2.899	2.922	3.443	3.429	3.456
Rented at market price	1.252	1.245	1.260	1.679	1.669	1.689	1.457	1.448	1.466	2.415	2.397	2.432	1.454	1.445	1.462	1.521	1.513	1.529
Rented at less than market price	1.558	1.542	1.574	1.569	1.555	1.584	0.804	0.796	0.812	1.063	1.054	1.072	0.852	0.842	0.863	1.772	1.748	1.797
Lent free of charge	0.841	0.836	0.846	0.426	0.423	0.429	0.557	0.553	0.560	1.110	1.104	1.117	0.850	0.844	0.855	1.545	1.535	1.555
IG	0.465	0.463	0.466	0.455	0.454	0.456	0.538	0.536	0.539	0.392	0.391	0.393	0.369	0.368	0.370	0.379	0.378	0.380
VARINCOME	0.819	0.817	0.820	0.867	0.865	0.868	0.812	0.811	0.814	0.829	0.828	0.831	0.691	0.690	0.693	0.902	0.900	0.903
INCOTHERH	1.529	1.520	1.537	2.629	2.613	2.645	2.083	2.073	2.093	1.378	1.372	1.384	1.572	1.566	1.577	1.080	1.077	1.084
UNEMPLH	1.228	1.218	1.239	1.237	1.228	1.247	2.016	2.002	2.031	0.926	0.919	0.932	1.766	1.753	1.780	1.024	1.017	1.031
VARUNEMPLH	1.893	1.887	1.898	1.325	1.322	1.329	1.464	1.460	1.468	1.718	1.713	1.724	1.968	1.961	1.975	1.781	1.774	1.787
EMPLH	0.333	0.330	0.335	0.592	0.588	0.596	1.200	1.193	1.208	0.849	0.843	0.854	0.429	0.426	0.432	0.708	0.703	0.713
VAREMPLH	1.032	1.028	1.035	1.106	1.102	1.109	0.880	0.877	0.883	1.514	1.509	1.519	0.912	0.909	0.915	1.119	1.115	1.123
RETIREDH	0.713	0.709	0.718	1.276	1.268	1.285	1.032	1.025	1.038	1.053	1.046	1.059	0.739	0.734	0.743	0.890	0.885	0.895
REGION OF RESIDENCE (ref.categ.: Canary Islands)
Galicia	1.279	1.268	1.291	1.393	1.379	1.406	2.362	2.343	2.381	0.942	0.933	0.951	0.517	0.512	0.523	0.719	0.712	0.726
Asturias	0.370	0.366	0.374	0.876	0.866	0.886	1.515	1.499	1.530	0.450	0.445	0.455	0.260	0.257	0.263	0.591	0.584	0.598
Cantabria	0.531	0.524	0.539	0.954	0.940	0.967	1.869	1.843	1.896	0.647	0.637	0.658	1.053	1.038	1.070	1.215	1.198	1.233
Basque Country	0.911	0.902	0.919	0.669	0.662	0.675	1.504	1.491	1.516	1.139	1.128	1.150	0.416	0.411	0.420	0.953	0.944	0.962
Navarra	0.461	0.455	0.467	0.502	0.495	0.508	1.560	1.542	1.578	1.101	1.087	1.115	0.187	0.185	0.190	0.857	0.846	0.868
La Rioja	0.558	0.548	0.568	1.138	1.119	1.157	1.489	1.467	1.512	1.157	1.138	1.177	0.423	0.416	0.431	0.781	0.769	0.794
Aragon	0.422	0.418	0.427	0.982	0.972	0.993	1.467	1.453	1.481	1.052	1.041	1.063	0.443	0.438	0.448	0.841	0.832	0.850
Madrid	1.409	1.398	1.421	1.738	1.722	1.754	3.118	3.097	3.140	1.398	1.386	1.411	0.870	0.862	0.878	2.089	2.070	2.107
Castilla y Leon	0.698	0.692	0.704	1.033	1.023	1.043	1,00*	0.994	1.009	0.677	0.671	0.684	0.601	0.595	0.607	0.766	0.758	0.773
Castilla-La Mancha	0.459	0.454	0.463	0.958	0.948	0.968	1.364	1.352	1.376	0.612	0.606	0.618	0.517	0.511	0.522	0.371	0.368	0.375
Extremadura	0.366	0.361	0.371	0.573	0.566	0.581	1.436	1.420	1.452	0.868	0.857	0.878	0.461	0.455	0.468	1.285	1.269	1.300
Catalonia	1.045	1.037	1.053	1.420	1.407	1.433	3.653	3.628	3.678	1.444	1.431	1.456	0.699	0.693	0.705	1.789	1.774	1.805
Valencian Region	0.661	0.655	0.666	1.154	1.143	1.164	1.998	1.983	2.012	1.152	1.142	1.162	0.529	0.524	0.534	1.687	1.672	1.703
Balearic Islands	1.579	1.561	1.597	1.423	1.407	1.440	1.462	1.447	1.478	2.945	2.910	2.981	0.433	0.428	0.438	1.155	1.142	1.168
Andalusia	0.824	0.817	0.831	2.487	2.465	2.510	2.239	2.223	2.254	0.888	0.881	0.896	0.539	0.534	0.544	1.383	1.371	1.396
Murcia	0.618	0.611	0.625	1.782	1.761	1.804	3.336	3.301	3.372	1.259	1.244	1.275	0.320	0.316	0.324	0.974	0.962	0.986
Ceuta	1.165	1.125	1.206	6.090	5.683	6.526	3.191	3.075	3.312	7.420	6.873	8.012	0.267	0.258	0.276	1,06*	0.996	1.122
Melilla	1.361	1.318	1.404	1.846	1.780	1.914	1.802	1.735	1.872	1.380	1.338	1.423	0.022	0.020	0.023	0.804	0.779	0.830
Constant	18.808			1.252			0.653			6.127			11.580			3.257
N			1,890			1,822			1,771			1,550			1,672			1,639
% initial cases correctly classified			51			50			55			58			57			55.3
initial-2 Log Likelihood			14,979,957			14,690,940			15,473,721			15,173,815			15,104,416			15,227,532
−2 log likelihood model			12,783,797			12,835,856			13,581,084			13,284,476			12,540,701			12,918,283
McFadden Pseudo R²			0.15			0.13			0.12			0.12			0.17			0.15
% cases correctly classified			69			67			66			69			70			71
HD = 0			70			68			57			52			58			62
HD = 1			68			66			74			82			79			78
▲in % cases correctly classified			18.60			16.70			11.50			11.40			12.50			15.20

	ECVL-2011			ECVL-2012			ECVL-2013			ECVL-2014			ECVL-2015			ECVL-2016
	Exp(B)	EXP(B)		Exp(B)	EXP(B)		Exp(B)	EXP(B)		Exp(B)	EXP(B)		Exp(B)	EXP(B)		Exp(B)	EXP(B)
	Exp(B)	Lower	Upper	Exp(B)	Lower	Upper	Exp(B)	Lower	Upper	Exp(B)	Lower	Upper	Exp(B)	Lower	Upper	Exp(B)	Lower	Upper
COUNT	0.981	0.979	0.983	1.331	1.328	1.334	1.061	1.059	1.064	0.817	0.815	0.819	0.936	0.934	0.938	0.904	0.902	0.907
VARCOUNT	1.546	1.541	1.551	1.422	1.418	1.426	1.212	1.209	1.216	1.284	1.281	1.288	1.597	1.592	1.602	1.312	1.308	1.316
CHILDREN	1.030	1.028	1.032	1.031	1.028	1.033	1.280	1.278	1.283	0.932	0.930	0.934	1.313	1.310	1.316	0.960	0.958	0.963
VARCHILDREN	1.208	1.204	1.211	1.361	1.357	1.365	1.299	1.295	1.303	1.046	1.043	1.050	1.031	1.028	1.034	1.285	1.282	1.289
MEANAGEH	0.976	0.976	0.976	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.011	1.011	1.011	0.998	0.998	0.999	1.001	1.000	1.001	1.006	1.006	1.007
DPMEANAGEH	1.002	1.002	1.002	0.992	0.992	0.992	1.001	1.001	1.001	1.017	1.017	1.017	1.027	1.027	1.027	1.036	1.036	1.036
SEXPP (ref.categ.:man)
Woman	1.130	1.127	1.133	1.162	1.159	1.166	1.274	1.271	1.278	1.386	1.382	1.390	1.152	1.148	1.155	1.214	1.210	1.217
EDUCAPP	0.837	0.836	0.838	0.904	0.903	0.905	0.766	0.766	0.767	0.831	0.830	0.831	0.827	0.826	0.827	0.807	0.806	0.808
BADHEALTHH	1.801	1.795	1.808	1.587	1.581	1.593	1.415	1.410	1.420	1.455	1.450	1.460	1.303	1.299	1.308	1.612	1.607	1.618
DWELLING (ref.categ.: owned without mortgage)
Owned with mortgage	2.017	2.009	2.024	1.767	1.761	1.774	1.818	1.811	1.824	1.893	1.886	1.900	2.911	2.899	2.922	3.443	3.429	3.456
Rented at market price	1.252	1.245	1.260	1.679	1.669	1.689	1.457	1.448	1.466	2.415	2.397	2.432	1.454	1.445	1.462	1.521	1.513	1.529
Rented at less than market price	1.558	1.542	1.574	1.569	1.555	1.584	0.804	0.796	0.812	1.063	1.054	1.072	0.852	0.842	0.863	1.772	1.748	1.797
Lent free of charge	0.841	0.836	0.846	0.426	0.423	0.429	0.557	0.553	0.560	1.110	1.104	1.117	0.850	0.844	0.855	1.545	1.535	1.555
IG	0.465	0.463	0.466	0.455	0.454	0.456	0.538	0.536	0.539	0.392	0.391	0.393	0.369	0.368	0.370	0.379	0.378	0.380
VARINCOME	0.819	0.817	0.820	0.867	0.865	0.868	0.812	0.811	0.814	0.829	0.828	0.831	0.691	0.690	0.693	0.902	0.900	0.903
INCOTHERH	1.529	1.520	1.537	2.629	2.613	2.645	2.083	2.073	2.093	1.378	1.372	1.384	1.572	1.566	1.577	1.080	1.077	1.084
UNEMPLH	1.228	1.218	1.239	1.237	1.228	1.247	2.016	2.002	2.031	0.926	0.919	0.932	1.766	1.753	1.780	1.024	1.017	1.031
VARUNEMPLH	1.893	1.887	1.898	1.325	1.322	1.329	1.464	1.460	1.468	1.718	1.713	1.724	1.968	1.961	1.975	1.781	1.774	1.787
EMPLH	0.333	0.330	0.335	0.592	0.588	0.596	1.200	1.193	1.208	0.849	0.843	0.854	0.429	0.426	0.432	0.708	0.703	0.713
VAREMPLH	1.032	1.028	1.035	1.106	1.102	1.109	0.880	0.877	0.883	1.514	1.509	1.519	0.912	0.909	0.915	1.119	1.115	1.123
RETIREDH	0.713	0.709	0.718	1.276	1.268	1.285	1.032	1.025	1.038	1.053	1.046	1.059	0.739	0.734	0.743	0.890	0.885	0.895
REGION OF RESIDENCE (ref.categ.: Canary Islands)
Galicia	1.279	1.268	1.291	1.393	1.379	1.406	2.362	2.343	2.381	0.942	0.933	0.951	0.517	0.512	0.523	0.719	0.712	0.726
Asturias	0.370	0.366	0.374	0.876	0.866	0.886	1.515	1.499	1.530	0.450	0.445	0.455	0.260	0.257	0.263	0.591	0.584	0.598
Cantabria	0.531	0.524	0.539	0.954	0.940	0.967	1.869	1.843	1.896	0.647	0.637	0.658	1.053	1.038	1.070	1.215	1.198	1.233
Basque Country	0.911	0.902	0.919	0.669	0.662	0.675	1.504	1.491	1.516	1.139	1.128	1.150	0.416	0.411	0.420	0.953	0.944	0.962
Navarra	0.461	0.455	0.467	0.502	0.495	0.508	1.560	1.542	1.578	1.101	1.087	1.115	0.187	0.185	0.190	0.857	0.846	0.868
La Rioja	0.558	0.548	0.568	1.138	1.119	1.157	1.489	1.467	1.512	1.157	1.138	1.177	0.423	0.416	0.431	0.781	0.769	0.794
Aragon	0.422	0.418	0.427	0.982	0.972	0.993	1.467	1.453	1.481	1.052	1.041	1.063	0.443	0.438	0.448	0.841	0.832	0.850
Madrid	1.409	1.398	1.421	1.738	1.722	1.754	3.118	3.097	3.140	1.398	1.386	1.411	0.870	0.862	0.878	2.089	2.070	2.107
Castilla y Leon	0.698	0.692	0.704	1.033	1.023	1.043	1,00*	0.994	1.009	0.677	0.671	0.684	0.601	0.595	0.607	0.766	0.758	0.773
Castilla-La Mancha	0.459	0.454	0.463	0.958	0.948	0.968	1.364	1.352	1.376	0.612	0.606	0.618	0.517	0.511	0.522	0.371	0.368	0.375
Extremadura	0.366	0.361	0.371	0.573	0.566	0.581	1.436	1.420	1.452	0.868	0.857	0.878	0.461	0.455	0.468	1.285	1.269	1.300
Catalonia	1.045	1.037	1.053	1.420	1.407	1.433	3.653	3.628	3.678	1.444	1.431	1.456	0.699	0.693	0.705	1.789	1.774	1.805
Valencian Region	0.661	0.655	0.666	1.154	1.143	1.164	1.998	1.983	2.012	1.152	1.142	1.162	0.529	0.524	0.534	1.687	1.672	1.703
Balearic Islands	1.579	1.561	1.597	1.423	1.407	1.440	1.462	1.447	1.478	2.945	2.910	2.981	0.433	0.428	0.438	1.155	1.142	1.168
Andalusia	0.824	0.817	0.831	2.487	2.465	2.510	2.239	2.223	2.254	0.888	0.881	0.896	0.539	0.534	0.544	1.383	1.371	1.396
Murcia	0.618	0.611	0.625	1.782	1.761	1.804	3.336	3.301	3.372	1.259	1.244	1.275	0.320	0.316	0.324	0.974	0.962	0.986
Ceuta	1.165	1.125	1.206	6.090	5.683	6.526	3.191	3.075	3.312	7.420	6.873	8.012	0.267	0.258	0.276	1,06*	0.996	1.122
Melilla	1.361	1.318	1.404	1.846	1.780	1.914	1.802	1.735	1.872	1.380	1.338	1.423	0.022	0.020	0.023	0.804	0.779	0.830
Constant	18.808			1.252			0.653			6.127			11.580			3.257
N			1,890			1,822			1,771			1,550			1,672			1,639
% initial cases correctly classified			51			50			55			58			57			55.3
initial-2 Log Likelihood			14,979,957			14,690,940			15,473,721			15,173,815			15,104,416			15,227,532
−2 log likelihood model			12,783,797			12,835,856			13,581,084			13,284,476			12,540,701			12,918,283
McFadden Pseudo R²			0.15			0.13			0.12			0.12			0.17			0.15
% cases correctly classified			69			67			66			69			70			71
HD = 0			70			68			57			52			58			62
HD = 1			68			66			74			82			79			78
▲in % cases correctly classified			18.60			16.70			11.50			11.40			12.50			15.20

Notes:

Annual estimates ECVL-2011 to ECVL 2016;

* p-value (Sig.) ≥ 0.05

Source: ECVL microdata (INE) and own elaboration

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