Table 1 Table 1. The two possible... | Emerald Publishing

Table 1

Table 1. The two possible ‘states of nature’ regarding global warming give rise to two options, resulting in four possible outcomes that can be scored asshown

	State of nature 1: anthropogenic global warming is a myth	State of nature 2: anthropogenic global warming is a reality and has a discernable impact
Option A: business as usual	Outcome A1: economy continues to be driven by oil, coal and gas; no anthropogenic environmental crisis; any climate change is beyond human control and is adapted to by hard engineering; only concern is finding enough resources. Score: 2	Outcome A2: uncontrollable climate change; IPCC predictions realised; disaster; effects are locked in; too late to shift to low-carbon-dioxide renewables. Score: -10
Option B: move to a low-carbon-dioxide economy	Outcome B1: unnecessary investment in low-carbon-dioxide energy sources; any climate change effects are beyond human control and are adapted to by hard engineering; energy supply met by combination of fossil fuels, nuclear and renewables. Score: -2	Outcome B2: investment in low-carbon-dioxide renewables and nuclear attenuate locked-in effects; environmental disaster avoided/mitigated. Score: 2

	State of nature 1: anthropogenic global warming is a myth	State of nature 2: anthropogenic global warming is a reality and has a discernable impact
Option A: business as usual	Outcome A1: economy continues to be driven by oil, coal and gas; no anthropogenic environmental crisis; any climate change is beyond human control and is adapted to by hard engineering; only concern is finding enough resources. Score: 2	Outcome A2: uncontrollable climate change; IPCC predictions realised; disaster; effects are locked in; too late to shift to low-carbon-dioxide renewables. Score: -10
Option B: move to a low-carbon-dioxide economy	Outcome B1: unnecessary investment in low-carbon-dioxide energy sources; any climate change effects are beyond human control and are adapted to by hard engineering; energy supply met by combination of fossil fuels, nuclear and renewables. Score: -2	Outcome B2: investment in low-carbon-dioxide renewables and nuclear attenuate locked-in effects; environmental disaster avoided/mitigated. Score: 2