Table 4. Sensitivity analyzes of the...

Table 4.

Sensitivity analyzes of the cost-effectiveness of a TTQ strategy

Scenario	Incremental cost	Incremental QALYs	Cost-effectiveness ratio	Benefit-to-cost ratio (exc. health)	Benefit-to cost-ratio (inc. health)
Base case	−52,386,318 €	4,306	Dominating	7.0	19.4
Positive testing rate (base case = 10%^a)
5%	−21,834,780 €	2,153	Dominating	3.5	9.7
15%	−82,937,857 €	6,460	Dominating	10.5	29.0
Number of close contacts (base case = 3^b)
1	−35,334,297 €	3,105	Dominating	5.1	14.0
5	−69,438,340 €	5,508	Dominating	9.0	24.8
Positive testing rate among close contacts (base case = 24%)
10%	−37,465,800 €	3,255	Dominating	5.3	14.6
40%	−69,438,340 €	5,508	Dominating	9.0	22.9
% with potential for transmission by the time of detection (base case = 80%^c)
60%	−30,167,018 €	2,740	Dominating	4.5	12.3
90%	−63,495,969 €	5,089	Dominating	8.3	22.9
Adherence rate to isolation (base case = 75%^c)
60%	−35,721,843 €	3,132	Dominating	5.1	14.1
90%	−69,050,794 €	5,481	Dominating	8.9	24.6
Basic reproductive ratio (base case = 1^d)
0.8	−40,165,703 €	3,445	Dominating	5.6	15.5
1.2	−64,606,934 €	5,168	Dominating	8.4	23.2
Number of subsequent fortnights of transmissions (base case = 3^e)
1	− 11,650,934 €	1,435	Dominating	2.3	6.5
5	−93,121,703 €	7,177	Dominating	11.7	32.3
Cost per PCR test (base case = 40 €^e)
20 €	−56,141,518 €	4,306	Dominating	12.3	34.0
60 €	−48,631,118 €	4,306	Dominating	4.9	13.5
% of COVID-19 hospitalized cases suffering long-term consequences (base case = 33%^e)
10%	−41,769,011 €	2,271	Dominating	5.8	12.3
40%	−55,419,835 €	4,888	Dominating	7.4	21.4

Scenario	Incremental cost	Incremental QALYs	Cost-effectiveness ratio	Benefit-to-cost ratio (exc. health)	Benefit-to cost-ratio (inc. health)
Base case	−52,386,318 €	4,306	Dominating	7.0	19.4
Positive testing rate (base case = 10%^a)
5%	−21,834,780 €	2,153	Dominating	3.5	9.7
15%	−82,937,857 €	6,460	Dominating	10.5	29.0
Number of close contacts (base case = 3^b)
1	−35,334,297 €	3,105	Dominating	5.1	14.0
5	−69,438,340 €	5,508	Dominating	9.0	24.8
Positive testing rate among close contacts (base case = 24%)
10%	−37,465,800 €	3,255	Dominating	5.3	14.6
40%	−69,438,340 €	5,508	Dominating	9.0	22.9
% with potential for transmission by the time of detection (base case = 80%^c)
60%	−30,167,018 €	2,740	Dominating	4.5	12.3
90%	−63,495,969 €	5,089	Dominating	8.3	22.9
Adherence rate to isolation (base case = 75%^c)
60%	−35,721,843 €	3,132	Dominating	5.1	14.1
90%	−69,050,794 €	5,481	Dominating	8.9	24.6
Basic reproductive ratio (base case = 1^d)
0.8	−40,165,703 €	3,445	Dominating	5.6	15.5
1.2	−64,606,934 €	5,168	Dominating	8.4	23.2
Number of subsequent fortnights of transmissions (base case = 3^e)
1	− 11,650,934 €	1,435	Dominating	2.3	6.5
5	−93,121,703 €	7,177	Dominating	11.7	32.3
Cost per PCR test (base case = 40 €^e)
20 €	−56,141,518 €	4,306	Dominating	12.3	34.0
60 €	−48,631,118 €	4,306	Dominating	4.9	13.5
% of COVID-19 hospitalized cases suffering long-term consequences (base case = 33%^e)
10%	−41,769,011 €	2,271	Dominating	5.8	12.3
40%	−55,419,835 €	4,888	Dominating	7.4	21.4

Notes:

^aThis is an assumption based on positive testing rates between 9% and 12% in the first weeks of November 2020 as published daily by the Ministry of Health reports: www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov/documentos/Actualizacion_254_COVID-19.pdf;

This is an assumption based on the same value used by Cutler and Summers (2020).

This is an assumption based on the R0 numbers of the first weeks of November 2020 as published daily by the ISCIII: https://coronadatos.es/Evolucion/NumeroReproductivo/ESPA%C3%91A;

This is an assumption

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