Probabilities of moving from one state to another in time intervals when no preventive interventions are executed
| Object type | State at t | State at t + 1 | Object type | State at t | State at t + 1 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | ||||||
| Bridge | Metal | 1a | 0·95 | 0·05 | 0·00 | 0·00 | Earthwork | Embankment | 1 | 0·85 | 0·15 | 0·00 | 0·00 |
| 2 | 0·00 | 0·98 | 0·02 | 0·00 | 2 | 0·00 | 0·97 | 0·03 | 0·00 | ||||
| 3 | 0·00 | 0·00 | 0·97 | 0·03 | 3 | 0·00 | 0·00 | 0·96 | 0·04 | ||||
| 4 | 0·00 | 0·00 | 0·00 | 1·00 | 4 | 0·00 | 0·00 | 0·00 | 1·00 | ||||
| Concrete | 1 | 0·99 | 0·01 | 0·00 | 0·00 | Cutting | 1 | 0·87 | 0·13 | 0·00 | 0·00 | ||
| 2 | 0·00 | 0·97 | 0·03 | 0·00 | 2 | 0·00 | 0·98 | 0·02 | 0·00 | ||||
| 3 | 0·00 | 0·00 | 0·90 | 0·10 | 3 | 0·00 | 0·00 | 0·97 | 0·03 | ||||
| 4 | 0·00 | 0·00 | 0·00 | 1·00 | 4 | 0·00 | 0·00 | 0·00 | 1·00 | ||||
| Masonry | 1 | 0·94 | 0·06 | 0·00 | 0·00 | Switch | Turnout | 1 | 0·50 | 0·50 | 0·00 | 0·00 | |
| 2 | 0·00 | 0·91 | 0·09 | 0·00 | 2 | 0·00 | 0·84 | 0·16 | 0·00 | ||||
| 3 | 0·00 | 0·00 | 0·95 | 0·05 | 3 | 0·00 | 0·00 | 0·70 | 0·30 | ||||
| 4 | 0·00 | 0·00 | 0·00 | 1·00 | 4 | 0·00 | 0·00 | 0·00 | 1·00 | ||||
| Tracks | 1 | 0·70 | 0·30 | 0·00 | 0·00 | ||||||||
| 2 | 0·00 | 0·90 | 0·10 | 0·00 | |||||||||
| 3 | 0·00 | 0·00 | 0·84 | 0·16 | |||||||||
| 4 | 0·00 | 0·00 | 0·00 | 1·00 | |||||||||
| Object type | State at | State at | Object type | State at | State at | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | ||||||
| Bridge | Metal | 1 | 0·95 | 0·05 | 0·00 | 0·00 | Earthwork | Embankment | 1 | 0·85 | 0·15 | 0·00 | 0·00 |
| 2 | 0·00 | 0·98 | 0·02 | 0·00 | 2 | 0·00 | 0·97 | 0·03 | 0·00 | ||||
| 3 | 0·00 | 0·00 | 0·97 | 0·03 | 3 | 0·00 | 0·00 | 0·96 | 0·04 | ||||
| 4 | 0·00 | 0·00 | 0·00 | 1·00 | 4 | 0·00 | 0·00 | 0·00 | 1·00 | ||||
| Concrete | 1 | 0·99 | 0·01 | 0·00 | 0·00 | Cutting | 1 | 0·87 | 0·13 | 0·00 | 0·00 | ||
| 2 | 0·00 | 0·97 | 0·03 | 0·00 | 2 | 0·00 | 0·98 | 0·02 | 0·00 | ||||
| 3 | 0·00 | 0·00 | 0·90 | 0·10 | 3 | 0·00 | 0·00 | 0·97 | 0·03 | ||||
| 4 | 0·00 | 0·00 | 0·00 | 1·00 | 4 | 0·00 | 0·00 | 0·00 | 1·00 | ||||
| Masonry | 1 | 0·94 | 0·06 | 0·00 | 0·00 | Switch | Turnout | 1 | 0·50 | 0·50 | 0·00 | 0·00 | |
| 2 | 0·00 | 0·91 | 0·09 | 0·00 | 2 | 0·00 | 0·84 | 0·16 | 0·00 | ||||
| 3 | 0·00 | 0·00 | 0·95 | 0·05 | 3 | 0·00 | 0·00 | 0·70 | 0·30 | ||||
| 4 | 0·00 | 0·00 | 0·00 | 1·00 | 4 | 0·00 | 0·00 | 0·00 | 1·00 | ||||
| Tracks | 1 | 0·70 | 0·30 | 0·00 | 0·00 | ||||||||
| 2 | 0·00 | 0·90 | 0·10 | 0·00 | |||||||||
| 3 | 0·00 | 0·00 | 0·84 | 0·16 | |||||||||
| 4 | 0·00 | 0·00 | 0·00 | 1·00 | |||||||||
The table is to be read as follows: if a metal bridge is in state 1 at time t, then it has a 0·95 probability of being in state 1 at t + 1, 0·05 probability of being in state 2 at t + 1 and 0 probability of being in state 3 or 4 at t + 1
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