FDI and the onset of intrastate conflict†
| Dep. Var.: Intrastate conflict | Model 1 estimates (S.E.) | Model 2 estimates (S.E.) | Model 3 estimates (S.E.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| FDI_1 | −4.041*** (0.972) | ||
| FDI_(1 + 2) | −0.072 (0.052) | ||
| FDI_(1 + 2+3) | −0.003 (0.049) | ||
| FDI Stock_1 | −0.064 (0.272) | −0.511** (0.362) | −0.657** (0.408) |
| Trade_1 | −0.003 (0.011) | 0.001 (0.011) | −0.004 (0.012) |
| Democracy_1 | 0.882*** (0.237) | 0.777*** (0.252) | 0.730*** (0.243) |
| Democracy2_1 | −0.040*** (0.010) | −0.037*** (0.011) | −0.035*** (0.012) |
| Regime Change | −0.283 (0.469) | −0.254 (0.501) | −0.217 (0.521) |
| Population_1 | 1.843*** (0.566) | 1.476*** (0.390) | 1.452*** (0.426) |
| GDP Growth_1 | 0.021 (0.031) | 0.020 (0.030) | 0.008 (0.037) |
| Ethnic Fractionalization | 4.530*** (1.320) | 4.501*** (1.222) | 4.236*** (1.278) |
| Religious Fractionalization | −1.601* (2.098) | −1.027 (1.636) | −0.742 (1.704) |
| Mountains | 0.418** (0.314) | 0.452*** (0.244) | 0.445*** (0.267) |
| West | −4.845*** (2.089) | −5.198*** (1.820) | −4.942*** (1.874) |
| East Europe | −1.197 (1.280) | −2.133** (0.979) | −1.542* (1.084) |
| Latin America | −4.725*** (1.763) | −3.680*** (1.315) | −3.438*** (1.377) |
| Africa | −2.152 (1.512) | −0.914 (1.120) | −0.914 (1.137) |
| Asia | −3.398*** (1.470) | −2.406*** (1.106) | −2.531 (1.167) |
| Time | 0.694*** (0.155) | 0.616*** (0.151) | 0.593*** (0.144) |
| Time2 | −0.037*** (0.012) | −0.032*** (0.011) | −0.031*** (0.012) |
| Time3 | 0.001*** (0.000) | 0.001*** (0.000) | 0.001*** (0.000) |
| Constant | −29.53*** (4.68) | −25.18*** (4.00) | −25.72*** (5.43) |
| N | 2,738 | 2,555 | 2,434 |
| -2lnL | 775.64 | 719.13 | 688.64 |
| χ2-statistic | 78.93*** | 75.94*** | 71.79*** |
| Dep. Var.: Intrastate conflict | Model 1 estimates (S.E.) | Model 2 estimates (S.E.) | Model 3 estimates (S.E.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| FDI_1 | −4.041*** (0.972) | ||
| FDI_(1 + 2) | −0.072 (0.052) | ||
| FDI_(1 + 2+3) | −0.003 (0.049) | ||
| FDI Stock_1 | −0.064 (0.272) | −0.511** (0.362) | −0.657** (0.408) |
| Trade_1 | −0.003 (0.011) | 0.001 (0.011) | −0.004 (0.012) |
| Democracy_1 | 0.882*** (0.237) | 0.777*** (0.252) | 0.730*** (0.243) |
| Democracy2_1 | −0.040*** (0.010) | −0.037*** (0.011) | −0.035*** (0.012) |
| Regime Change | −0.283 (0.469) | −0.254 (0.501) | −0.217 (0.521) |
| Population_1 | 1.843*** (0.566) | 1.476*** (0.390) | 1.452*** (0.426) |
| GDP Growth_1 | 0.021 (0.031) | 0.020 (0.030) | 0.008 (0.037) |
| Ethnic Fractionalization | 4.530*** (1.320) | 4.501*** (1.222) | 4.236*** (1.278) |
| Religious Fractionalization | −1.601* (2.098) | −1.027 (1.636) | −0.742 (1.704) |
| Mountains | 0.418** (0.314) | 0.452*** (0.244) | 0.445*** (0.267) |
| West | −4.845*** (2.089) | −5.198*** (1.820) | −4.942*** (1.874) |
| East Europe | −1.197 (1.280) | −2.133** (0.979) | −1.542* (1.084) |
| Latin America | −4.725*** (1.763) | −3.680*** (1.315) | −3.438*** (1.377) |
| Africa | −2.152 (1.512) | −0.914 (1.120) | −0.914 (1.137) |
| Asia | −3.398*** (1.470) | −2.406*** (1.106) | −2.531 (1.167) |
| Time | 0.694*** (0.155) | 0.616*** (0.151) | 0.593*** (0.144) |
| Time2 | −0.037*** (0.012) | −0.032*** (0.011) | −0.031*** (0.012) |
| Time3 | 0.001*** (0.000) | 0.001*** (0.000) | 0.001*** (0.000) |
| Constant | −29.53*** (4.68) | −25.18*** (4.00) | −25.72*** (5.43) |
| 2,738 | 2,555 | 2,434 | |
| -2lnL | 775.64 | 719.13 | 688.64 |
| 78.93*** | 75.94*** | 71.79*** |
Note(s): †Random effect logistic regression models with 2SRI; two-tailed tests; Residual terms are not reported here to save space; Bootstrap standard errors in parentheses; Percentile-based confidence intervals, ***p ≤ 0.01, **p ≤ 0.05, *p ≤ 0.10
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