Cross-border M&A, greenfield FDI and the onset of intrastate conflict†
| Dep. Var.:Intrastate conflict | Model 4 estimates (S.E.) | Model 5 estimates (S.E.) | Model 6 estimates (S.E.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| MA_1 | 12.35** (6.69) | ||
| Greenfield FDI_1 | −3.669*** (0.968) | ||
| MA_(1 + 2) | 6.605*** (2.987) | ||
| Greenfield FDI_(1 + 2) | −2.004*** (0.496) | ||
| MA_(1 + 2+3) | 2.705 (1.961) | ||
| Greenfield FDI_(1 + 2+3) | −1.263*** (0.386) | ||
| FDI Stock_1 | 0.009 (0.296) | 0.142 (0.350) | 0.263 (0.403) |
| Trade_1 | 0.005 (0.011) | 0.005 (0.012) | 0.006 (0.013) |
| Democracy_1 | 0.878*** (0.236) | 0.831*** (0.248) | 1.013*** (0.279) |
| Democracy2_1 | −0.040*** (0.010) | −0.039*** (0.011) | −0.047*** (0.012) |
| Regime Change | −0.255 (0.487) | −0.166 (0.473) | −0.252 (0.551) |
| Population_1 | 1.925*** (0.557) | 2.070*** (0.541) | 2.135*** (0.582) |
| GDP Growth_1 | 0.014 (0.033) | 0.015 (0.033) | 0.023 (0.041) |
| Ethnic Fractionalization | 4.507*** (1.335) | 4.612*** (1.457) | 3.733*** (1.482) |
| Religious Fractionalization | −2.916** (2.136) | −3.141** (2.228) | −1.109 (2.370) |
| Mountains | 0.643*** (0.319) | 0.752*** (0.177) | 0.545** (0.353) |
| West | −5.746*** (1.953) | −7.393*** (2.421) | −6.714*** (2.264) |
| East Europe | −0.475 (1.329) | −0.341 (1.398) | −1.099 (1.489) |
| Latin America | −3.747*** (1.676) | −4.536*** (1.675) | −4228*** (1.996) |
| Africa | −0.498 (1.639) | −0.009 (1.831) | −0.739 (1.815) |
| Asia | −1.923 (1.671) | −1.535 (1.770) | −2.793** (1.785) |
| Time | 0.735*** (0.165) | 0.757*** (0.178) | 0.763*** (0.181) |
| Time2 | −0.040*** (0.012) | −0.042*** (0.013) | −0.042*** (0.013) |
| Time3 | 0.001*** (0.000) | 0.001*** (0.000) | 0.001*** (0.000) |
| Constant | −24.51*** (7.62) | −25.94*** (7.20) | −30.73*** (8.51) |
| N | 2,738 | 2,670 | 2,555 |
| -2lnL | 769.16 | 728.77 | 684.30 |
| χ2-statistic | 80.07*** | 69.65*** | 68.44*** |
| Dep. Var.:Intrastate conflict | Model 4 estimates (S.E.) | Model 5 estimates (S.E.) | Model 6 estimates (S.E.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| MA_1 | 12.35** (6.69) | ||
| Greenfield FDI_1 | −3.669*** (0.968) | ||
| MA_(1 + 2) | 6.605*** (2.987) | ||
| Greenfield FDI_(1 + 2) | −2.004*** (0.496) | ||
| MA_(1 + 2+3) | 2.705 (1.961) | ||
| Greenfield FDI_(1 + 2+3) | −1.263*** (0.386) | ||
| FDI Stock_1 | 0.009 (0.296) | 0.142 (0.350) | 0.263 (0.403) |
| Trade_1 | 0.005 (0.011) | 0.005 (0.012) | 0.006 (0.013) |
| Democracy_1 | 0.878*** (0.236) | 0.831*** (0.248) | 1.013*** (0.279) |
| Democracy2_1 | −0.040*** (0.010) | −0.039*** (0.011) | −0.047*** (0.012) |
| Regime Change | −0.255 (0.487) | −0.166 (0.473) | −0.252 (0.551) |
| Population_1 | 1.925*** (0.557) | 2.070*** (0.541) | 2.135*** (0.582) |
| GDP Growth_1 | 0.014 (0.033) | 0.015 (0.033) | 0.023 (0.041) |
| Ethnic Fractionalization | 4.507*** (1.335) | 4.612*** (1.457) | 3.733*** (1.482) |
| Religious Fractionalization | −2.916** (2.136) | −3.141** (2.228) | −1.109 (2.370) |
| Mountains | 0.643*** (0.319) | 0.752*** (0.177) | 0.545** (0.353) |
| West | −5.746*** (1.953) | −7.393*** (2.421) | −6.714*** (2.264) |
| East Europe | −0.475 (1.329) | −0.341 (1.398) | −1.099 (1.489) |
| Latin America | −3.747*** (1.676) | −4.536*** (1.675) | −4228*** (1.996) |
| Africa | −0.498 (1.639) | −0.009 (1.831) | −0.739 (1.815) |
| Asia | −1.923 (1.671) | −1.535 (1.770) | −2.793** (1.785) |
| Time | 0.735*** (0.165) | 0.757*** (0.178) | 0.763*** (0.181) |
| Time2 | −0.040*** (0.012) | −0.042*** (0.013) | −0.042*** (0.013) |
| Time3 | 0.001*** (0.000) | 0.001*** (0.000) | 0.001*** (0.000) |
| Constant | −24.51*** (7.62) | −25.94*** (7.20) | −30.73*** (8.51) |
| N | 2,738 | 2,670 | 2,555 |
| -2lnL | 769.16 | 728.77 | 684.30 |
| 80.07*** | 69.65*** | 68.44*** |
Note(s): † Random effect logistic regression models with 2SRI; two-tailed tests; Residual terms are not reported here to save space; Bootstrap standard errors in parentheses; Percentile-based confidence intervals, ***p ≤ 0.01, **p ≤ 0.05, *p ≤ 0.10
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