Table 4 Information used to develop... | Emerald Publishing

Table 4

Information used to develop uncertainty models

Uncertainty	Information
Population size	The uncertainty associated with population size is modelled by projecting the evolution over the last 30 years (i.e. 1991–2021) into the future as the mean, and increasing the standard deviation over time. The projection provides the mean expected trajectory, around which an increasing standard deviation is set to reflect the possible unexpected future changes.
Precipitation	The uncertainty associated with the evolution of population is modelled from the pattern of the last 110 years (i.e. 1911–2021). The pattern is used to set the future trend, considering a slightly decreasing mean tendency. This was done accounting for the potential consequence of climate changes in the future. Around the mean, a large standard deviation is set to reflect the amplitude of yearly variation registered in the past.
Water required from industry	The industry is expected to increase in production, though possible unexpected future changes are non-negligible in the long term. This result in a model of the water required from industry that considers an increasing mean value and an increasing standard deviation.
External demand for water	The likelihood that adjacent communities will have future water shortages, was modelled as a Poisson distribution with a constant mean rate of occurrence, independent from the previous events.

Uncertainty	Information
Population size	The uncertainty associated with population size is modelled by projecting the evolution over the last 30 years (i.e. 1991–2021) into the future as the mean, and increasing the standard deviation over time. The projection provides the mean expected trajectory, around which an increasing standard deviation is set to reflect the possible unexpected future changes.
Precipitation	The uncertainty associated with the evolution of population is modelled from the pattern of the last 110 years (i.e. 1911–2021). The pattern is used to set the future trend, considering a slightly decreasing mean tendency. This was done accounting for the potential consequence of climate changes in the future. Around the mean, a large standard deviation is set to reflect the amplitude of yearly variation registered in the past.
Water required from industry	The industry is expected to increase in production, though possible unexpected future changes are non-negligible in the long term. This result in a model of the water required from industry that considers an increasing mean value and an increasing standard deviation.
External demand for water	The likelihood that adjacent communities will have future water shortages, was modelled as a Poisson distribution with a constant mean rate of occurrence, independent from the previous events.