Table 1 The critical uncertainties and...

Table 1

The critical uncertainties and their extreme yet plausible outcomes in 2025

Driving force/critical uncertainty 1: length and depth of the crisis
Short and shallow recession	Long and deep recession
Vaccine widely available in 2020; lockdowns and social distancing comes to an end; the economy will recover in 2021 - Consumer confidence restored, high level of welfare, but low level of well-being - Elections/political shift: Economy superior to man, culture and nature; neo-liberalism and populism have increased further - Small role of governments (deregulation, market thinking, privatization and therefore small/marginal public sector), care for citizens is limited - No or limited cooperation between central governments, provinces, municipalities, employer associations, trades unions, trade organisations and entrepreneurs - Governments and individuals create financial buffers to avoid future crises - Public debt has increased, but political measures to weaken the debt put pressure on citizens; profits of large companies flow to shareholders - The financial legacy of the crisis is passed on to the citizens, each gets an equal share, which reinforces the dichotomy in society between rich and poor - Large geopolitical tensions within the EU and between world countries because countries want to protect their own economy and health; little mutual trust and solidarity; open borders and free movement are limited; production from distant countries has been withdrawn in order to guarantee security of supply (de-globalization); more armed and cyber conflicts; US world leadership further eroded; influence of China, Russia, North Korea has increased further - Trade and transport are flourishing; oil prices are high	Vaccine will only become available to the world population in 2022; the COVID-19 virus returns annually in waves as seasonal flu; governments frequently call for a new lockdown; the global economy remains under pressure, and recovery will only be achieved after 2025 - Consumer confidence low, low level of welfare, but high level of well-being - Elections/political shift: People, culture and nature superior to economy; socialist ideas are leading - Strong role of governments; strong public sector, financed with tax money; new type of welfare state for the protection of citizens - Solidarity between central governments, provinces, municipalities, employer associations, trades unions, trade organisations and entrepreneurs for the common goal; joint care for society and the environment in which we live (including greening) - The parties involved share the financial resources - Public debt has become immeasurably large; large companies, if the situation allows, donate part of their profit to the public interest, and vice versa; losses are compensated for in bad times with public money - The financial legacy of the crisis is passed on to the citizens, proportionate to their financial means - Geopolitical solidarity, consensus and cooperation between countries in the EU and between world countries; open borders and free movement of persons; less armed and cyber conflicts - Trade and transport in a deep trough, which results in low oil prices

Driving force/critical uncertainty 1: length and depth of the crisis
Vaccine widely available in 2020; lockdowns and social distancing comes to an end; the economy will recover in 2021- Consumer confidence restored, high level of welfare, but low level of well-being - Elections/political shift: Economy superior to man, culture and nature; neo-liberalism and populism have increased further - Small role of governments (deregulation, market thinking, privatization and therefore small/marginal public sector), care for citizens is limited - No or limited cooperation between central governments, provinces, municipalities, employer associations, trades unions, trade organisations and entrepreneurs - Governments and individuals create financial buffers to avoid future crises - Public debt has increased, but political measures to weaken the debt put pressure on citizens; profits of large companies flow to shareholders - The financial legacy of the crisis is passed on to the citizens, each gets an equal share, which reinforces the dichotomy in society between rich and poor - Large geopolitical tensions within the EU and between world countries because countries want to protect their own economy and health; little mutual trust and solidarity; open borders and free movement are limited; production from distant countries has been withdrawn in order to guarantee security of supply (de-globalization); more armed and cyber conflicts; US world leadership further eroded; influence of China, Russia, North Korea has increased further - Trade and transport are flourishing; oil prices are high	Vaccine will only become available to the world population in 2022; the COVID-19 virus returns annually in waves as seasonal flu; governments frequently call for a new lockdown; the global economy remains under pressure, and recovery will only be achieved after 2025- Consumer confidence low, low level of welfare, but high level of well-being - Elections/political shift: People, culture and nature superior to economy; socialist ideas are leading - Strong role of governments; strong public sector, financed with tax money; new type of welfare state for the protection of citizens - Solidarity between central governments, provinces, municipalities, employer associations, trades unions, trade organisations and entrepreneurs for the common goal; joint care for society and the environment in which we live (including greening) - The parties involved share the financial resources - Public debt has become immeasurably large; large companies, if the situation allows, donate part of their profit to the public interest, and vice versa; losses are compensated for in bad times with public money - The financial legacy of the crisis is passed on to the citizens, proportionate to their financial means - Geopolitical solidarity, consensus and cooperation between countries in the EU and between world countries; open borders and free movement of persons; less armed and cyber conflicts - Trade and transport in a deep trough, which results in low oil prices

Driving force/critical uncertainty 1: length and depth of the crisis

Short and shallow recession

Long and deep recession

Vaccine widely available in 2020; lockdowns and social distancing comes to an end; the economy will recover in 2021

Consumer confidence restored, high level of welfare, but low level of well-being

Elections/political shift: Economy superior to man, culture and nature; neo-liberalism and populism have increased further

Small role of governments (deregulation, market thinking, privatization and therefore small/marginal public sector), care for citizens is limited

No or limited cooperation between central governments, provinces, municipalities, employer associations, trades unions, trade organisations and entrepreneurs

Governments and individuals create financial buffers to avoid future crises

Public debt has increased, but political measures to weaken the debt put pressure on citizens; profits of large companies flow to shareholders

The financial legacy of the crisis is passed on to the citizens, each gets an equal share, which reinforces the dichotomy in society between rich and poor

Large geopolitical tensions within the EU and between world countries because countries want to protect their own economy and health; little mutual trust and solidarity; open borders and free movement are limited; production from distant countries has been withdrawn in order to guarantee security of supply (de-globalization); more armed and cyber conflicts; US world leadership further eroded; influence of China, Russia, North Korea has increased further

Trade and transport are flourishing; oil prices are high

Vaccine will only become available to the world population in 2022; the COVID-19 virus returns annually in waves as seasonal flu; governments frequently call for a new lockdown; the global economy remains under pressure, and recovery will only be achieved after 2025

Consumer confidence low, low level of welfare, but high level of well-being

Elections/political shift: People, culture and nature superior to economy; socialist ideas are leading

Strong role of governments; strong public sector, financed with tax money; new type of welfare state for the protection of citizens

Solidarity between central governments, provinces, municipalities, employer associations, trades unions, trade organisations and entrepreneurs for the common goal; joint care for society and the environment in which we live (including greening)

The parties involved share the financial resources

Public debt has become immeasurably large; large companies, if the situation allows, donate part of their profit to the public interest, and vice versa; losses are compensated for in bad times with public money

The financial legacy of the crisis is passed on to the citizens, proportionate to their financial means

Geopolitical solidarity, consensus and cooperation between countries in the EU and between world countries; open borders and free movement of persons; less armed and cyber conflicts

Trade and transport in a deep trough, which results in low oil prices

Driving force/critical uncertainty 2: moral dilemma of the citizen in its role as consumer
I – orientation (orientation on the self)	We – orientation (orientation on the collective)
- Man has not learned from the crisis and has fallen into old patterns - Values underlying views on nature and the environment remain the same; nature is makeable, humans are the dominant species - The aim is individual prosperity - Focus on material needs. Unlimited drive to consume - People want to stay in control themselves for reasons of privacy - Self-interest is paramount. Rebelling against the other and polarization (race, ethnicity, gender, social class, generations Generation Z vs Generation Z or youth vs elderly - Social media as outlet for discontent about the other. Public sector and authorities have no respect (government, science, police, teachers, etc.)	- The crisis has brought people to repentance - Citizens more aware of the inseparable relationship between man and nature and its effects on health; rethinking of the value of nature, the environment, local residents and traditional media - The aim is collective well-being - Focus on quality of life; consumption is attuned to this - Man is willing to hand over part of control to governments, despite the use of technological tools (drones, facial recognition, apps) - Common interest is paramount; “social hygiene”: people consciously think about the implications of their own actions for others; commitment, togetherness, solidarity, regardless of race, ethnicity, social class, generation, age; local solidarity in street, neighbourhood, district, city and region - Social media are social again, facilitating connections genuine between people; public sector and authorities enjoy full respect (government, science, police, teachers, etc.)

Driving force/critical uncertainty 2: moral dilemma of the citizen in its role as consumer
- Man has not learned from the crisis and has fallen into old patterns - Values underlying views on nature and the environment remain the same; nature is makeable, humans are the dominant species - The aim is individual prosperity - Focus on material needs. Unlimited drive to consume - People want to stay in control themselves for reasons of privacy - Self-interest is paramount. Rebelling against the other and polarization (race, ethnicity, gender, social class, generations Generation Z vs Generation Z or youth vs elderly - Social media as outlet for discontent about the other. Public sector and authorities have no respect (government, science, police, teachers, etc.)	- The crisis has brought people to repentance - Citizens more aware of the inseparable relationship between man and nature and its effects on health; rethinking of the value of nature, the environment, local residents and traditional media - The aim is collective well-being - Focus on quality of life; consumption is attuned to this - Man is willing to hand over part of control to governments, despite the use of technological tools (drones, facial recognition, apps) - Common interest is paramount; “social hygiene”: people consciously think about the implications of their own actions for others; commitment, togetherness, solidarity, regardless of race, ethnicity, social class, generation, age; local solidarity in street, neighbourhood, district, city and region - Social media are social again, facilitating connections genuine between people; public sector and authorities enjoy full respect (government, science, police, teachers, etc.)

Driving force/critical uncertainty 2: moral dilemma of the citizen in its role as consumer

I – orientation (orientation on the self)

We – orientation (orientation on the collective)

Man has not learned from the crisis and has fallen into old patterns

Values underlying views on nature and the environment remain the same; nature is makeable, humans are the dominant species

The aim is individual prosperity

Focus on material needs. Unlimited drive to consume

People want to stay in control themselves for reasons of privacy

Self-interest is paramount. Rebelling against the other and polarization (race, ethnicity, gender, social class, generations Generation Z vs Generation Z or youth vs elderly

Social media as outlet for discontent about the other. Public sector and authorities have no respect (government, science, police, teachers, etc.)

The crisis has brought people to repentance

Citizens more aware of the inseparable relationship between man and nature and its effects on health; rethinking of the value of nature, the environment, local residents and traditional media

The aim is collective well-being

Focus on quality of life; consumption is attuned to this

Man is willing to hand over part of control to governments, despite the use of technological tools (drones, facial recognition, apps)

Common interest is paramount; “social hygiene”: people consciously think about the implications of their own actions for others; commitment, togetherness, solidarity, regardless of race, ethnicity, social class, generation, age; local solidarity in street, neighbourhood, district, city and region

Social media are social again, facilitating connections genuine between people; public sector and authorities enjoy full respect (government, science, police, teachers, etc.)

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