Table 1. Effect of violation of lockdown...

Table 1.

Effect of violation of lockdown norms on daily positive cases.

Italy, 17 March 2020- 20 April 2020.

	(a) OLS Log(p)	(b) NBR p
Sanction_rate(-6)	0.046*** (0.016)	0.045*** (0.013)
time	0.021** (0.009)	0.021*** (0.008)
time²	-0.001*** (0.000)	-0.001*** (0.000)
Day of the week
Monday	-0.045 (0.060)	-0.044 (0.049)
Tuesday	-0.176** (0.070)	-0.176*** (0.058)
Wednesday	-0.211*** (0.066)	-0.205*** (0.055)
Thursday	-0.146** (0.053)	-0.141*** (0.044)
Friday	Ref	ref
Saturday	-0.041 (0.053)	-0.040 (0.044)
Sunday	-0.034 (0.065)	-0.032 (0.053)
n_test	0.000 (0.000)	0.000* (0.000)
_cons	8.228*** (0.126)	8.232*** (0.106)
Over-dispersion parameter		-5.451*** (0.253)
N	35	35
R2/ McFadden’s Pseudo R2	0.90	0.156
Breusch Godfrey 1° order autocorrelation test	Chi2: 0.616;	p-value: 0.43
Breusch Pagan test	Chi2: 1.43;	p-value: 0.23
Shapiro-Wilk Normality test	W: 0.958;	p-value: 0.207
Over dispersion test	Chi2: 649.83;	p-value: 0.000

	(a) OLS Log(p)	(b) NBR p
Sanction_rate(-6)	0.046*** (0.016)	0.045*** (0.013)
time	0.021** (0.009)	0.021*** (0.008)
time²	-0.001*** (0.000)	-0.001*** (0.000)
Day of the week
Monday	-0.045 (0.060)	-0.044 (0.049)
Tuesday	-0.176** (0.070)	-0.176*** (0.058)
Wednesday	-0.211*** (0.066)	-0.205*** (0.055)
Thursday	-0.146** (0.053)	-0.141*** (0.044)
Friday	Ref	ref
Saturday	-0.041 (0.053)	-0.040 (0.044)
Sunday	-0.034 (0.065)	-0.032 (0.053)
n_test	0.000 (0.000)	0.000* (0.000)
_cons	8.228*** (0.126)	8.232*** (0.106)
Over-dispersion parameter		-5.451*** (0.253)
N	35	35
R2/ McFadden’s Pseudo R2	0.90	0.156
Breusch Godfrey 1° order autocorrelation test	Chi2: 0.616;	p-value: 0.43
Breusch Pagan test	Chi2: 1.43;	p-value: 0.23
Shapiro-Wilk Normality test	W: 0.958;	p-value: 0.207
Over dispersion test	Chi2: 649.83;	p-value: 0.000

OLS - ordinary least squares, NBR - negative binomial regression

Standard errors in parentheses

* p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01

Note: n_test is the number of COVID-19 tests carried out each day._const is the constant of the linear model. time and time² capture the quadratic trend in the evolution of contagions. Sanction_rate(-6) is the the ratio between the daily number of fines for the violation of lockdown norms and the number of checks carried out by the Italian Police. This variable is measured six days before the number of contagions.

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