Scenarios for a sustainable tourism industry by 2040 in detail
| “Back to the seventies” | “Captured in fear” |
| The European economy grows faster than in the so-called emerging economies. This leads to a substantial increase in demand for energy. Time for the development of renewable resources is up and to be able to meet the vast growth of energy demand, there is a revival of the growth paradigm, at the costs of sustainable thinking, both within the market and the public sector. There is general support to invest in the development of conventional resources such as shale gas. The environmental lobby is increasingly worried and afraid that the ecosystem becomes irreparably damaged. The tourism industry believes that the management of concentrated mass tourism is more durable than the old school of small-scale localized tourism | The EU economy has still not climbed out of the valley. And as the economies of the BRIC countries and Northern Africa are booming, the backlog of Europe has only increased further. To protect the economy, the European Parliament has, with in its wake the different EU countries, taken a protectionist stance. This puts a brake on technological development, which not only disadvantages economic growth, but also prevents the development of technology for new resources and for the renewal of traditional resources. Thus, the ecosystem is increasingly at risk. Also socially, developments in Europe are not going smoothly: prosperity and welfare are under pressure. To prevent the fat in the fire, the mass media are placed under control, which hampers exchange of ideas, creativity and innovation in the tourism sector. Governments and oligopolists try to control the situation my means of a centralized management of resources |
| “Shoulders to the wheel” | “Unique in the world” |
| Sooner than expected, the growth of the emerging economies has come to an end. Consequently, the relative economic power of Europe has increased, although the EU has not completely recovered from the consequences of the crisis yet. There is a clear revival of international trade and the Southern European countries benefit fully from it. Throughout Europe countries show an increase in wealth. The increasing competition on the world market makes the European tourism business inventive and cooperative, which gives an exponential boost to technological developments. The innovations are mainly aiming at stimulating sustainability. Putting all shoulders to the wheel is the general motto. The recession has resulted in the belief that sustainability is an important condition for further social and economic development | Economic growth in the BRIC countries and Northern Africa proceeds, and, slowly but surely, Europe recovers from the recession, although the backlog of Europe is final. Prosperity and welfare in Europe are on the rise again, which creates a positive mood. To give the domestic industry a boost the EU pursues a protectionist policy in conjunction with stimulating exports, which also benefits tourism. The notion prevails that Europe can distinguish and gain global competitive advantage by focussing completely on sustainable resources. Moreover, this would stop the degradation of and maybe even restore the natural environment. The business participates in the international agreements that are made in Europe with regard to sustainability. To stimulate national and regional production and consumption patterns, and to boost social, economic and environmental sustainability, decision making is decentralized yet centrally coordinated (sharing economy). Small-scale tourism is seen as more durable than localized mass tourism |
| “Back to the seventies” | “Captured in fear” |
| The European economy grows faster than in the so-called emerging economies. This leads to a substantial increase in demand for energy. Time for the development of renewable resources is up and to be able to meet the vast growth of energy demand, there is a revival of the growth paradigm, at the costs of sustainable thinking, both within the market and the public sector. There is general support to invest in the development of conventional resources such as shale gas. The environmental lobby is increasingly worried and afraid that the ecosystem becomes irreparably damaged. The tourism industry believes that the management of concentrated mass tourism is more durable than the old school of small-scale localized tourism | The EU economy has still not climbed out of the valley. And as the economies of the BRIC countries and Northern Africa are booming, the backlog of Europe has only increased further. To protect the economy, the European Parliament has, with in its wake the different EU countries, taken a protectionist stance. This puts a brake on technological development, which not only disadvantages economic growth, but also prevents the development of technology for new resources and for the renewal of traditional resources. Thus, the ecosystem is increasingly at risk. Also socially, developments in Europe are not going smoothly: prosperity and welfare are under pressure. To prevent the fat in the fire, the mass media are placed under control, which hampers exchange of ideas, creativity and innovation in the tourism sector. Governments and oligopolists try to control the situation my means of a centralized management of resources |
| “Shoulders to the wheel” | “Unique in the world” |
| Sooner than expected, the growth of the emerging economies has come to an end. Consequently, the relative economic power of Europe has increased, although the EU has not completely recovered from the consequences of the crisis yet. There is a clear revival of international trade and the Southern European countries benefit fully from it. Throughout Europe countries show an increase in wealth. The increasing competition on the world market makes the European tourism business inventive and cooperative, which gives an exponential boost to technological developments. The innovations are mainly aiming at stimulating sustainability. Putting all shoulders to the wheel is the general motto. The recession has resulted in the belief that sustainability is an important condition for further social and economic development | Economic growth in the BRIC countries and Northern Africa proceeds, and, slowly but surely, Europe recovers from the recession, although the backlog of Europe is final. Prosperity and welfare in Europe are on the rise again, which creates a positive mood. To give the domestic industry a boost the EU pursues a protectionist policy in conjunction with stimulating exports, which also benefits tourism. The notion prevails that Europe can distinguish and gain global competitive advantage by focussing completely on sustainable resources. Moreover, this would stop the degradation of and maybe even restore the natural environment. The business participates in the international agreements that are made in Europe with regard to sustainability. To stimulate national and regional production and consumption patterns, and to boost social, economic and environmental sustainability, decision making is decentralized yet centrally coordinated (sharing economy). Small-scale tourism is seen as more durable than localized mass tourism |
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