Banco itaú long-term macroeconomic projections for 2017 to 2020
| Long-term scenario | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | |
| World economy | |||||||||||
| World GDP Growth | 5,4% | 4,2% | 3,5% | 3,3% | 3,4% | 3,2% | 3,1% | 3,6% | 3,6% | 3,6% | 3,5% |
| EUA | 2,5% | 1,6% | 2,2% | 1,7% | 2,4% | 2,6% | 1,6% | 2,3% | 2,4% | 2,0% | 2,0% |
| Euro Zone | 2,0% | 1,6% | −0,9% | −0,2% | 1,2% | 1,9% | 1,7% | 1,8% | 1,5% | 1,4% | 1,1% |
| Japan | 4,2% | −0,1% | 1,5% | 2,0% | 0,0% | 1,2% | 1,0% | 1,4% | 1,0% | 1,0% | 1,0% |
| China | 10,6% | 9,5% | 7,9% | 7,9% | 7,2% | 7,3% | 6,7% | 6,5% | 5,8% | 5,7% | 5,5% |
| CPI EUA | 1,4% | 3,0% | 1,8% | 1,5% | 0,7% | 0,7% | 2,1% | 2,8% | 2,4% | 2,4% | 2,4% |
| Brazil | |||||||||||
| External sector and exchange rate | |||||||||||
| BRL/USD (Nominal) - End of the Period | 1,66 | 1,87 | 2,05 | 2,36 | 2,66 | 3,96 | 3,26 | 3,25 | 3,35 | 3,35 | 3,35 |
| BRL/USD - year average | 1,76 | 1,68 | 1,95 | 2,16 | 2,35 | 3,33 | 3,49 | 3,18 | 3,30 | 3,35 | 3,35 |
| Trade Balance - USD Bil | 20 | 30 | 19 | 2 | (4) | 20 | 48 | 60 | 40 | 39 | 37 |
| Exports - USD Bil. | 202 | 256 | 243 | 242 | 225 | 191 | 185 | 212 | 207 | 209 | 214 |
| Imports - USD Bil. | 182 | 226 | 223 | 240 | 229 | 171 | 138 | 152 | 167 | 170 | 176 |
| Checking account - % GDP | −3,4% | −2,9% | −3,0% | −3,0% | −4,2% | −3,3% | −1,3% | −1,2% | −2,3% | −2,1% | −2,1% |
| Economic activity | |||||||||||
| Nominal GDP - BRL Bil. | 3.886 | 4.376 | 4.815 | 5.332 | 5.779 | 6.001 | 6.267 | 6.576 | 7.101 | 7.597 | 8.090 |
| Nominal GDP - USD Bil. | 2.208 | 2.612 | 2.463 | 2.468 | 2.455 | 1.802 | 1.797 | 2.067 | 2.149 | 2.269 | 2.416 |
| GDP Real Growth | 7,5% | 4,0% | 1,9% | 3,0% | 0,5% | −3,8% | −3,6% | 1,0% | 4,0% | 3,3% | 2,9% |
| Inflation | |||||||||||
| IPCA | 5,9% | 6,5% | 5,8% | 5,9% | 6,4% | 10,7% | 6,3% | 3,9% | 3,8% | 3,5% | 3,5% |
| INPC | 6,5% | 6,1% | 6,2% | 5,6% | 6,2% | 11,3% | 6,3% | 3,9% | 3,8% | 3,5% | 3,5% |
| IGP-M | 11,3% | 5,1% | 7,8% | 5,5% | 3,7% | 10,5% | 7,2% | 2,2% | 3,8% | 3,6% | 3,5% |
| IPA-M | 13,9% | 4,3% | 8,6% | 5,1% | 2,1% | 11,2% | 7,2% | 2,2% | 3,8% | 3,6% | 3,5% |
| Interest rate | |||||||||||
| Selic - end of the period | 10,75% | 11,00% | 7,25% | 10,00% | 11,75% | 14,25% | 13,75% | 8,25% | 8,25% | 6,75% | 6,50% |
| Selic - year average | 10,0% | 11,7% | 8,5% | 8,4% | 11,0% | 13,6% | 14,2% | 10,2% | 8,3% | 7,2% | 6,5% |
| Real Interest Rate (SELIC/IPCA) - end of the period | 3,9% | 4,9% | 2,5% | 2,4% | 4,3% | 2,6% | 7,4% | 6,1% | 4,3% | 3,5% | 2,9% |
| CDI - end of the period | 10,61% | 10,86% | 7,11% | 9,78% | 11,51% | 14,14% | 13,63% | 8,13% | 8,13% | 6,63% | 6,38% |
| TJLP - % Dec. | 6,00% | 6,00% | 5,50% | 5,00% | 5,00% | 7,00% | 7,50% | 7,00% | 7,00% | 6,25% | 6,50% |
| Public finances | |||||||||||
| Primary Super\bacute\aévit - GDP % | 2,6% | 2,9% | 2,2% | 1,7% | −0,6% | −1,9% | −2,5% | −2,2% | −1,7% | −0,7% | −0,3% |
| Nominal Super\bacute\aévit - GDP % | −2,4% | −2,5% | −2,3% | −3,0% | −6,0% | −10,2% | −9,0% | −7,5% | −6,1% | −5,5% | −4,9% |
| Net Debts - GDP % | 38,0% | 34,5% | 32,3% | 30,6% | 33,1% | 36,0% | 46,2% | 51,5% | 53,4% | 55,0% | 55,6% |
| Gross Debts - GDP % | 51,8% | 51,3% | 53,7% | 51,5% | 56,3% | 65,5% | 69,9% | 74,1% | 74,4% | 75,1% | 75,4% |
| Long-term scenario | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | |
| World GDP Growth | 5,4% | 4,2% | 3,5% | 3,3% | 3,4% | 3,2% | 3,1% | 3,6% | 3,6% | 3,6% | 3,5% |
| EUA | 2,5% | 1,6% | 2,2% | 1,7% | 2,4% | 2,6% | 1,6% | 2,3% | 2,4% | 2,0% | 2,0% |
| Euro Zone | 2,0% | 1,6% | −0,9% | −0,2% | 1,2% | 1,9% | 1,7% | 1,8% | 1,5% | 1,4% | 1,1% |
| Japan | 4,2% | −0,1% | 1,5% | 2,0% | 0,0% | 1,2% | 1,0% | 1,4% | 1,0% | 1,0% | 1,0% |
| China | 10,6% | 9,5% | 7,9% | 7,9% | 7,2% | 7,3% | 6,7% | 6,5% | 5,8% | 5,7% | 5,5% |
| CPI EUA | 1,4% | 3,0% | 1,8% | 1,5% | 0,7% | 0,7% | 2,1% | 2,8% | 2,4% | 2,4% | 2,4% |
| External sector and exchange rate | |||||||||||
| BRL/USD (Nominal) - End of the Period | 1,66 | 1,87 | 2,05 | 2,36 | 2,66 | 3,96 | 3,26 | 3,25 | 3,35 | 3,35 | 3,35 |
| BRL/USD - year average | 1,76 | 1,68 | 1,95 | 2,16 | 2,35 | 3,33 | 3,49 | 3,18 | 3,30 | 3,35 | 3,35 |
| Trade Balance - USD Bil | 20 | 30 | 19 | 2 | (4) | 20 | 48 | 60 | 40 | 39 | 37 |
| Exports - USD Bil. | 202 | 256 | 243 | 242 | 225 | 191 | 185 | 212 | 207 | 209 | 214 |
| Imports - USD Bil. | 182 | 226 | 223 | 240 | 229 | 171 | 138 | 152 | 167 | 170 | 176 |
| Checking account - % GDP | −3,4% | −2,9% | −3,0% | −3,0% | −4,2% | −3,3% | −1,3% | −1,2% | −2,3% | −2,1% | −2,1% |
| Nominal GDP - BRL Bil. | 3.886 | 4.376 | 4.815 | 5.332 | 5.779 | 6.001 | 6.267 | 6.576 | 7.101 | 7.597 | 8.090 |
| Nominal GDP - USD Bil. | 2.208 | 2.612 | 2.463 | 2.468 | 2.455 | 1.802 | 1.797 | 2.067 | 2.149 | 2.269 | 2.416 |
| GDP Real Growth | 7,5% | 4,0% | 1,9% | 3,0% | 0,5% | −3,8% | −3,6% | 1,0% | 4,0% | 3,3% | 2,9% |
| IPCA | 5,9% | 6,5% | 5,8% | 5,9% | 6,4% | 10,7% | 6,3% | 3,9% | 3,8% | 3,5% | 3,5% |
| INPC | 6,5% | 6,1% | 6,2% | 5,6% | 6,2% | 11,3% | 6,3% | 3,9% | 3,8% | 3,5% | 3,5% |
| IGP-M | 11,3% | 5,1% | 7,8% | 5,5% | 3,7% | 10,5% | 7,2% | 2,2% | 3,8% | 3,6% | 3,5% |
| IPA-M | 13,9% | 4,3% | 8,6% | 5,1% | 2,1% | 11,2% | 7,2% | 2,2% | 3,8% | 3,6% | 3,5% |
| Selic - end of the period | 10,75% | 11,00% | 7,25% | 10,00% | 11,75% | 14,25% | 13,75% | 8,25% | 8,25% | 6,75% | 6,50% |
| Selic - year average | 10,0% | 11,7% | 8,5% | 8,4% | 11,0% | 13,6% | 14,2% | 10,2% | 8,3% | 7,2% | 6,5% |
| Real Interest Rate (SELIC/IPCA) - end of the period | 3,9% | 4,9% | 2,5% | 2,4% | 4,3% | 2,6% | 7,4% | 6,1% | 4,3% | 3,5% | 2,9% |
| CDI - end of the period | 10,61% | 10,86% | 7,11% | 9,78% | 11,51% | 14,14% | 13,63% | 8,13% | 8,13% | 6,63% | 6,38% |
| TJLP - % Dec. | 6,00% | 6,00% | 5,50% | 5,00% | 5,00% | 7,00% | 7,50% | 7,00% | 7,00% | 6,25% | 6,50% |
| Primary Super\bacute\aévit - GDP % | 2,6% | 2,9% | 2,2% | 1,7% | −0,6% | −1,9% | −2,5% | −2,2% | −1,7% | −0,7% | −0,3% |
| Nominal Super\bacute\aévit - GDP % | −2,4% | −2,5% | −2,3% | −3,0% | −6,0% | −10,2% | −9,0% | −7,5% | −6,1% | −5,5% | −4,9% |
| Net Debts - GDP % | 38,0% | 34,5% | 32,3% | 30,6% | 33,1% | 36,0% | 46,2% | 51,5% | 53,4% | 55,0% | 55,6% |
| Gross Debts - GDP % | 51,8% | 51,3% | 53,7% | 51,5% | 56,3% | 65,5% | 69,9% | 74,1% | 74,4% | 75,1% | 75,4% |
Sources: Banco itaú. Banco itaú long term projections, 2017. Retrieved from www.itau.com.br/itaubba-pt/analises-economicas/projecoes/longo-prazo-Maio-2017 . Accessed 28 May 2017
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