Estimated models
| Secondary education | Tertiary education | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (0) | Linear model (1) | STR model(2) | Linear model (3) | STR model (4) |
| Dependent variable: economic growth (GDPt) | Transition variable: ENRSt-1 | Transition variable: ENRTt-2 | ||
| “Lower” regime (F = 0) | ||||
| GDPt-1 | 0.25 (0.10) | −1.31 (0.26) | 0.28 (0.08) | 0.66 (0.15) |
| GDPt-2 | 0.19 (0.09) | 1.43 (0.25) | 0.32 (0.14) | |
| ENRS/Tt | 0.15 (0.06) | 0.09 (0.03) | 0.18 (0.06) | |
| ENRS/Tt-1 | −0.50 (0.12) | |||
| ENRS/Tt-2 | ||||
| PHYt | 0.25 (0.03) | 0.23 (0.03) | 0.23 (0.03) | |
| PHYt-1 | 0.56 (0.07) | |||
| PHYt-2 | −0.48 (0.13) | −0.18 (0.07) | ||
| LABS/Tt | −0.85 (0.32) | 0.07 (0.03) | ||
| LABS/Tt-1 | 1.07 (0.36) | 0.12 (0.04) | 0.17 (0.05) | |
| LABS/Tt-2 | 0.16 (0.09) | |||
| EXPt | ||||
| EXPt-1 | 0.07 (0.03) | 0.21 (0.08) | ||
| EXPt-2 | ||||
| Interactions with F(st) | ||||
| F(st)×GDPt-1 | 3.97 (1.38) | −1.35 (0.28) | ||
| F(st)×GDPt-2 | −2.66 (0.80) | |||
| F(st)×ENRS/Tt | −0.34 (0.12) | |||
| F(st)×ENRS/Tt-1 | 0.67 (0.14) | |||
| F(st)×ENRS/Tt-2 | ||||
| F(st)×PHYt | 0.56 (0.14) | |||
| F(st)×PHYt-1 | −1.51 (0.48) | 0.18 (0.07) | ||
| F(st)×PHYt-2 | 0.83 (0.27) | 0.22 (0.07) | ||
| F(st)×LABS/Tt | 1.26 (0.53) | 0.07 (0.03) | ||
| F(st)×LABS/Tt-1 | −1.76 (0.62) | |||
| F(st)×LABS/Tt-2 | ||||
| F(st)×EXPt | 0.08 (0.04) | |||
| F(st)×EXPt-1 | −0.15 (0.08) | |||
| F(st)×EXPt-2 | −0.08 (0.04) | |||
| γ | 2.17 (1.00) | 66.65 (375.65) | ||
| c | 0.015 (0.01) | 0.052 (0.00) | ||
| 0.78 | 0.92 | 0.78 | 0.87 | |
| s2/s2L | 0.25 | 0.33 | ||
| AUTO | 2.89 (0.08) | 3.52 (0.06) | ||
| NL | 2.60 (0.23) | 2.50 (0.32) | ||
| PC | 1.40 (0.38) | 1.09 (0.55) | ||
| Secondary education | Tertiary education | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (0) | Linear model (1) | STR model(2) | Linear model (3) | STR model (4) |
| Dependent variable: economic growth (GDPt) | Transition variable: ENRSt-1 | Transition variable: ENRTt-2 | ||
| “Lower” regime (F = 0) | ||||
| GDPt-1 | 0.25 (0.10) | −1.31 (0.26) | 0.28 (0.08) | 0.66 (0.15) |
| GDPt-2 | 0.19 (0.09) | 1.43 (0.25) | 0.32 (0.14) | |
| ENRS/Tt | 0.15 (0.06) | 0.09 (0.03) | 0.18 (0.06) | |
| ENRS/Tt-1 | −0.50 (0.12) | |||
| ENRS/Tt-2 | ||||
| PHYt | 0.25 (0.03) | 0.23 (0.03) | 0.23 (0.03) | |
| PHYt-1 | 0.56 (0.07) | |||
| PHYt-2 | −0.48 (0.13) | −0.18 (0.07) | ||
| LABS/Tt | −0.85 (0.32) | 0.07 (0.03) | ||
| LABS/Tt-1 | 1.07 (0.36) | 0.12 (0.04) | 0.17 (0.05) | |
| LABS/Tt-2 | 0.16 (0.09) | |||
| EXPt | ||||
| EXPt-1 | 0.07 (0.03) | 0.21 (0.08) | ||
| EXPt-2 | ||||
| Interactions with F(st) | ||||
| F(st)×GDPt-1 | 3.97 (1.38) | −1.35 (0.28) | ||
| F(st)×GDPt-2 | −2.66 (0.80) | |||
| F(st)×ENRS/Tt | −0.34 (0.12) | |||
| F(st)×ENRS/Tt-1 | 0.67 (0.14) | |||
| F(st)×ENRS/Tt-2 | ||||
| F(st)×PHYt | 0.56 (0.14) | |||
| F(st)×PHYt-1 | −1.51 (0.48) | 0.18 (0.07) | ||
| F(st)×PHYt-2 | 0.83 (0.27) | 0.22 (0.07) | ||
| F(st)×LABS/Tt | 1.26 (0.53) | 0.07 (0.03) | ||
| F(st)×LABS/Tt-1 | −1.76 (0.62) | |||
| F(st)×LABS/Tt-2 | ||||
| F(st)×EXPt | 0.08 (0.04) | |||
| F(st)×EXPt-1 | −0.15 (0.08) | |||
| F(st)×EXPt-2 | −0.08 (0.04) | |||
| γ | 2.17 (1.00) | 66.65 (375.65) | ||
| c | 0.015 (0.01) | 0.052 (0.00) | ||
| 0.78 | 0.92 | 0.78 | 0.87 | |
| s2/s2L | 0.25 | 0.33 | ||
| AUTO | 2.89 (0.08) | 3.52 (0.06) | ||
| NL | 2.60 (0.23) | 2.50 (0.32) | ||
| PC | 1.40 (0.38) | 1.09 (0.55) | ||
Notes: Country-level analysis. GDP: Gross Domestic Product; ENRS: enrolment ratio secondary education; ENRT: enrolment ratio tertiary education; PHY: physical capital; LABS: labour force with secondary education; LABT: labour force with tertiary education; EXP: government expenditure on education. All variables are first differences of the logarithmic transformation. Values after regression coefficients are SEs of the estimates; R¯2 is the adjusted coefficient of determination; s2/s2L is the variance ratio of the residuals from the STR model and the linear regression; AUTO is the test for residual autocorrelation of order 2; NL is the test for no remaining nonlinearity; PC is the general parameter constancy test. Numbers in parentheses after misspecification tests statistics are p-values
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