Table 1. Univariate models for EPA...

Table 1.

Univariate models for EPA series

Coefficient/test	Unemployed	Employed	Active
${\hat{ϕ}}_{1}$	0.748 (0.085)	0.797 (0.077)	0.263 (0.144)
${\hat{Θ}}_{1}$	0.722 (0.146)	0.684 (0.099)	0.485 (0.145)
${\hat{σ}}_{a}$	110.247	106.368	77.378
HQ information criterion	832.068	827.014	782.624
DH Test (Normality)	24.297 [0.00001]	12.839 [0.0016]	1.759 [0.415]
LM Test (ARCH(4))	17.821 [0.001]	19.975 [0.0005]	3.029 [0.552]
Q(15)	8.526 [0.807]	6.827 [0.910]	40.371 [0.0001]

Coefficient/test	Unemployed	Employed	Active
${\hat{ϕ}}_{1}$	0.748 (0.085)	0.797 (0.077)	0.263 (0.144)
${\hat{Θ}}_{1}$	0.722 (0.146)	0.684 (0.099)	0.485 (0.145)
${\hat{σ}}_{a}$	110.247	106.368	77.378
HQ information criterion	832.068	827.014	782.624
DH Test (Normality)	24.297 [0.00001]	12.839 [0.0016]	1.759 [0.415]
LM Test (ARCH(4))	17.821 [0.001]	19.975 [0.0005]	3.029 [0.552]
Q(15)	8.526 [0.807]	6.827 [0.910]	40.371 [0.0001]

Notes:

All the models conform to an ARIMA(1,1,0) × (0,1,1)₄ structure, defined as: (1−ϕ₁B)∇₄∇y_t = (1−Θ₁B⁴)a_t, where B is the backward shift operator, such that By_t = y_t₋₁, ∇ ≡ 1 − B, ∇_S ≡ 1 − B^S

Source: Authors’ own work

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