Counterfactual analysis of the 2008 crisis effect on unemployed
| Quarter | Unemployed | Counterfactual* | Difference | Difference/Counterfactual (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 Q4 | 3,206.8 | 2,925.7 (62.5) | 281.1 (62.5) | 9.6 |
| 2009 Q1 | 4,018.2 | 3,280.1 (110.1) | 738.1 (110.1) | 22.5 |
| 2009 Q2 | 4,139.6 | 3,427.3 (140.4) | 712.3 (140.4) | 20.8 |
| 2009 Q3 | 4,124.4 | 3,638.7 (151.2) | 482.7 (151.2) | 13.3 |
| 2009 Q4 | 4,335.0 | 3,950.2 (151.4) | 384.8 (151.4) | 9.7 |
| 2010 Q1 | 4,617.7 | 4,278.9 (140.1) | 338.8 (140.1) | 7.9 |
| 2010 Q2 | 4,655.3 | 4,346.7 (109.0) | 308.6 (109.0) | 7.1 |
| 2010 Q3 | 4,585.4 | 4,482.0 (61.1) | 103.4 (61.1) | 2.3 |
| Quarter | Unemployed | Counterfactual* | Difference | Difference/Counterfactual (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 Q4 | 3,206.8 | 2,925.7 (62.5) | 281.1 (62.5) | 9.6 |
| 2009 Q1 | 4,018.2 | 3,280.1 (110.1) | 738.1 (110.1) | 22.5 |
| 2009 Q2 | 4,139.6 | 3,427.3 (140.4) | 712.3 (140.4) | 20.8 |
| 2009 Q3 | 4,124.4 | 3,638.7 (151.2) | 482.7 (151.2) | 13.3 |
| 2009 Q4 | 4,335.0 | 3,950.2 (151.4) | 384.8 (151.4) | 9.7 |
| 2010 Q1 | 4,617.7 | 4,278.9 (140.1) | 338.8 (140.1) | 7.9 |
| 2010 Q2 | 4,655.3 | 4,346.7 (109.0) | 308.6 (109.0) | 7.1 |
| 2010 Q3 | 4,585.4 | 4,482.0 (61.1) | 103.4 (61.1) | 2.3 |
Notes:
*The control is computed by subtracting from the observed unemployed figure the corresponding coefficients of the intervention model, which are shown in the “Difference” column. The standard errors of both estimates, indicated in parentheses, are the same