Counterfactual analysis of the 2020 crisis effect on unemployed
| Quarter | Unemployed | Counterfactual* | Difference | Difference/Counterfactual (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 Q1 | 3,313.0 | 3,222.4 (78.3) | 90.6 (78.3) | 2.8 |
| 2020 Q2 | 3,368.0 | 2,999.3 (161.5) | 368.7 (161.5) | 12.3 |
| 2020 Q3 | 3,722.9 | 2,885.5 (161.5) | 837.4 (161.5) | 29.0 |
| 2020 Q4 | 3,719.8 | 2,864.5 (342.1) | 855.3 (342.1) | 29.9 |
| 2021 Q1 | 3,653.9 | 2,896.3 (455.5) | 757.6 (455.5) | 26.2 |
| 2021 Q2 | 3,543.8 | 2,674.2 (577.9) | 869.6 (577.9) | 32.5 |
| 2021 Q3 | 3,416.7 | 2,561.2 (702.7) | 855.5 (702.7) | 33.4 |
| 2021 Q4 | 3,103.8 | 2,540.9 (826.6) | 562.9 (826.6) | 22.2 |
| 2022 Q1 | 3,174.7 | 2,573.2 (965.5) | 601.5 (965.5) | 23.4 |
| 2022 Q2 | 2,919.4 | 2,351.6 (1,111.5) | 567.8 (1,111.5) | 24.2 |
| 2022 Q3 | 2,980.2 | 2,238.9 (1,259.3) | 741.3 (1,259.3) | 33.1 |
| Quarter | Unemployed | Counterfactual* | Difference | Difference/Counterfactual (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 Q1 | 3,313.0 | 3,222.4 (78.3) | 90.6 (78.3) | 2.8 |
| 2020 Q2 | 3,368.0 | 2,999.3 (161.5) | 368.7 (161.5) | 12.3 |
| 2020 Q3 | 3,722.9 | 2,885.5 (161.5) | 837.4 (161.5) | 29.0 |
| 2020 Q4 | 3,719.8 | 2,864.5 (342.1) | 855.3 (342.1) | 29.9 |
| 2021 Q1 | 3,653.9 | 2,896.3 (455.5) | 757.6 (455.5) | 26.2 |
| 2021 Q2 | 3,543.8 | 2,674.2 (577.9) | 869.6 (577.9) | 32.5 |
| 2021 Q3 | 3,416.7 | 2,561.2 (702.7) | 855.5 (702.7) | 33.4 |
| 2021 Q4 | 3,103.8 | 2,540.9 (826.6) | 562.9 (826.6) | 22.2 |
| 2022 Q1 | 3,174.7 | 2,573.2 (965.5) | 601.5 (965.5) | 23.4 |
| 2022 Q2 | 2,919.4 | 2,351.6 (1,111.5) | 567.8 (1,111.5) | 24.2 |
| 2022 Q3 | 2,980.2 | 2,238.9 (1,259.3) | 741.3 (1,259.3) | 33.1 |
Notes:
*The counterfactual figures are out-of-sample forecasts computed using the intervention model. The figures in parentheses are the standard errors of the corresponding forecasts