Table 4

Political uncertainty and asymmetry of operating costs: instrumental variable approach

VariableFirst stageSecond stage
ΔlnSALEt×TURNOVERt
(1)
ΔlnSALEt×Dt×TURNOVERt
(2)
ΔlnXOPR
(3)
Panel A: Turnover of city heads
ΔlnSALEt×AGE−0.979*** (−17.283)  
ΔlnSALEt×TURNOVER_PEER0.278*** (22.007)  
ΔlnSALEt×Dt×AGE −1.299*** (−22.749) 
ΔlnSALEt×Dt×TURNOVER_PEER 0.204*** (15.846) 
ΔlnSALEt4.274*** (18.819)−0.004 (−0.521)0.969*** (44.108)
ΔlnSALEt×Dt−0.015 (−0.365)5.579*** (24.336)−0.077*** (−3.509)
ΔlnSALEt×TURNOVER_HEADt  −0.025 (−0.725)
ΔlnSALEt×Dt×TURNOVER_HEADt  −0.188*** (−3.522)
ControlYesYesYes
Year fixed effectYesYesYes
Firm fixed effectYesYesYes
Observations20,39220,39220,392
Adjusted R20.3110.3150.735
Panel B: Turnover of city mayors
ΔlnSALEt×AGE−0.979*** (−18.895)  
ΔlnSALEt×TURNOVER_PEER0.162*** (12.606)  
ΔlnSALEt×Dt×AGE −1.197*** (−22.012) 
ΔlnSALEt×Dt×TURNOVER_PEER 0.097*** (7.391) 
ΔlnSALEt4.283*** (20.729)0.000 (0.043)0.978*** (62.703)
ΔlnSALEt×Dt−0.025 (−0.585)5.156*** (23.642)−0.093*** (−2.652)
ΔlnSALEt×TURNOVER_MAYORt  0.011 (0.411)
ΔlnSALEt×Dt×TURNOVER_MAYORt  −0.106** (−2.336)
ControlYesYesYes
Year fixed effectYesYesYes
Firm fixed effectYesYesYes
Observations20,39220,39220,392
Adjusted R20.2960.3110.680

Note(s): This table presents the results of 2SLS regressions. We use local officials' age (AGE) and the mean value of official turnover of other cities in the same province (TURNOVER_PEER) as instrumental variables for local official turnover. In the first stage, we regress endogenous variables ΔlnSALEt×TURNOVERt and ΔlnSALEt×Dt×TURNOVERt on ΔlnSALEt×AGE, ΔlnSALEt×TURNOVER_PEER,  ΔlnSALEt×Dt×AGE, ΔlnSALEt×Dt×TURNOVER_PEER and control variables used in the baseline model. In the second stage, we replace ΔlnSALEt×TURNOVERt and ΔlnSALEt×Dt×TURNOVERt by their predicted values from the first stage and re-run the baseline regression. Panel A reports the estimation results based on the turnover of city heads and Panel B reports the estimation results based on the turnover of city mayors. The subscript t denotes the time index, while prefecture-city and firm indices are omitted for brevity. The dependent variable is ΔlnXOPR, the log-change in operating costs. ΔlnSALE is the log-change in sales. D is a dummy variable that takes the value of one if sales decrease, and zero otherwise. TURNOVER_HEAD is a dummy variable that takes the value of one if the city head is changed in year t, and zero otherwise. TURNOVER_MAYOR is a dummy variable that takes the value of one if the city mayor is changed in year t, and zero otherwise. All variables are defined in the Table A1. Regressions control for both firm and year fixed effects. Robust t-statistics reported in parentheses are based on standard errors clustered by firm. In this table, *, **, and *** denote statistical significance at the 10, 5, and 1% levels, respectively

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