Validity of LnP/V as the overvaluation likelihood measure
| Variable | LnP/V:Q1 | LnP/V:Q2 | LnP/V:Q3 | LnP/V:Q4 | LnP/V:Q5 | Q5 - Q1 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N | Mean | N | Mean | N | Mean | N | Mean | N | Mean | Diff | t | |
| Rt | 49,244 | −10.52% | 49,244 | 4.51% | 49,244 | 12.16% | 49,244 | 21.35% | 49,244 | 39.67% | 50.19% | 120.00 |
| Rt + 1 | 46,259 | 31.15% | 46,259 | 18.91% | 46,259 | 13.90% | 46,259 | 9.58% | 46,259 | 4.58% | −26.57% | −42.24 |
| Shortt | 46,391 | 0.43% | 46,392 | 0.75% | 46,392 | 1.12% | 46,392 | 1.49% | 46,392 | 1.82% | 1.38% | 78.37 |
| % (Shortt > 0) | 46,391 | 24.63% | 46,392 | 38.25% | 46,392 | 48.36% | 46,392 | 55.07% | 46,392 | 52.01% | 27.38% | 89.39 |
| NetStkIssuet + 1 | 46,384 | 4.32% | 46,385 | 3.06% | 46,385 | 3.62% | 46,385 | 4.55% | 46,385 | 7.18% | 2.86% | 25.09 |
| % (NetStkIssuet + 1 > 0) | 46,384 | 52.38% | 46,385 | 59.08% | 46,385 | 64.67% | 46,385 | 69.12% | 46,385 | 76.75% | 24.37% | 80.23 |
| SalesByACQt + 1 | 43,605 | 0.91% | 43,606 | 1.33% | 43,606 | 1.58% | 43,606 | 1.98% | 43,606 | 2.60% | 1.69% | 33.87 |
| % (SalesByACQt + 1 > 0) | 46,384 | 4.26% | 46,385 | 6.67% | 46,385 | 8.11% | 46,385 | 9.99% | 46,385 | 12.65% | 8.39% | 45.05 |
| %(SalesByACQt + 1 > 0.2) | 43,605 | 1.86% | 43,606 | 2.69% | 43,606 | 3.18% | 43,606 | 4.05% | 43,606 | 5.38% | 3.52% | 27.91 |
| Variable | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | Mean | Mean | Mean | Mean | Diff | |||||||
| 49,244 | −10.52% | 49,244 | 4.51% | 49,244 | 12.16% | 49,244 | 21.35% | 49,244 | 39.67% | 50.19% | 120.00 | |
| 46,259 | 31.15% | 46,259 | 18.91% | 46,259 | 13.90% | 46,259 | 9.58% | 46,259 | 4.58% | −26.57% | −42.24 | |
| 46,391 | 0.43% | 46,392 | 0.75% | 46,392 | 1.12% | 46,392 | 1.49% | 46,392 | 1.82% | 1.38% | 78.37 | |
| % ( | 46,391 | 24.63% | 46,392 | 38.25% | 46,392 | 48.36% | 46,392 | 55.07% | 46,392 | 52.01% | 27.38% | 89.39 |
| 46,384 | 4.32% | 46,385 | 3.06% | 46,385 | 3.62% | 46,385 | 4.55% | 46,385 | 7.18% | 2.86% | 25.09 | |
| % ( | 46,384 | 52.38% | 46,385 | 59.08% | 46,385 | 64.67% | 46,385 | 69.12% | 46,385 | 76.75% | 24.37% | 80.23 |
| 43,605 | 0.91% | 43,606 | 1.33% | 43,606 | 1.58% | 43,606 | 1.98% | 43,606 | 2.60% | 1.69% | 33.87 | |
| % ( | 46,384 | 4.26% | 46,385 | 6.67% | 46,385 | 8.11% | 46,385 | 9.99% | 46,385 | 12.65% | 8.39% | 45.05 |
| %( | 43,605 | 1.86% | 43,606 | 2.69% | 43,606 | 3.18% | 43,606 | 4.05% | 43,606 | 5.38% | 3.52% | 27.91 |
Note(s): This table presents comparisons between different groups along dimensions that prior studies find vary with equity overvaluation. is the difference between the natural logarithm of the market value of equity at the end of fiscal year t and the natural logarithm of the estimated intrinsic value of equity obtained using accounting information from financial statements of fiscal year t; indicates the i-th quintile of , i = 1 to 5; Rt (Rt + 1) is stock return over the 12-month period of fiscal year t (t + 1); Shortt is the percentage of outstanding common shares shorted at the fiscal year-end of t; NetStkIssuet + 1 is change in the natural logarithm of split-adjusted shares outstanding from fiscal year t to fiscal year t + 1; and SalesByACQt + 1 is the percentage of sales arising from acquisitions in t + 1
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