Correlation analysis for 1986–2016 (31 years; N = 102,928)
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (10) | (11) | (12) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panel A | |||||||||||||
| (1) | ΔIRISKt | 0.514 | 0.487 | 0.296 | 0.242 | 0.300 | 0.270 | 0.299 | 0.146 | 0.191 | 0.218 | 0.092 | |
| (2) | ΔIRISKt3 | 0.631 | 0.693 | 0.170 | 0.126 | 0.177 | 0.146 | 0.174 | 0.081 | 0.110 | 0.112 | 0.073 | |
| (3) | ΔIRISKt5 | 0.632 | 0.780 | 0.179 | 0.133 | 0.190 | 0.152 | 0.185 | 0.094 | 0.113 | 0.116 | 0.073 | |
| (4) | Δ(CL/CE)t | 0.334 | 0.263 | 0.272 | 0.513 | 0.825 | 0.682 | 0.897 | 0.316 | 0.642 | 0.472 | 0.197 | |
| (5) | Δ(NCL/CE)t | 0.265 | 0.190 | 0.196 | 0.408 | 0.642 | 0.795 | 0.549 | 0.504 | 0.297 | 0.900 | 0.177 | |
| (6) | Δ(TOLC/E)t | 0.342 | 0.266 | 0.277 | 0.781 | 0.642 | 0.612 | 0.886 | 0.575 | 0.403 | 0.515 | 0.209 | |
| (7) | Δ(TFL/CE)t | 0.313 | 0.238 | 0.245 | 0.716 | 0.774 | 0.649 | 0.607 | 0.303 | 0.587 | 0.832 | 0.191 | |
| (8) | Δ(COL/CE)t | 0.336 | 0.256 | 0.267 | 0.871 | 0.490 | 0.849 | 0.637 | 0.317 | 0.400 | 0.514 | 0.203 | |
| (9) | Δ(NCOL/CE)t | 0.177 | 0.142 | 0.147 | 0.272 | 0.535 | 0.638 | 0.334 | 0.254 | 0.164 | 0.266 | 0.105 | |
| (10) | Δ(STD/CE)t | 0.240 | 0.201 | 0.208 | 0.784 | 0.214 | 0.467 | 0.621 | 0.458 | 0.213 | 0.282 | 0.121 | |
| (11) | Δ(NCFL/CE)t | 0.232 | 0.156 | 0.161 | 0.369 | 0.904 | 0.484 | 0.793 | 0.474 | 0.260 | 0.162 | 0.165 | |
| (12) | Δ(PS/CE)t | 0.014 | 0.012 | 0.009 | 0.036 | 0.034 | 0.037 | 0.037 | 0.035 | −0.003! | 0.035 | 0.030 | |
| Note(s): All coefficients are significant at the 5% level, except those with # – not significant and ! – significant at the 10% level. The upper right corner reports Pearson correlation coefficients and the left lower corner reports Spearman correlation coefficients. Δ signifies the difference in the level of the variable between period t and t−1. Appendix 2 provides variable definitions | |||||||||||||
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (10) | (11) | (12) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | Δ | 0.514 | 0.487 | 0.296 | 0.242 | 0.300 | 0.270 | 0.299 | 0.146 | 0.191 | 0.218 | 0.092 | |
| (2) | Δ | 0.631 | 0.693 | 0.170 | 0.126 | 0.177 | 0.146 | 0.174 | 0.081 | 0.110 | 0.112 | 0.073 | |
| (3) | Δ | 0.632 | 0.780 | 0.179 | 0.133 | 0.190 | 0.152 | 0.185 | 0.094 | 0.113 | 0.116 | 0.073 | |
| (4) | Δ( | 0.334 | 0.263 | 0.272 | 0.513 | 0.825 | 0.682 | 0.897 | 0.316 | 0.642 | 0.472 | 0.197 | |
| (5) | Δ( | 0.265 | 0.190 | 0.196 | 0.408 | 0.642 | 0.795 | 0.549 | 0.504 | 0.297 | 0.900 | 0.177 | |
| (6) | Δ( | 0.342 | 0.266 | 0.277 | 0.781 | 0.642 | 0.612 | 0.886 | 0.575 | 0.403 | 0.515 | 0.209 | |
| (7) | Δ( | 0.313 | 0.238 | 0.245 | 0.716 | 0.774 | 0.649 | 0.607 | 0.303 | 0.587 | 0.832 | 0.191 | |
| (8) | Δ( | 0.336 | 0.256 | 0.267 | 0.871 | 0.490 | 0.849 | 0.637 | 0.317 | 0.400 | 0.514 | 0.203 | |
| (9) | Δ( | 0.177 | 0.142 | 0.147 | 0.272 | 0.535 | 0.638 | 0.334 | 0.254 | 0.164 | 0.266 | 0.105 | |
| (10) | Δ( | 0.240 | 0.201 | 0.208 | 0.784 | 0.214 | 0.467 | 0.621 | 0.458 | 0.213 | 0.282 | 0.121 | |
| (11) | Δ( | 0.232 | 0.156 | 0.161 | 0.369 | 0.904 | 0.484 | 0.793 | 0.474 | 0.260 | 0.162 | 0.165 | |
| (12) | Δ( | 0.014 | 0.012 | 0.009 | 0.036 | 0.034 | 0.037 | 0.037 | 0.035 | −0.003! | 0.035 | 0.030 | |
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (10) | (11) | (12) | (13) | (14) | (15) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panel B | ||||||||||||||||
| (1) | ΔIRISKt | 0.514 | 0.487 | 0.299 | 0.038 | 0.191 | 0.242 | 0.215 | 0.120 | 0.083 | 0.121 | 0.050 | 0.078 | 0.080 | 0.045 | |
| (2) | ΔIRISKt3 | 0.631 | 0.693 | 0.174 | 0.023 | 0.110 | 0.126 | 0.111 | 0.061 | 0.025 | 0.078 | 0.043 | 0.059 | 0.066 | 0.032 | |
| (3) | ΔIRISKt5 | 0.632 | 0.780 | 0.185 | 0.032 | 0.113 | 0.133 | 0.115 | 0.067 | 0.038 | 0.089 | 0.044 | 0.060 | 0.067 | 0.033 | |
| (4) | Δ(COLx/CE)t | 0.336 | 0.256 | 0.267 | 0.202 | 0.400 | 0.549 | 0.509 | 0.266 | 0.255 | 0.237 | 0.111 | 0.174 | 0.177 | 0.093 | |
| (5) | Δ(IP/CE)t | 0.068 | 0.053 | 0.055 | 0.203 | 0.044 | 0.092 | 0.077 | 0.041 | 0.061 | 0.071 | 0.028 | 0.033 | 0.033 | 0.023 | |
| (6) | Δ(STD/CE)t | 0.240 | 0.201 | 0.208 | 0.458 | 0.079 | 0.297 | 0.275 | 0.228 | 0.162 | 0.104 | 0.064 | 0.105 | 0.104 | 0.058 | |
| (7) | Δ(NCL/ CE)t | 0.265 | 0.190 | 0.196 | 0.490 | 0.127 | 0.214 | 0.903 | 0.282 | 0.356 | 0.382 | 0.096 | 0.155 | 0.152 | 0.089 | |
| (8) | Δ(LTD/CE)t | 0.229 | 0.152 | 0.157 | 0.464 | 0.110 | 0.148 | 0.906 | 0.308 | 0.284 | 0.183 | 0.088 | 0.144 | 0.140 | 0.083 | |
| (9) | Δ(CapL/CE)t | 0.132 | 0.084 | 0.091 | 0.284 | 0.064 | 0.201 | 0.289 | 0.304 | 0.112 | −0.179 | 0.049 | 0.077 | 0.077 | 0.044 | |
| (10) | Δ(DTX/CE)t | 0.100 | 0.046 | 0.052 | 0.196 | 0.068 | 0.116 | 0.323 | 0.291 | 0.103 | 0.088 | 0.041 | 0.061 | 0.053 | 0.047 | |
| (11) | Δ(ONCL/CE)t | 0.157 | 0.134 | 0.138 | 0.211 | 0.083 | 0.188 | 0.467 | 0.211 | −0.136 | 0.088 | 0.044 | 0.079 | 0.075 | 0.036 | |
| (12) | Δ(PSR/CE)t | 0.009 | 0.008 | 0.005# | 0.027 | 0.017 | 0.028 | 0.027 | 0.024 | 0.023 | 0.000! | −0.009 | 0.043 | 0.373 | 0.456 | |
| (13) | Δ(PSNR/CE)t | 0.048 | 0.038 | 0.040 | 0.084 | 0.017 | 0.076 | 0.069 | 0.058 | 0.021 | 0.007 | 0.052 | −0.000! | 0.706 | 0.333 | |
| (14) | Δ(PSC/CE)t | 0.064 | 0.054 | 0.057 | 0.113 | 0.018 | 0.093 | 0.101 | 0.076 | 0.041 | 0.012 | 0.057 | 0.033 | 0.836 | −0.002! | |
| (15) | Δ(PSNC/CE)t | 0.007 | 0.006# | 0.003! | 0.022 | 0.016 | 0.025 | 0.022 | 0.021 | 0.021 | −0.000! | −0.011 | 0.998 | 0.003! | 0.001! | |
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (10) | (11) | (12) | (13) | (14) | (15) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | Δ | 0.514 | 0.487 | 0.299 | 0.038 | 0.191 | 0.242 | 0.215 | 0.120 | 0.083 | 0.121 | 0.050 | 0.078 | 0.080 | 0.045 | |
| (2) | Δ | 0.631 | 0.693 | 0.174 | 0.023 | 0.110 | 0.126 | 0.111 | 0.061 | 0.025 | 0.078 | 0.043 | 0.059 | 0.066 | 0.032 | |
| (3) | Δ | 0.632 | 0.780 | 0.185 | 0.032 | 0.113 | 0.133 | 0.115 | 0.067 | 0.038 | 0.089 | 0.044 | 0.060 | 0.067 | 0.033 | |
| (4) | Δ( | 0.336 | 0.256 | 0.267 | 0.202 | 0.400 | 0.549 | 0.509 | 0.266 | 0.255 | 0.237 | 0.111 | 0.174 | 0.177 | 0.093 | |
| (5) | Δ( | 0.068 | 0.053 | 0.055 | 0.203 | 0.044 | 0.092 | 0.077 | 0.041 | 0.061 | 0.071 | 0.028 | 0.033 | 0.033 | 0.023 | |
| (6) | Δ( | 0.240 | 0.201 | 0.208 | 0.458 | 0.079 | 0.297 | 0.275 | 0.228 | 0.162 | 0.104 | 0.064 | 0.105 | 0.104 | 0.058 | |
| (7) | Δ( | 0.265 | 0.190 | 0.196 | 0.490 | 0.127 | 0.214 | 0.903 | 0.282 | 0.356 | 0.382 | 0.096 | 0.155 | 0.152 | 0.089 | |
| (8) | Δ( | 0.229 | 0.152 | 0.157 | 0.464 | 0.110 | 0.148 | 0.906 | 0.308 | 0.284 | 0.183 | 0.088 | 0.144 | 0.140 | 0.083 | |
| (9) | Δ( | 0.132 | 0.084 | 0.091 | 0.284 | 0.064 | 0.201 | 0.289 | 0.304 | 0.112 | −0.179 | 0.049 | 0.077 | 0.077 | 0.044 | |
| (10) | Δ( | 0.100 | 0.046 | 0.052 | 0.196 | 0.068 | 0.116 | 0.323 | 0.291 | 0.103 | 0.088 | 0.041 | 0.061 | 0.053 | 0.047 | |
| (11) | Δ( | 0.157 | 0.134 | 0.138 | 0.211 | 0.083 | 0.188 | 0.467 | 0.211 | −0.136 | 0.088 | 0.044 | 0.079 | 0.075 | 0.036 | |
| (12) | Δ( | 0.009 | 0.008 | 0.005# | 0.027 | 0.017 | 0.028 | 0.027 | 0.024 | 0.023 | 0.000! | −0.009 | 0.043 | 0.373 | 0.456 | |
| (13) | Δ( | 0.048 | 0.038 | 0.040 | 0.084 | 0.017 | 0.076 | 0.069 | 0.058 | 0.021 | 0.007 | 0.052 | −0.000! | 0.706 | 0.333 | |
| (14) | Δ( | 0.064 | 0.054 | 0.057 | 0.113 | 0.018 | 0.093 | 0.101 | 0.076 | 0.041 | 0.012 | 0.057 | 0.033 | 0.836 | −0.002! | |
| (15) | Δ( | 0.007 | 0.006# | 0.003! | 0.022 | 0.016 | 0.025 | 0.022 | 0.021 | 0.021 | −0.000! | −0.011 | 0.998 | 0.003! | 0.001! | |
Note(s): All coefficients are significant at the 5% level, except those with # – not significant, and ! – significant at the 10% level. The upper right corner reports Pearson correlation coefficients, and the left lower corner reports Spearman correlation coefficients. Δ signifies the difference in the level of the variable between period t and t−1. Appendix 2 provides variable definitions
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