Financial distress analysis
| Panel A: Association of leverage components and idiosyncratic risk – First-difference OLS regression (1986–2016) with lagged levels and fixed effects for size deciles, book to market deciles, industry and year (N = 102,928) – Comparison of financially distressed firms (N = 28,079) to non-distressed firms (N = 74,849) – Total liabilities | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equation (4a) | |||||||||
| Dependent/Independent variable | ΔIRISKt | ΔIRISKt3 | ΔIRISKt5 | ||||||
| Distressed | Non-distressed | Diff. (p-value) | Distressed | Non-distressed | Diff. (p-value) | Distressed | Non-distressed | Diff. (p-value) | |
| Δ(TL/CE)t | 0.2921*** (38.5449) | 0.2093*** (28.9193) | 0.0828*** (0.0000) | 0.2209*** (32.0554) | 0.1251*** (17.8885) | 0.0958*** (0.0000) | 0.2283*** (31.8976) | 0.1265*** (16.9214) | 0.1018*** (0.0000) |
| Δ(STD_ROA)t | 0.0844*** (11.9629) | 0.0226*** (4.2872) | 0.0618*** (0.0000) | 0.0931*** (14.3050) | 0.0856*** (17.0392) | 0.0075 (0.3630) | 0.0828*** (12.4545) | 0.0506*** (10.1290) | 0.0322*** (0.0001) |
| Δ(BID_ASK)t | 0.1783*** (20.8677) | 0.1687*** (22.1971) | 0.0096 (0.3980) | 0.1778*** (23.1255) | 0.1511*** (22.8205) | 0.0267*** (0.0093) | 0.1833*** (23.0170) | 0.1683*** (24.8301) | 0.0150 (0.1520) |
| Lagged level terms | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | |||
| Industry FE | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | |||
| Size Decile FE | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | |||
| BM Decile FE | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | |||
| Year FE | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | |||
| Maximum VIF | 1.62 | 1.88 | 1.62 | 1.88 | 1.62 | 1.88 | |||
| Adjusted R2 | 0.267 | 0.175 | 0.339 | 0.248 | 0.334 | 0.249 | |||
| F-value | 96.05*** | 116.80*** | 98.50*** | 119.50*** | 88.15*** | 106.30*** | |||
| Note(s): Financially distressed firms are distinguished from nondistressed firms by an Altman z-score less than 1.81 (Altman, 1968). For each independent variable, we report the standardized coefficient and the related t-statistic based on the standard error clustered by firm (Petersen, 2009). The p-value (one-tailed) is reported for the difference between standardized coefficients based on a chi-squared test. ***, **, *significant at 0.01, 0.05 and 0.10 respectively. Δ signifies the difference in the level of the variable between period t and t−1. Lagged level terms (t−1) of independent variables (excluding dummy variables) are added to control for feedback effects and are not reported for brevity. For brevity, the intercept, and the coefficients on industry dummies, firm size dummies, book to market dummies and year dummies are not reported. The maximum variance inflation factor excludes dummy variables and lagged terms. Appendix 2 provides variable definitions | |||||||||
| Dependent/Independent variable | Δ | Δ | Δ | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Distressed | Non-distressed | Diff. ( | Distressed | Non-distressed | Diff. ( | Distressed | Non-distressed | Diff. ( | |
| Δ( | 0.2921*** (38.5449) | 0.2093*** (28.9193) | 0.0828*** (0.0000) | 0.2209*** (32.0554) | 0.1251*** (17.8885) | 0.0958*** (0.0000) | 0.2283*** (31.8976) | 0.1265*** (16.9214) | 0.1018*** (0.0000) |
| Δ( | 0.0844*** (11.9629) | 0.0226*** (4.2872) | 0.0618*** (0.0000) | 0.0931*** (14.3050) | 0.0856*** (17.0392) | 0.0075 (0.3630) | 0.0828*** (12.4545) | 0.0506*** (10.1290) | 0.0322*** (0.0001) |
| Δ( | 0.1783*** (20.8677) | 0.1687*** (22.1971) | 0.0096 (0.3980) | 0.1778*** (23.1255) | 0.1511*** (22.8205) | 0.0267*** (0.0093) | 0.1833*** (23.0170) | 0.1683*** (24.8301) | 0.0150 (0.1520) |
| Lagged level terms | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | |||
| Industry FE | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | |||
| Size Decile FE | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | |||
| BM Decile FE | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | |||
| Year FE | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | |||
| Maximum VIF | 1.62 | 1.88 | 1.62 | 1.88 | 1.62 | 1.88 | |||
| Adjusted | 0.267 | 0.175 | 0.339 | 0.248 | 0.334 | 0.249 | |||
| 96.05*** | 116.80*** | 98.50*** | 119.50*** | 88.15*** | 106.30*** | ||||
| Panel B: Association of leverage on idiosyncratic risk – First-difference OLS regression (1986-2016) with lagged levels and fixed effects for size deciles, book to market deciles, industry and year (N = 102,928) – Comparison of financially distressed firms (N = 28,079) to non-distressed firms (N = 74,849) – Total liabilities and total preferred stock | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equation (4b) | |||||||||
| Dependent/Independent variable | ΔIRISKt | ΔIRISKt3 | ΔIRISKt5 | ||||||
| Distressed | Non-distressed | Diff. (p-value) | Distressed | Non-distressed | Diff. (p-value) | Distressed | Non-distressed | Diff. (p-value) | |
| Δ(TL/CE)t | 0.2863*** (37.1271) | 0.2084*** (28.8023) | 0.0779*** (0.0000) | 0.2158*** (30.7980) | 0.1235*** (17.5851) | 0.0923*** (0.0000) | 0.2231*** (30.5148) | 0.1266*** (16.9115) | 0.0965*** (0.0000) |
| Δ(PS/CE)t | 0.0257*** (3.7218) | 0.0047 (0.8746) | 0.0210** (0.0168) | 0.0223*** (3.6607) | 0.0092* (1.7441) | 0.0131* (0.0999) | 0.0230*** (3.7236) | −0.0012 (−0.2199) | 0.0242*** (0.0029) |
| Δ(STD_ROA)t | 0.0842*** (11.9487) | 0.0226*** (4.2910) | 0.0616*** (0.0000) | 0.0930*** (14.3027) | 0.0856*** (17.0085) | 0.0074 (0.3680) | 0.0827*** (12.4551) | 0.0506*** (10.1160) | 0.0321*** (0.0001) |
| Δ(BID_ASK)t | 0.1777*** (20.8179) | 0.1686*** (22.1893) | 0.0091 (0.4170) | 0.1774*** (23.0965) | 0.1509*** (22.7950) | 0.0265*** (0.0098) | 0.1828*** (22.9921) | 0.1683*** (24.8329) | 0.0145 (0.1640) |
| Lagged level terms | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | |||
| Industry FE | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | |||
| Size Decile FE | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | |||
| BM Decile FE | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | |||
| Year FE | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | |||
| Maximum VIF | 1.62 | 1.88 | 1.62 | 1.88 | 1.62 | 1.88 | |||
| Adjusted R2 | 0.267 | 0.175 | 0.340 | 0.249 | 0.334 | 0.249 | |||
| F-value | 94.33*** | 114.7*** | 96.90*** | 117.4*** | 86.65*** | 104.2*** | |||
| Note(s): Financially distressed firms are distinguished from non-distressed firms by an Altman z-score less than 1.81 (Altman, 1968). For each independent variable, we report the standardized coefficient and the related t-statistic based on the standard error clustered by firm (Petersen, 2009). The p-value (one-tailed) is reported for the difference between standardized coefficients based on a chi-squared test. ***, **, *significant at 0.01, 0.05 and 0.10, respectively. Δ signifies the difference in the level of the variable between period t and t−1. Lagged level terms (t−1) of independent variables (excluding dummy variables) are added to control for feedback effects and are not reported for brevity. For brevity, the intercept, and the coefficients on industry dummies, firm size dummies, book to market dummies and year dummies are not reported. The maximum variance inflation factor excludes dummy variables and lagged terms. Appendix 2 provides variable definitions | |||||||||
| Dependent/Independent variable | Δ | Δ | Δ | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Distressed | Non-distressed | Diff. ( | Distressed | Non-distressed | Diff. ( | Distressed | Non-distressed | Diff. ( | |
| Δ( | 0.2863*** (37.1271) | 0.2084*** (28.8023) | 0.0779*** (0.0000) | 0.2158*** (30.7980) | 0.1235*** (17.5851) | 0.0923*** (0.0000) | 0.2231*** (30.5148) | 0.1266*** (16.9115) | 0.0965*** (0.0000) |
| Δ( | 0.0257*** (3.7218) | 0.0047 (0.8746) | 0.0210** (0.0168) | 0.0223*** (3.6607) | 0.0092* (1.7441) | 0.0131* (0.0999) | 0.0230*** (3.7236) | −0.0012 (−0.2199) | 0.0242*** (0.0029) |
| Δ( | 0.0842*** (11.9487) | 0.0226*** (4.2910) | 0.0616*** (0.0000) | 0.0930*** (14.3027) | 0.0856*** (17.0085) | 0.0074 (0.3680) | 0.0827*** (12.4551) | 0.0506*** (10.1160) | 0.0321*** (0.0001) |
| Δ( | 0.1777*** (20.8179) | 0.1686*** (22.1893) | 0.0091 (0.4170) | 0.1774*** (23.0965) | 0.1509*** (22.7950) | 0.0265*** (0.0098) | 0.1828*** (22.9921) | 0.1683*** (24.8329) | 0.0145 (0.1640) |
| Lagged level terms | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | |||
| Industry FE | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | |||
| Size Decile FE | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | |||
| BM Decile FE | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | |||
| Year FE | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | |||
| Maximum VIF | 1.62 | 1.88 | 1.62 | 1.88 | 1.62 | 1.88 | |||
| Adjusted | 0.267 | 0.175 | 0.340 | 0.249 | 0.334 | 0.249 | |||
| 94.33*** | 114.7*** | 96.90*** | 117.4*** | 86.65*** | 104.2*** | ||||
| Panel C: Association of leverage components and idiosyncratic risk – First-difference OLS regression (1986-2016) with lagged levels and fixed effects for size deciles, book to market deciles, industry and year (N = 102,928) – Comparison of financially distressed firms (N = 28,079) to non-distressed firms (N = 74,849) – Liability components and total preferred stock | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equation (4c) | |||||||||
| Dependent/Independent variable | ΔIRISKt | ΔIRISKt3 | ΔIRISKt5 | ||||||
| Distressed | Non-distressed | Diff. (p-value) | Distressed | Non-distressed | Diff. (p-value) | Distressed | Non-distressed | Diff. (p-value) | |
| Δ(COL/CE)t | 0.1828*** (19.6064) | 0.1381*** (16.3540) | 0.0447*** (0.0002) | 0.1454*** (18.1849) | 0.0722*** (9.1471) | 0.0732*** (0.0000) | 0.1540*** (19.1132) | 0.0754*** (9.4627) | 0.0786*** (0.0000) |
| Δ(NCOL/CE)t | 0.0604*** (8.7369) | 0.0459*** (6.9318) | 0.0145 (0.1180) | 0.0543*** (8.9659) | 0.0378*** (6.2459) | 0.0165** (0.0487) | 0.0511*** (7.8487) | 0.0461*** (7.3999) | 0.0050 (0.5680) |
| Δ(STD/CE)t | 0.0940*** (11.9678) | 0.0533*** (7.8878) | 0.0407*** (0.0001) | 0.0658*** (9.1928) | 0.0309*** (4.4397) | 0.0349*** (0.0005) | 0.0647*** (8.8323) | 0.0301*** (4.0493) | 0.0346*** (0.0009) |
| Δ(NCFL/CE)t | 0.0705*** (8.9739) | 0.0456*** (6.1766) | 0.0249** (0.0156) | 0.0365*** (5.0383) | 0.0331*** (4.6372) | 0.0034 (0.7360) | 0.0437*** (5.9271) | 0.0298*** (3.9571) | 0.0139 (0.1760) |
| Δ(PS/CE)t | 0.0243*** (3.5354) | 0.0048 (0.8964) | 0.0195** (0.0259) | 0.0216*** (3.5528) | 0.0099* (1.8656) | 0.0117 (0.1390) | 0.0218*** (3.5209) | −0.0004 (−0.0686) | 0.0222*** (0.0064) |
| Δ(STD_ROA)t | 0.0797*** (11.3740) | 0.0220*** (4.1767) | 0.0577*** (0.0000) | 0.0892*** (13.7660) | 0.0852*** (16.9844) | 0.0040 (0.6270) | 0.0788*** (11.9209) | 0.0502*** (10.0752) | 0.0286*** (0.0004) |
| Δ(BID_ASK)t | 0.1728*** (20.1100) | 0.1676*** (22.0075) | 0.0052 (0.6480) | 0.1735*** (22.6119) | 0.1510*** (22.6910) | 0.0225** (0.0291) | 0.1790*** (22.5737) | 0.1689*** (24.7898) | 0.0101 (0.3300) |
| Lagged variable terms | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | |||
| Industry FE | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | |||
| Size Decile FE | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | |||
| BM Decile FE | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | |||
| Year FE | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | |||
| Maximum VIF | 1.74 | 2.27 | 1.74 | 2.27 | 1.74 | 2.27 | |||
| Adjusted R2 | 0.271 | 0.176 | 0.343 | 0.249 | 0.338 | 0.250 | |||
| F-value | 89.95*** | 109.0*** | 91.98*** | 111.5*** | 83.25*** | 98.98*** | |||
| Note(s): Financially distressed firms are distinguished from nondistressed firms by an Altman z-score less than 1.81 (Altman, 1968). For each independent variable, we report the standardized coefficient and the related t-statistic based on the standard error clustered by firm (Petersen, 2009). The p-value (one-tailed) is reported for the difference between standardized coefficients based on a chi-squared test. ***, **, *significant at 0.01, 0.05 and 0.10, respectively. Δ signifies the difference in the level of the variable between period t and t−1. Lagged level terms (t−1) of independent variables (excluding dummy variables) are added to control for feedback effects and are not reported for brevity. For brevity, the intercept, and the coefficients on industry dummies, firm size dummies, book to market dummies and year dummies are not reported. The maximum variance inflation factor excludes dummy variables and lagged terms. Appendix 2 provides variable definitions | |||||||||
| Dependent/Independent variable | Δ | Δ | Δ | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Distressed | Non-distressed | Diff. ( | Distressed | Non-distressed | Diff. ( | Distressed | Non-distressed | Diff. ( | |
| Δ( | 0.1828*** (19.6064) | 0.1381*** (16.3540) | 0.0447*** (0.0002) | 0.1454*** (18.1849) | 0.0722*** (9.1471) | 0.0732*** (0.0000) | 0.1540*** (19.1132) | 0.0754*** (9.4627) | 0.0786*** (0.0000) |
| Δ( | 0.0604*** (8.7369) | 0.0459*** (6.9318) | 0.0145 (0.1180) | 0.0543*** (8.9659) | 0.0378*** (6.2459) | 0.0165** (0.0487) | 0.0511*** (7.8487) | 0.0461*** (7.3999) | 0.0050 (0.5680) |
| Δ( | 0.0940*** (11.9678) | 0.0533*** (7.8878) | 0.0407*** (0.0001) | 0.0658*** (9.1928) | 0.0309*** (4.4397) | 0.0349*** (0.0005) | 0.0647*** (8.8323) | 0.0301*** (4.0493) | 0.0346*** (0.0009) |
| Δ( | 0.0705*** (8.9739) | 0.0456*** (6.1766) | 0.0249** (0.0156) | 0.0365*** (5.0383) | 0.0331*** (4.6372) | 0.0034 (0.7360) | 0.0437*** (5.9271) | 0.0298*** (3.9571) | 0.0139 (0.1760) |
| Δ( | 0.0243*** (3.5354) | 0.0048 (0.8964) | 0.0195** (0.0259) | 0.0216*** (3.5528) | 0.0099* (1.8656) | 0.0117 (0.1390) | 0.0218*** (3.5209) | −0.0004 (−0.0686) | 0.0222*** (0.0064) |
| Δ( | 0.0797*** (11.3740) | 0.0220*** (4.1767) | 0.0577*** (0.0000) | 0.0892*** (13.7660) | 0.0852*** (16.9844) | 0.0040 (0.6270) | 0.0788*** (11.9209) | 0.0502*** (10.0752) | 0.0286*** (0.0004) |
| Δ( | 0.1728*** (20.1100) | 0.1676*** (22.0075) | 0.0052 (0.6480) | 0.1735*** (22.6119) | 0.1510*** (22.6910) | 0.0225** (0.0291) | 0.1790*** (22.5737) | 0.1689*** (24.7898) | 0.0101 (0.3300) |
| Lagged variable terms | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | |||
| Industry FE | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | |||
| Size Decile FE | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | |||
| BM Decile FE | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | |||
| Year FE | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | |||
| Maximum VIF | 1.74 | 2.27 | 1.74 | 2.27 | 1.74 | 2.27 | |||
| Adjusted | 0.271 | 0.176 | 0.343 | 0.249 | 0.338 | 0.250 | |||
| 89.95*** | 109.0*** | 91.98*** | 111.5*** | 83.25*** | 98.98*** | ||||
| Panel D: Association of leverage components and idiosyncratic risk – First-difference OLS regression (1986-2016) with lagged levels and fixed effects for size deciles, book to market deciles, industry and year (N = 102,928) – Comparison of financially distressed firms (N = 28,079) to non-distressed Firms (N = 74,849) – Liability components and redeemable/nonredeemable preferred stock classes | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equation (4d) | |||||||||
| Dependent/Independent variable | ΔIRISKt | ΔIRISKt3 | ΔIRISKt5 | ||||||
| Distressed | Non-distressed | Diff. (p-value) | Distressed | Non-distressed | Diff. (p-value) | Distressed | Non-distressed | Diff. (p-value) | |
| Δ(COL/CE)t | 0.1837*** (19.7068) | 0.1382*** (16.3913) | 0.0455*** (0.0002) | 0.1459*** (18.2197) | 0.0722*** (9.1544) | 0.0737*** (0.0000) | 0.1545*** (19.1729) | 0.0753*** (9.4453) | 0.0787*** (0.0000) |
| Δ(NCOL/CE)t | 0.0605*** (8.7416) | 0.0459*** (6.9299) | 0.0146 (0.1160) | 0.0544*** (8.9616) | 0.0378*** (6.2405) | 0.0166** (0.0486) | 0.0511*** (7.8424) | 0.0461*** (7.3957) | 0.0050 (0.5720) |
| Δ(STD/CE)t | 0.0942*** (11.9899) | 0.0534*** (7.8979) | 0.0408*** (0.0001) | 0.0659*** (9.2043) | 0.0309*** (4.4348) | 0.0350*** (0.0005) | 0.0648*** (8.8450) | 0.0301*** (4.0457) | 0.0347*** (0.0008) |
| Δ(NCFL/CE)t | 0.0710*** (9.0479) | 0.0458*** (6.2016) | 0.0252** (0.0147) | 0.0366*** (5.0590) | 0.0332*** (4.6411) | 0.0034 (0.7310) | 0.0439*** (5.9632) | 0.0299*** (3.9645) | 0.0140 (0.1730) |
| Δ(PSR/CE)t | 0.0150** (2.3970) | −0.0018 (−0.3792) | 0.0168** (0.0313) | 0.0192*** (3.3835) | 0.0059 (1.2753) | 0.0133* (0.0766) | 0.0200*** (3.5372) | −0.0006 (−0.1314) | 0.0206*** (0.0057) |
| Δ(PSNR/CE)t | 0.0138** (2.0248) | 0.0046 (0.8356) | 0.0092 (0.2940) | 0.0093 (1.5364) | 0.0084 (1.5776) | 0.0009 (0.9100) | 0.0090 (1.4867) | −0.0002 (−0.0344) | 0.0092 (0.2510) |
| Δ(STD_ROA)t | 0.0796*** (11.3643) | 0.0221*** (4.1921) | 0.0575*** (0.0000) | 0.0892*** (13.7493) | 0.0853*** (16.9896) | 0.0039 (0.6360) | 0.0788*** (11.9160) | 0.0502*** (10.0759) | 0.0286*** (0.0005) |
| Δ(BID_ASK)t | 0.1730*** (20.1339) | 0.1676*** (22.0013) | 0.0054 (0.6320) | 0.1737*** (22.6417) | 0.1509*** (22.6771) | 0.0228** (0.0267) | 0.1792*** (22.6111) | 0.1688*** (24.7850) | 0.0100 (0.3160) |
| Lagged level terms | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | |||
| Industry FE | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | |||
| Size Decile FE | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | |||
| BM Decile FE | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | |||
| Year FE | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | |||
| Maximum VIF | 1.73 | 2.27 | 1.73 | 2.27 | 1.73 | 2.27 | |||
| Adjusted R2 | 0.271 | 0.176 | 0.343 | 0.249 | 0.337 | 0.250 | |||
| F-value | 88.62*** | 106.9*** | 90.70*** | 109.6*** | 81.93*** | 97.17*** | |||
| Note(s): Financially distressed firms are distinguished from nondistressed firms by an Altman z-score less than 1.81 (Altman, 1968). For each independent variable, we report the standardized coefficient and the related t-statistic based on the standard error clustered by firm (Petersen, 2009). The p-value (one-tailed) is reported for the difference between standardized coefficients based on a chi-squared test. ***, **, *significant at 0.01, 0.05 and 0.10, respectively. Δ signifies the difference in the level of the variable between period t and t−1. Lagged level terms (t−1) of independent variables (excluding dummy variables) are added to control for feedback effects and are not reported for brevity. For brevity, the intercept, and the coefficients on industry dummies, firm size dummies, book to market dummies and year dummies are not reported. The maximum variance inflation factor excludes dummy variables and lagged terms. Appendix 2 provides variable definitions | |||||||||
| Dependent/Independent variable | Δ | Δ | Δ | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Distressed | Non-distressed | Diff. ( | Distressed | Non-distressed | Diff. ( | Distressed | Non-distressed | Diff. ( | |
| Δ( | 0.1837*** (19.7068) | 0.1382*** (16.3913) | 0.0455*** (0.0002) | 0.1459*** (18.2197) | 0.0722*** (9.1544) | 0.0737*** (0.0000) | 0.1545*** (19.1729) | 0.0753*** (9.4453) | 0.0787*** (0.0000) |
| Δ( | 0.0605*** (8.7416) | 0.0459*** (6.9299) | 0.0146 (0.1160) | 0.0544*** (8.9616) | 0.0378*** (6.2405) | 0.0166** (0.0486) | 0.0511*** (7.8424) | 0.0461*** (7.3957) | 0.0050 (0.5720) |
| Δ( | 0.0942*** (11.9899) | 0.0534*** (7.8979) | 0.0408*** (0.0001) | 0.0659*** (9.2043) | 0.0309*** (4.4348) | 0.0350*** (0.0005) | 0.0648*** (8.8450) | 0.0301*** (4.0457) | 0.0347*** (0.0008) |
| Δ( | 0.0710*** (9.0479) | 0.0458*** (6.2016) | 0.0252** (0.0147) | 0.0366*** (5.0590) | 0.0332*** (4.6411) | 0.0034 (0.7310) | 0.0439*** (5.9632) | 0.0299*** (3.9645) | 0.0140 (0.1730) |
| Δ( | 0.0150** (2.3970) | −0.0018 (−0.3792) | 0.0168** (0.0313) | 0.0192*** (3.3835) | 0.0059 (1.2753) | 0.0133* (0.0766) | 0.0200*** (3.5372) | −0.0006 (−0.1314) | 0.0206*** (0.0057) |
| Δ( | 0.0138** (2.0248) | 0.0046 (0.8356) | 0.0092 (0.2940) | 0.0093 (1.5364) | 0.0084 (1.5776) | 0.0009 (0.9100) | 0.0090 (1.4867) | −0.0002 (−0.0344) | 0.0092 (0.2510) |
| Δ( | 0.0796*** (11.3643) | 0.0221*** (4.1921) | 0.0575*** (0.0000) | 0.0892*** (13.7493) | 0.0853*** (16.9896) | 0.0039 (0.6360) | 0.0788*** (11.9160) | 0.0502*** (10.0759) | 0.0286*** (0.0005) |
| Δ( | 0.1730*** (20.1339) | 0.1676*** (22.0013) | 0.0054 (0.6320) | 0.1737*** (22.6417) | 0.1509*** (22.6771) | 0.0228** (0.0267) | 0.1792*** (22.6111) | 0.1688*** (24.7850) | 0.0100 (0.3160) |
| Lagged level terms | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | |||
| Industry FE | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | |||
| Size Decile FE | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | |||
| BM Decile FE | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | |||
| Year FE | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | |||
| Maximum VIF | 1.73 | 2.27 | 1.73 | 2.27 | 1.73 | 2.27 | |||
| Adjusted | 0.271 | 0.176 | 0.343 | 0.249 | 0.337 | 0.250 | |||
| 88.62*** | 106.9*** | 90.70*** | 109.6*** | 81.93*** | 97.17*** | ||||
| Panel E: Association of leverage components and idiosyncratic risk – First-difference OLS regression (1986-2016) with lagged levels and fixed effects for size deciles, book to market deciles, industry and year (N = 102,928) – Comparison of financially distressed firms (N = 28,079) to non-distressed Firms (N = 74,849) – Liability components and convertible/nonconvertible preferred stock classes | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equation (4e) | |||||||||
| Dependent/Independent variable | ΔIRISKt | ΔIRISKt3 | ΔIRISKt5 | ||||||
| Distressed | Non-distressed | Diff. (p-value) | Distressed | Non-distressed | Diff. (p-value) | Distressed | Non-distressed | Diff. (p-value) | |
| Δ(COL/CE)t | 0.1833*** (19.6922) | 0.1382*** (16.4185) | 0.0451*** (0.0002) | 0.1461*** (18.2770) | 0.0720*** (9.1498) | 0.0741*** (0.0000) | 0.1544*** (19.2313) | 0.0752*** (9.4630) | 0.0792*** (0.0000) |
| Δ(NCOL/CE)t | 0.0604*** (8.7457) | 0.0460*** (6.9558) | 0.0144 (0.1200) | 0.0544*** (8.9930) | 0.0380*** (6.2824) | 0.0164* (0.0503) | 0.0511*** (7.8771) | 0.0462*** (7.4237) | 0.0049 (0.5780) |
| Δ(STD/CE)t | 0.0939*** (11.9523) | 0.0536*** (7.9362) | 0.0403*** (0.0001) | 0.0656*** (9.1690) | 0.0312*** (4.4922) | 0.0344*** (0.0006) | 0.0643*** (8.8017) | 0.0303*** (4.0800) | 0.0340*** (0.0010) |
| Δ(NCFL/CE)t | 0.0708*** (9.0185) | 0.0461*** (6.2525) | 0.0247** (0.0166) | 0.0369*** (5.0868) | 0.0336*** (4.7213) | 0.0033 (0.7460) | 0.0440*** (5.9776) | 0.0302*** (4.0105) | 0.0138 (0.1780) |
| Δ(PSC/CE)t | 0.0213*** (3.1229) | 0.0023 (0.4281) | 0.0190** (0.0272) | 0.0171*** (2.8198) | 0.0092* (1.7558) | 0.0079 (0.3100) | 0.0207*** (3.4815) | −0.0008 (−0.1525) | 0.0215*** (0.0065) |
| Δ(PSNC/CE)t | 0.0101* (1.7333) | −0.0029 (−0.6451) | 0.0130* (0.0780) | 0.0098* (1.9044) | 0.0015 (0.3560) | 0.0083 (0.2250) | 0.0081 (1.5313) | −0.0018 (−0.4661) | 0.0099 (0.1350) |
| Δ(STD_ROA)t | 0.0797*** (11.3700) | 0.0220*** (4.1818) | 0.0577*** (0.0000) | 0.0892*** (13.7671) | 0.0853*** (16.9944) | 0.0039 (0.6330) | 0.0788*** (11.9302) | 0.0502*** (10.0756) | 0.0286*** (0.0005) |
| Δ(BID_ASK)t | 0.1729*** (20.1376) | 0.1677*** (22.0161) | 0.0052 (0.6450) | 0.1736*** (22.6726) | 0.1511*** (22.7049) | 0.0225** (0.0280) | 0.1791*** (22.6675) | 0.1689*** (24.8135) | 0.0102 (0.3280) |
| Lagged level terms | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | |||
| Industry FE | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | |||
| Size Decile FE | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | |||
| BM Decile FE | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | |||
| Year FE | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | |||
| Maximum VIF | 1.73 | 2.27 | 1.73 | 2.27 | 1.73 | 2.27 | |||
| Adjusted R2 | 0.271 | 0.176 | 0.343 | 0.249 | 0.338 | 0.250 | |||
| F-value | 88.77*** | 107.0*** | 90.77*** | 109.5*** | 82.18*** | 97.24*** | |||
| Dependent/Independent variable | Δ | Δ | Δ | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Distressed | Non-distressed | Diff. ( | Distressed | Non-distressed | Diff. ( | Distressed | Non-distressed | Diff. ( | |
| Δ( | 0.1833*** (19.6922) | 0.1382*** (16.4185) | 0.0451*** (0.0002) | 0.1461*** (18.2770) | 0.0720*** (9.1498) | 0.0741*** (0.0000) | 0.1544*** (19.2313) | 0.0752*** (9.4630) | 0.0792*** (0.0000) |
| Δ( | 0.0604*** (8.7457) | 0.0460*** (6.9558) | 0.0144 (0.1200) | 0.0544*** (8.9930) | 0.0380*** (6.2824) | 0.0164* (0.0503) | 0.0511*** (7.8771) | 0.0462*** (7.4237) | 0.0049 (0.5780) |
| Δ( | 0.0939*** (11.9523) | 0.0536*** (7.9362) | 0.0403*** (0.0001) | 0.0656*** (9.1690) | 0.0312*** (4.4922) | 0.0344*** (0.0006) | 0.0643*** (8.8017) | 0.0303*** (4.0800) | 0.0340*** (0.0010) |
| Δ( | 0.0708*** (9.0185) | 0.0461*** (6.2525) | 0.0247** (0.0166) | 0.0369*** (5.0868) | 0.0336*** (4.7213) | 0.0033 (0.7460) | 0.0440*** (5.9776) | 0.0302*** (4.0105) | 0.0138 (0.1780) |
| Δ( | 0.0213*** (3.1229) | 0.0023 (0.4281) | 0.0190** (0.0272) | 0.0171*** (2.8198) | 0.0092* (1.7558) | 0.0079 (0.3100) | 0.0207*** (3.4815) | −0.0008 (−0.1525) | 0.0215*** (0.0065) |
| Δ( | 0.0101* (1.7333) | −0.0029 (−0.6451) | 0.0130* (0.0780) | 0.0098* (1.9044) | 0.0015 (0.3560) | 0.0083 (0.2250) | 0.0081 (1.5313) | −0.0018 (−0.4661) | 0.0099 (0.1350) |
| Δ( | 0.0797*** (11.3700) | 0.0220*** (4.1818) | 0.0577*** (0.0000) | 0.0892*** (13.7671) | 0.0853*** (16.9944) | 0.0039 (0.6330) | 0.0788*** (11.9302) | 0.0502*** (10.0756) | 0.0286*** (0.0005) |
| Δ( | 0.1729*** (20.1376) | 0.1677*** (22.0161) | 0.0052 (0.6450) | 0.1736*** (22.6726) | 0.1511*** (22.7049) | 0.0225** (0.0280) | 0.1791*** (22.6675) | 0.1689*** (24.8135) | 0.0102 (0.3280) |
| Lagged level terms | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | |||
| Industry FE | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | |||
| Size Decile FE | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | |||
| BM Decile FE | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | |||
| Year FE | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | Included | |||
| Maximum VIF | 1.73 | 2.27 | 1.73 | 2.27 | 1.73 | 2.27 | |||
| Adjusted | 0.271 | 0.176 | 0.343 | 0.249 | 0.338 | 0.250 | |||
| 88.77*** | 107.0*** | 90.77*** | 109.5*** | 82.18*** | 97.24*** | ||||
Note(s): Financially distressed firms are distinguished from non-distressed firms by an Altman z-score less than 1.81 (Altman, 1968). For each independent variable, we report the standardized coefficient and the related t-statistic based on the standard error clustered by firm (Petersen, 2009). The p-value (one-tailed) is reported for the difference between standardized coefficients based on a chi-squared test. ***, **, *significant at 0.01, 0.05 and 0.10, respectively. Δ signifies the difference in the level of the variable between period t and t−1. Lagged level terms (t−1) of independent variables (excluding dummy variables) are added to control for feedback effects and are not reported for brevity. For brevity, the intercept and the coefficients on industry dummies, firm size dummies, book to market dummies and year dummies are not reported. The maximum variance inflation factor excludes dummy variables and lagged terms. Appendix 2 provides variable definitions
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