Table 6

Comparison of long-run operating performance between firms achieving MBE by a small margin and matched control firms (H5)

Year t + 1Year t + 2Year t + 3
ROAt + 1EPSt + 1CFOt + 1ROAt + 2EPSt + 2CFOt + 2ROAt + 3EPSt + 3CFOt + 3
(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)
(1)Firms that achieve MBE by a small marginMean0.051***0.445***0.065***0.046***0.422***0.063***0.042***0.423***0.061***
(2)Matched non-MBE firmsMean0.042***0.402***0.055***0.038***0.377***0.051***0.037***0.386***0.053***
 Difference: (1) – (2)Dif0.009***0.042**0.011***0.008***0.045**0.012***0.006**0.037*0.008***
 Matched pairsN1,5131,5131,5131,4301,4301,4301,3191,3191,319
(3)Firms that achieve MBE by a small marginMean0.048***0.455***0.065***0.044***0.437***0.063***0.042***0.438***0.061***
(4)Matched firms that beat analyst forecasts by a big marginMean0.055***0.610***0.060***0.046***0.555***0.056***−0.0050.483***0.053***
 Difference: (3) – (4)Dif−0.007**−0.155***0.005*−0.002−0.118***0.007**0.047−0.0450.008***
 Matched pairsn1,4901,4901,4901,4071,4071,4071,2961,2961,296

Note(s): This table compares the future operating performance of firms achieving MBE by a small margin (SMBEAT = 1) with that of matched non-MBE firms (MBE = 0) and firms that beat analyst forecasts by a big margin (BIGBEAT = 1). The match is based on Analyst, GVT, ROA, ETP, Size, MTB, Leverage, CFO, Prior stock return and industry in year t using one-to-one nearest neighbor propensity score matching without replacement. To enhance the effectiveness of matching, we use a small caliper of 0.01 to identify sets of matches. MBE firms (non-MBE firms) are those firms whose reported EPS equals or exceeds (below) the latest analysts' forecasted EPS made within 150−2 days before the earnings announcements. Firms achieving MBE by a small margin (firms beating analyst forecasts by a big margin) are those firms whose actual EPS equals or exceeds the latest analyst forecast by ≤ 1 cent per share (>1 cent per share), and 0 otherwise. ROA is net profit scaled by closing total assets. EPS is the actual earnings per share. CFO is cash flows from operating activities divided by year-end total assets. The test of mean differences is a two-tailed t-test. *, ** and *** indicate statistical significance at the 10, 5 and 1% levels, respectively

or Create an Account

Close subscription notice
Close access options