Comparison of long-run operating performance between firms achieving MBE by a small margin and matched control firms (H5)
| Year t + 1 | Year t + 2 | Year t + 3 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROA t + 1 | EPS t + 1 | CFO t + 1 | ROA t + 2 | EPS t + 2 | CFO t + 2 | ROA t + 3 | EPS t + 3 | CFO t + 3 | |||
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) | |||
| (1) | Firms that achieve MBE by a small margin | Mean | 0.051*** | 0.445*** | 0.065*** | 0.046*** | 0.422*** | 0.063*** | 0.042*** | 0.423*** | 0.061*** |
| (2) | Matched non-MBE firms | Mean | 0.042*** | 0.402*** | 0.055*** | 0.038*** | 0.377*** | 0.051*** | 0.037*** | 0.386*** | 0.053*** |
| Difference: (1) – (2) | Dif | 0.009*** | 0.042** | 0.011*** | 0.008*** | 0.045** | 0.012*** | 0.006** | 0.037* | 0.008*** | |
| Matched pairs | N | 1,513 | 1,513 | 1,513 | 1,430 | 1,430 | 1,430 | 1,319 | 1,319 | 1,319 | |
| (3) | Firms that achieve MBE by a small margin | Mean | 0.048*** | 0.455*** | 0.065*** | 0.044*** | 0.437*** | 0.063*** | 0.042*** | 0.438*** | 0.061*** |
| (4) | Matched firms that beat analyst forecasts by a big margin | Mean | 0.055*** | 0.610*** | 0.060*** | 0.046*** | 0.555*** | 0.056*** | −0.005 | 0.483*** | 0.053*** |
| Difference: (3) – (4) | Dif | −0.007** | −0.155*** | 0.005* | −0.002 | −0.118*** | 0.007** | 0.047 | −0.045 | 0.008*** | |
| Matched pairs | n | 1,490 | 1,490 | 1,490 | 1,407 | 1,407 | 1,407 | 1,296 | 1,296 | 1,296 | |
| Year | Year | Year | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) | |||
| (1) | Firms that achieve MBE by a small margin | Mean | 0.051*** | 0.445*** | 0.065*** | 0.046*** | 0.422*** | 0.063*** | 0.042*** | 0.423*** | 0.061*** |
| (2) | Matched non-MBE firms | Mean | 0.042*** | 0.402*** | 0.055*** | 0.038*** | 0.377*** | 0.051*** | 0.037*** | 0.386*** | 0.053*** |
| Difference: (1) – (2) | 0.009*** | 0.042** | 0.011*** | 0.008*** | 0.045** | 0.012*** | 0.006** | 0.037* | 0.008*** | ||
| Matched pairs | 1,513 | 1,513 | 1,513 | 1,430 | 1,430 | 1,430 | 1,319 | 1,319 | 1,319 | ||
| (3) | Firms that achieve MBE by a small margin | Mean | 0.048*** | 0.455*** | 0.065*** | 0.044*** | 0.437*** | 0.063*** | 0.042*** | 0.438*** | 0.061*** |
| (4) | Matched firms that beat analyst forecasts by a big margin | Mean | 0.055*** | 0.610*** | 0.060*** | 0.046*** | 0.555*** | 0.056*** | −0.005 | 0.483*** | 0.053*** |
| Difference: (3) – (4) | −0.007** | −0.155*** | 0.005* | −0.002 | −0.118*** | 0.007** | 0.047 | −0.045 | 0.008*** | ||
| Matched pairs | 1,490 | 1,490 | 1,490 | 1,407 | 1,407 | 1,407 | 1,296 | 1,296 | 1,296 | ||
Note(s): This table compares the future operating performance of firms achieving MBE by a small margin (SMBEAT = 1) with that of matched non-MBE firms (MBE = 0) and firms that beat analyst forecasts by a big margin (BIGBEAT = 1). The match is based on Analyst, GVT, ROA, ETP, Size, MTB, Leverage, CFO, Prior stock return and industry in year t using one-to-one nearest neighbor propensity score matching without replacement. To enhance the effectiveness of matching, we use a small caliper of 0.01 to identify sets of matches. MBE firms (non-MBE firms) are those firms whose reported EPS equals or exceeds (below) the latest analysts' forecasted EPS made within 150−2 days before the earnings announcements. Firms achieving MBE by a small margin (firms beating analyst forecasts by a big margin) are those firms whose actual EPS equals or exceeds the latest analyst forecast by ≤ 1 cent per share (>1 cent per share), and 0 otherwise. ROA is net profit scaled by closing total assets. EPS is the actual earnings per share. CFO is cash flows from operating activities divided by year-end total assets. The test of mean differences is a two-tailed t-test. *, ** and *** indicate statistical significance at the 10, 5 and 1% levels, respectively
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