Results of short-run and long-run estimates of ARDL model
| Variables | ARDL coefficient (Prob.) |
|---|---|
| Long run coefficients | |
| Fiscal deficit (FD) | 1.8284 (0.003**) |
| Exchange rate (EXR) | 0.0295 (0.002**) |
| Trade openness (TO) | 0.2173 (0.095***) |
| Income (Y) | 0.0032 (0.003**) |
| Constant | −8.5098 (0.000*) |
| Short run coefficients | |
| Current account deficit (CAD(−1)) | 0.7896 (0.003*) |
| Fiscal deficit (FD) | 0.4436 (0.002*) |
| Fiscal deficit (FD(−1)) | 2.8303 (0.004*) |
| Fiscal deficit (FD(−2)) | −1.7593 (0.007*) |
| Fiscal deficit (FD(−3)) | −1.1622 (0.000*) |
| Exchange rate (EXR) | 0.0561 (0.012*) |
| Exchange rate (EXR(−1)) | 0.0281 (0.000*) |
| Exchange rate (EXR(−2)) | 0.0517 (0.014**) |
| Exchange rate (EXR(−3)) | −0.0024 (0.871) |
| Trade openness (TO) | 0.1665 (0.044**) |
| Trade openness (TO(−1)) | 0.0786 (0.217) |
| Trade openness (TO(−2)) | 0.1810 (0.005*) |
| Trade openness (TO(−3)) | 0.1769 (0.057***) |
| Income (Y) | 0.0014 (0.016**) |
| Income (Y(−1)) | 0.0011 (0.000*) |
| Income (Y(−2)) | 0.0010 (0.000*) |
| Income (Y(−3)) | 0.0007 (0.0792***) |
| ECT(−1) | −0.1921 (0.000*) |
| Diagnostic tests | |
| R-squared | 0.9525 |
| Adjusted R-squared | 0.8695 |
| Normality [Jarque-Bera (p-value)] | 0.2914 (0.864) |
| Serial correlation [LM Test F-statistic (p-value)] | 1.0550 (0.4147) |
| Heteroscedasticity [Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey (p-value)] | 0.9525 (0.573) |
| Ramsey RESET Test [F-statistic (p-value)] | 1.4713 (0.270) |
| Variables | ARDL coefficient (Prob.) |
|---|---|
| Fiscal deficit (FD) | 1.8284 (0.003**) |
| Exchange rate (EXR) | 0.0295 (0.002**) |
| Trade openness (TO) | 0.2173 (0.095***) |
| Income (Y) | 0.0032 (0.003**) |
| Constant | −8.5098 (0.000*) |
| 0.7896 (0.003*) | |
| 0.4436 (0.002*) | |
| 2.8303 (0.004*) | |
| −1.7593 (0.007*) | |
| −1.1622 (0.000*) | |
| 0.0561 (0.012*) | |
| 0.0281 (0.000*) | |
| 0.0517 (0.014**) | |
| −0.0024 (0.871) | |
| 0.1665 (0.044**) | |
| 0.0786 (0.217) | |
| 0.1810 (0.005*) | |
| 0.1769 (0.057***) | |
| 0.0014 (0.016**) | |
| 0.0011 (0.000*) | |
| 0.0010 (0.000*) | |
| 0.0007 (0.0792***) | |
| ECT(−1) | −0.1921 (0.000*) |
| 0.9525 | |
| Adjusted | 0.8695 |
| Normality [Jarque-Bera ( | 0.2914 (0.864) |
| Serial correlation [LM Test | 1.0550 (0.4147) |
| Heteroscedasticity [Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey ( | 0.9525 (0.573) |
| Ramsey RESET Test [ | 1.4713 (0.270) |
Note(s): *, **, *** indicates significant at 1%, 5% and 10% level of significance, respectively
Source(s): Author's Calculation Using Eviews
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