Table 3 Simulation of energy intensity... | Emerald Publishing

Table 3

Simulation of energy intensity in China by GM (1, N), DVCGM (1, N), the Improved DVCGM (1, N) and ARIMA model (Unit: tons of standard coal per 10,000 Yuan)

Years	Original data	GM (1, N) model		DVCGM (1, N) model		Improved DVCGM (1, N) model		ARIMA model
In-sample	Original data	Simulation values	PE%	Simulation values	PE%	Simulation values	PE%	Simulation values	PE%
2001	1.3731	1.3731	0	1.3731	0	1.3731	0	1.3731	0
2002	1.3932	1.4108	1.26	1.40783	1.05	1.4195	1.89	1.4381	3.22
2003	1.4341	1.5118	5.42	1.50494	4.94	1.4866	3.66	1.5134	5.53
2004	1.4229	1.4697	3.29	1.45264	2.09	1.4502	1.92	1.4536	2.16
2005	1.4542	1.4955	2.84	1.48736	2.28	1.4847	2.1	1.5111	3.91
2006	1.3054	1.3319	2.03	1.34535	3.06	1.3271	1.66	1.361	4.26
2007	1.1525	1.1965	3.82	1.19042	3.29	1.1681	1.35	1.235	7.16
2008	1.0034	1.0611	5.75	1.05487	5.13	1.044	4.05	1.0605	5.69
2009	0.9629	1.0025	4.11	0.99564	3.4	0.9729	1.04	1.0488	8.92
2010	0.8732	0.9179	5.12	0.91127	4.36	0.8875	1.64	0.9616	10.1
2011	0.791	0.82	3.66	0.81457	2.98	0.804	1.64	0.8661	9.49
2012	0.7442	0.8106	8.92	0.77739	4.46	0.7518	1.02	0.7913	6.33
2013	0.7004	0.7648	9.19	0.76	8.51	0.7112	1.54	0.7575	8.15
2014	0.6612	0.678	2.54	0.6852	3.63	0.6683	1.08	0.6966	5.36
APE%		4.14			3.51		1.76		5.74

Years	Original data	GM (1, N) model		DVCGM (1, N) model		ImprovedDVCGM (1, N) model		ARIMA model
In-sample	Original data	Simulation values	PE%	Simulation values	PE%	Simulation values	PE%	Simulation values	PE%
2001	1.3731	1.3731	0	1.3731	0	1.3731	0	1.3731	0
2002	1.3932	1.4108	1.26	1.40783	1.05	1.4195	1.89	1.4381	3.22
2003	1.4341	1.5118	5.42	1.50494	4.94	1.4866	3.66	1.5134	5.53
2004	1.4229	1.4697	3.29	1.45264	2.09	1.4502	1.92	1.4536	2.16
2005	1.4542	1.4955	2.84	1.48736	2.28	1.4847	2.1	1.5111	3.91
2006	1.3054	1.3319	2.03	1.34535	3.06	1.3271	1.66	1.361	4.26
2007	1.1525	1.1965	3.82	1.19042	3.29	1.1681	1.35	1.235	7.16
2008	1.0034	1.0611	5.75	1.05487	5.13	1.044	4.05	1.0605	5.69
2009	0.9629	1.0025	4.11	0.99564	3.4	0.9729	1.04	1.0488	8.92
2010	0.8732	0.9179	5.12	0.91127	4.36	0.8875	1.64	0.9616	10.1
2011	0.791	0.82	3.66	0.81457	2.98	0.804	1.64	0.8661	9.49
2012	0.7442	0.8106	8.92	0.77739	4.46	0.7518	1.02	0.7913	6.33
2013	0.7004	0.7648	9.19	0.76	8.51	0.7112	1.54	0.7575	8.15
2014	0.6612	0.678	2.54	0.6852	3.63	0.6683	1.08	0.6966	5.36
APE%		4.14			3.51		1.76		5.74

Out-sample	Original data	Prediction value	PE%	Prediction value	PE%	Prediction value	PE%	Prediction value	PE%
2015	0.6239	0.6577	5.41	0.64118	2.77	0.6334	1.52	0.6718	7.68
2016	0.5861	0.6076	3.67	0.61136	4.31	0.5943	1.4	0.6157	5.05
2017	0.5428	0.5676	4.57	0.56033	3.23	0.5582	2.83	0.5677	4.59
APE%			4.55		3.44		1.92		5.78

Out-sample	Original data	Prediction value	PE%	Prediction value	PE%	Prediction value	PE%	Prediction value	PE%
2015	0.6239	0.6577	5.41	0.64118	2.77	0.6334	1.52	0.6718	7.68
2016	0.5861	0.6076	3.67	0.61136	4.31	0.5943	1.4	0.6157	5.05
2017	0.5428	0.5676	4.57	0.56033	3.23	0.5582	2.83	0.5677	4.59
APE%			4.55		3.44		1.92		5.78