Table A4

Estimation of ARIMA model

VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-statisticProb
C−0.0311250.007696−4.0440420.0037
AR(1)1.5194000.13789611.018430.0000
AR(2)−0.9361680.059890−15.631390.0000
MA(1)−1.00000039728.31−2.52E-051.0000
SIGMASQ0.0004420.4039400.0010930.9992
R-squared0.850452Mean dependent var−0.018404
Adjusted R-squared0.775678S.D. dependent var0.056562
S.E. of regression0.026789Akaike info criterion−3.664240
Sum squared resid0.005741Schwarz criterion−3.446952
Log likelihood28.81756Hannan-Quinn criterion−3.708902
F-statistic11.37363Durbin–Watson stat1.064574
Prob(F-statistic)0.002202 

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