Determinants of insurer risk in Spain according to the different Z-score measures
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variables | Zs1 | Zs2 | Zs3 | Zs4 | Zs5 | Zs6 |
| Lagged dependent | 0.581*** (0.038) | 0.229*** (0.039) | 0.666*** (0.044) | 0.615*** (0.038) | 0.647*** (0.045) | 0.749*** (0.059) |
| Size | 0.159*** (0.056) | 0.186*** (0.071) | 0.127*** (0.044) | 0.156*** (0.056) | 0.126*** (0.048) | 0.097*** (0.019) |
| Profitability | 2.156* (1.294) | 2.294 (1.956) | 0.261 (1.329) | 2.050 (1.430) | −0.268 (1.344) | 2.865*** (0.377) |
| Capitalization | 1.973*** (0.486) | 3.058*** (0.827) | 1.638*** (0.522) | 1.971*** (0.530) | 1.714*** (0.529) | 1.158*** (0.294) |
| Reinsurance | 0.009 (0.221) | −0.247 (0.328) | −0.141 (0.259) | −0.086 (0.242) | −0.096 (0.247) | 0.138* (0.071) |
| Portfolio risk | −0.177 (0.304) | −0.499 (0.405) | −0.122 (0.292) | −0.148 (0.326) | −0.076 (0.271) | −0.078 (0.095) |
| Underwriting risk | −0.050 (0.104) | 0.041 (0.197) | 0.003 (0.126) | −0.022 (0.116) | −0.065 (0.122) | −0.023 (0.069) |
| Long-tailed business | −0.010 (0.023) | 0.016 (0.034) | 0.001 (0.019) | −0.003 (0.023) | 0.001 (0.020) | −0.009 (0.012) |
| Mutual | 0.249** (0.101) | 0.402** (0.176) | 0.163 (0.102) | 0.254** (0.102) | 0.165 (0.107) | 0.159*** (0.060) |
| Life insurance | 0.358** (0.166) | 0.515* (0.269) | 0.242 (0.172) | 0.334* (0.176) | 0.266 (0.190) | 0.245** (0.112) |
| Industry concentration | 0.001 (0.001) | −0.001 (0.002) | 0.001 (0.001) | 0.001 (0.001) | −0.001*** (0.000) | |
| Constant | −2.687 (1.183) | −1.256 (1.658) | −2.520** (1.014) | −2.925** (1.189) | −1.754 (1.073) | −1.220*** (0.441) |
| Year dummies | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| z1 | 36.24 (9, 182) | 5.50 (9, 182) | 30.93 (9, 182) | 35.01 (9, 182) | 31.14 (8, 182) | 31.87 (9, 182) |
| z2 | 2.29 (7, 182) | 2.67 (7, 182) | 1.75 (7, 182) | 2.15 (7, 182) | 1.48 (8, 182) | 3.84 (7, 182) |
| m1 | −6.84 | −6.71 | −6.94 | −6.87 | −6.86 | −2.06 |
| m2 | −1.18 | 0.17 | −0.75 | −1.12 | −0.75 | 0.85 |
| Hansen | 169.26 (204) | 165.26 (204) | 161.05 (204) | 167.22 (204) | 163.37 (204) | 174.25 (204) |
| Number of observations | 1,382 | 1,382 | 1,382 | 1,382 | 1,382 | 1,382 |
| Number of firms | 183 | 183 | 183 | 183 | 183 | 183 |
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variables | ||||||
| Lagged dependent | 0.581*** (0.038) | 0.229*** (0.039) | 0.666*** (0.044) | 0.615*** (0.038) | 0.647*** (0.045) | 0.749*** (0.059) |
| Size | 0.159*** (0.056) | 0.186*** (0.071) | 0.127*** (0.044) | 0.156*** (0.056) | 0.126*** (0.048) | 0.097*** (0.019) |
| Profitability | 2.156* (1.294) | 2.294 (1.956) | 0.261 (1.329) | 2.050 (1.430) | −0.268 (1.344) | 2.865*** (0.377) |
| Capitalization | 1.973*** (0.486) | 3.058*** (0.827) | 1.638*** (0.522) | 1.971*** (0.530) | 1.714*** (0.529) | 1.158*** (0.294) |
| Reinsurance | 0.009 (0.221) | −0.247 (0.328) | −0.141 (0.259) | −0.086 (0.242) | −0.096 (0.247) | 0.138* (0.071) |
| Portfolio risk | −0.177 (0.304) | −0.499 (0.405) | −0.122 (0.292) | −0.148 (0.326) | −0.076 (0.271) | −0.078 (0.095) |
| Underwriting risk | −0.050 (0.104) | 0.041 (0.197) | 0.003 (0.126) | −0.022 (0.116) | −0.065 (0.122) | −0.023 (0.069) |
| Long-tailed business | −0.010 (0.023) | 0.016 (0.034) | 0.001 (0.019) | −0.003 (0.023) | 0.001 (0.020) | −0.009 (0.012) |
| Mutual | 0.249** (0.101) | 0.402** (0.176) | 0.163 (0.102) | 0.254** (0.102) | 0.165 (0.107) | 0.159*** (0.060) |
| Life insurance | 0.358** (0.166) | 0.515* (0.269) | 0.242 (0.172) | 0.334* (0.176) | 0.266 (0.190) | 0.245** (0.112) |
| Industry concentration | 0.001 (0.001) | −0.001 (0.002) | 0.001 (0.001) | 0.001 (0.001) | −0.001*** (0.000) | |
| Constant | −2.687 (1.183) | −1.256 (1.658) | −2.520** (1.014) | −2.925** (1.189) | −1.754 (1.073) | −1.220*** (0.441) |
| Year dummies | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| 36.24 (9, 182) | 5.50 (9, 182) | 30.93 (9, 182) | 35.01 (9, 182) | 31.14 (8, 182) | 31.87 (9, 182) | |
| 2.29 (7, 182) | 2.67 (7, 182) | 1.75 (7, 182) | 2.15 (7, 182) | 1.48 (8, 182) | 3.84 (7, 182) | |
| −6.84 | −6.71 | −6.94 | −6.87 | −6.86 | −2.06 | |
| −1.18 | 0.17 | −0.75 | −1.12 | −0.75 | 0.85 | |
| Hansen | 169.26 (204) | 165.26 (204) | 161.05 (204) | 167.22 (204) | 163.37 (204) | 174.25 (204) |
| Number of observations | 1,382 | 1,382 | 1,382 | 1,382 | 1,382 | 1,382 |
| Number of firms | 183 | 183 | 183 | 183 | 183 | 183 |
Note(s): This table presents the determinants of insurer risk in the Spanish insurance sector (2010–2017) according to different Z-score measures. Zs1 is defined in Equation [3], Zs2 is defined in Equation [4], Zs3 is defined in Equation [5], Zs4 is defined in Equation [6], Zs5 is defined in Equation [7], and Zs6 is defined in Equation [8]. The dependent variable is included in its logarithmic form. See Table 2 for a description of the independent variables. We use the system-GMM estimator developed by Arellano and Bover (1995) and Blundell and Bond (1998). Except for Mutual, Life insurance, Industry concentration and Year dummies, all variables are considered endogenous in our model. In model (5), Industry concentration is dropped due to collinearity. We report heteroskedasticity-consistent asymptotic standard errors in parentheses, and significance levels are indicated as follows: *** = significance at the 1 percent level, ** = significance at the 5 percent level, and * = significance at the 10 percent level. z1 and z2 are Wald tests of the joint significance of the reported coefficients for the continuous and dummy explanatory variables, respectively, asymptotically distributed along an F distribution under the null hypothesis of no significance, with degrees of freedom in parentheses. mi is a serial correlation test of order i using residuals in first differences, asymptotically distributed as N(0,1) under the null hypothesis of no serial correlation. Hansen is a test of the overidentifying restrictions, asymptotically distributed along a χ2 distribution under the null hypothesis of no correlation between the instruments and the error term, with degrees of freedom in parentheses
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