Out-of-sample forecast evaluation of climate risk model [Nested models]
| Historical average (HA) versus CPU | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global | Europe | US | Asia | Solar | Wind | |||||||
| RMSE | HA | CPU | HA | CPU | HA | CPU | HA | CPU | HA | CPU | HA | CPU |
| h = 1 | 4.372 | 4.387 | 4.634 | 4.681 | 3.758 | 3.727 | 6.353 | 6.417 | 8.103 | 7.778 | 5.444 | 5.335 |
| h = 2 | 4.386 | 4.394 | 4.624 | 4.662 | 3.743 | 3.725 | 6.325 | 6.396 | 8.070 | 7.746 | 5.477 | 5.355 |
| h = 3 | 5.070 | 5.057 | 4.915 | 5.056 | 4.316 | 4.372 | 6.671 | 6.801 | 8.472 | 8.190 | 5.424 | 5.304 |
| h = 4 | 5.042 | 5.030 | 4.934 | 5.054 | 4.305 | 4.352 | 6.647 | 6.797 | 8.436 | 8.162 | 5.379 | 5.257 |
| CW | HA | CPU | HA | CPU | HA | CPU | HA | CPU | HA | CPU | HA | CPU |
| h = 1 | 0.205 | 0.480 | 1.372** | 0.632 | 9.248*** | 1.751 | ||||||
| (0.325) | (0.665) | (0.594) | (0.978) | (3.288) | (1.164) | |||||||
| h = 2 | 0.272 | 0.577 | 1.310** | 0.591 | 9.205*** | 1.886 | ||||||
| (0.328) | (0.666) | (0.592) | (0.970) | (3.259) | (1.149) | |||||||
| h = 3 | 0.468 | −0.859 | 0.695 | −0.233 | 8.745*** | 1.848 | ||||||
| (0.380) | (0.936) | (0.850) | (1.267) | (3.268) | (1.127) | |||||||
| h = 4 | 0.463 | −0.189 | 0.827 | −0.409 | 8.605*** | 1.858 | ||||||
| (0.375) | (0.934) | (0.853) | (1.268) | (3.236) | (1.106) | |||||||
| Historical average (HA) versus CPU | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global | Europe | US | Asia | Solar | Wind | |||||||
| h = 1 | 4.372 | 4.387 | 4.634 | 4.681 | 3.758 | 3.727 | 6.353 | 6.417 | 8.103 | 7.778 | 5.444 | 5.335 |
| h = 2 | 4.386 | 4.394 | 4.624 | 4.662 | 3.743 | 3.725 | 6.325 | 6.396 | 8.070 | 7.746 | 5.477 | 5.355 |
| h = 3 | 5.070 | 5.057 | 4.915 | 5.056 | 4.316 | 4.372 | 6.671 | 6.801 | 8.472 | 8.190 | 5.424 | 5.304 |
| h = 4 | 5.042 | 5.030 | 4.934 | 5.054 | 4.305 | 4.352 | 6.647 | 6.797 | 8.436 | 8.162 | 5.379 | 5.257 |
| h = 1 | 0.205 | 0.480 | 1.372** | 0.632 | 9.248*** | 1.751 | ||||||
| (0.325) | (0.665) | (0.594) | (0.978) | (3.288) | (1.164) | |||||||
| h = 2 | 0.272 | 0.577 | 1.310** | 0.591 | 9.205*** | 1.886 | ||||||
| (0.328) | (0.666) | (0.592) | (0.970) | (3.259) | (1.149) | |||||||
| h = 3 | 0.468 | −0.859 | 0.695 | −0.233 | 8.745*** | 1.848 | ||||||
| (0.380) | (0.936) | (0.850) | (1.267) | (3.268) | (1.127) | |||||||
| h = 4 | 0.463 | −0.189 | 0.827 | −0.409 | 8.605*** | 1.858 | ||||||
| (0.375) | (0.934) | (0.853) | (1.268) | (3.236) | (1.106) | |||||||
| Historical average (HA) versus EER | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global | Europe | US | Asia | Solar | Wind | |||||||
| RMSE | HA | EER | HA | EER | HA | EER | HA | EER | HA | EER | HA | EER |
| h = 1 | 4.372 | 4.373 | 4.634 | 4.631 | 3.758 | 3.785 | 6.353 | 6.338 | 8.102 | 8.234 | 5.444 | 5.421 |
| h = 2 | 4.386 | 4.393 | 4.624 | 4.655 | 3.743 | 3.771 | 6.325 | 6.316 | 8.070 | 8.218 | 5.477 | 5.394 |
| h = 3 | 5.070 | 5.072 | 4.951 | 4.880 | 4.316 | 4.227 | 6.671 | 6.539 | 8.472 | 8.502 | 5.424 | 5.360 |
| h = 4 | 5.042 | 5.045 | 4.934 | 4.861 | 4.305 | 4.220 | 6.647 | 6.512 | 8.436 | 8.465 | 5.379 | 5.312 |
| CW | HA | EER | HA | EER | HA | EER | HA | EER | HA | EER | HA | EER |
| h = 1 | 1.116 | 1.336 | 0.645 | 2.028 | 0.090 | 2.039 | ||||||
| (0.901) | (0.919) | (0.621) | (1.873) | (2.374) | (3.279) | |||||||
| h = 2 | 1.051 | 1.118 | 0.707 | 2.675 | −0.083 | 2.835 | ||||||
| (0.893) | (0.936) | (0.618) | (1.857) | (2.359) | (3.311) | |||||||
| h = 3 | 1.080 | 2.177 | 1.722 | 3.845 | 1.953 | 2.766 | ||||||
| (0.884) | (1.408) | (1.185) | (2.559) | (3.101) | (3.248) | |||||||
| h = 4 | 1.069 | 2.184 | 1.682 | 3.870 | 1.959 | 2.757 | ||||||
| (0.874) | (1.395) | (1.175) | (2.536) | (3.073) | (3.186) | |||||||
| Historical average (HA) versus EER | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global | Europe | US | Asia | Solar | Wind | |||||||
| h = 1 | 4.372 | 4.373 | 4.634 | 4.631 | 3.758 | 3.785 | 6.353 | 6.338 | 8.102 | 8.234 | 5.444 | 5.421 |
| h = 2 | 4.386 | 4.393 | 4.624 | 4.655 | 3.743 | 3.771 | 6.325 | 6.316 | 8.070 | 8.218 | 5.477 | 5.394 |
| h = 3 | 5.070 | 5.072 | 4.951 | 4.880 | 4.316 | 4.227 | 6.671 | 6.539 | 8.472 | 8.502 | 5.424 | 5.360 |
| h = 4 | 5.042 | 5.045 | 4.934 | 4.861 | 4.305 | 4.220 | 6.647 | 6.512 | 8.436 | 8.465 | 5.379 | 5.312 |
| h = 1 | 1.116 | 1.336 | 0.645 | 2.028 | 0.090 | 2.039 | ||||||
| (0.901) | (0.919) | (0.621) | (1.873) | (2.374) | (3.279) | |||||||
| h = 2 | 1.051 | 1.118 | 0.707 | 2.675 | −0.083 | 2.835 | ||||||
| (0.893) | (0.936) | (0.618) | (1.857) | (2.359) | (3.311) | |||||||
| h = 3 | 1.080 | 2.177 | 1.722 | 3.845 | 1.953 | 2.766 | ||||||
| (0.884) | (1.408) | (1.185) | (2.559) | (3.101) | (3.248) | |||||||
| h = 4 | 1.069 | 2.184 | 1.682 | 3.870 | 1.959 | 2.757 | ||||||
| (0.874) | (1.395) | (1.175) | (2.536) | (3.073) | (3.186) | |||||||
Note(s): This table presents the results for the forecast evaluation of the climate risk-based models where either the CPU or EER serve as the predictor. The forecast evaluation analysis compares the climate risk-based models with the HA model given that we are dealing with the return series of the clean energy prices. The climate risk-based models and HA model are “nested” since the latter can be seen as a subset of the former, hence the choice of Clark and West as the forecast evaluation test. The rejection of the null hypothesis of CW test indicates the better performance of the preferred models. “*”, “**” and “***” indicates statistical significance at the 10%, 5% and 1% significance levels
Source(s): Table by authors
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