Non-contemporaneous causality: GDP and TFP, and the VARX model
| Andean | Third | Caribbean | Pacific | Others | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clpib | ||||||
| clgdpt−1 | −0.590*** (0.180) | −0.906*** (0.230) | −0.268 (0.184) | −0.879*** (0.233) | −0.740*** (0.174) | −0.872*** (0.193) |
| clgdpt−2 | −0.424** (0.190) | −0.452* (0.271) | −0.687*** (0.189) | −0.345 (0.279) | −0.691*** (0.183) | −0.583*** (0.191) |
| clgdpt−3 | −0.113 (0.261) | |||||
| clgdpt−4 | −0.255 (0.227) | |||||
| cltfpt−1 | 0.046 (0.030) | 0.119* (0.074) | 0.024 (0.047) | 0.061 (0.052) | −0.009 (0.023) | 0.014 (0.031) |
| cltfpt−2 | −0.058* (0.030) | −0.059 (0.085) | −0.044 (0.044) | −0.083** (0.039) | −0.023 (0.026) | −0.038 (0.030) |
| cltfpt−3 | −0.090** (0.040) | |||||
| cltfpt−4 | −0.091** (0.040) | |||||
| cunempt | −0.709*** (0.278) | −0.736 (0.581) | −0.269 (0.175) | −1.346* (0.698) | 0.019 (0.920) | −0.326*** (0.121) |
| cunempt−1 | −0.630** (0.264) | −1.088*** (0.410) | −0.400*** (0.139) | −1.130* (0.593) | 0.020 (0.873) | −0.266** (0.120) |
| crisis | −0.002 (0.002) | 0.001 (0.004) | 0.006 (0.005) | −0.004 (0.003) | 0.002 (0.006) | 0.003 (0.002) |
| clpopt | 0.537 (1.996) | 1.690 (1.676) | 5.388** (2.253) | 2.286 (2.003) | 1.402 (2.179) | −0.168 (1.241) |
| clpopt−1 | −0.03 (1.844) | −1.508 (1.548) | −6.249** (2.470) | −1.858 (1.943) | −0.175 (1.907) | −0.554 (1.197) |
| openect | 0.000 (0.001) | 0.000 (0.001) | −0.001 (0.002) | 0.001 (0.001) | −0.001 (0.002) | 0.000 (0.001) |
| Cltfp | ||||||
| clgdpt−1 | −0.590*** (0.180) | 0.918 (0.766) | 1.103 (0.842) | −1.870 (1.476) | −2.520* (1.429) | 0.171 (1.086) |
| clgdpt−2 | −0.424** (0.190) | 1.107 (0.904) | 0.375 (0.862) | −1.315 (1.772) | −0.886 (1.495) | 0.756 (1.075) |
| clgdpt−3 | 1.678 (1.654) | |||||
| clgdpt−4 | 1.409 (1.440) | |||||
| cltfpt−1 | 0.046 (0.030) | −0.306 (0.248) | −0.329 (0.216) | −0.531 (0.329) | −0.053 (0.192) | 0.100 (0.175) |
| cltfpt−2 | −0.058* (0.030) | −0.642** (0.285) | −0.580*** (0.199) | −0.123 (0.245) | −0.291 (0.209) | −0.536*** (0.166) |
| cltfpt−3 | −0.738*** (0.256) | |||||
| cltfpt−4 | −0.605** (0.256) | |||||
| cunempt | −0.709*** (0.278) | −3.373* (1.934) | −0.841 (0.800) | −3.39 (4.429) | 6.281 (7.531) | −0.411 (0.680) |
| cunempt−1 | −0.630** (0.264) | −0.305 (1.366) | −0.44 (0.635) | −3.09 (3.763) | 10.164 (7.153) | 0.303 (0.676) |
| Crisis | −0.002 (0.002) | −0.001 (0.013) | −0.019 (0.021) | 0.031 (0.020) | −0.084* (0.046) | −0.005 (0.012) |
| clpopt | 0.537 (1.996) | 0.86 (5.584) | 12.462 (10.300) | 5.401 (12.709) | 21.344 (17.844) | 6.446 (6.976) |
| clpopt−1 | −0.03 (1.844) | 1.695 (5.158) | −18.063* (11.291) | −0.734 (12.334) | −9.035 (15.613) | −6.248 (6.731) |
| openect | 0.000 (−0.001) | 0.001 (0.004) | 0.005 (0.008) | −0.008 (0.008) | 0.019 (0.017) | 0.002 (0.004) |
| Observations | 25 | 25 | 25 | 23 | 25 | 25 |
| Log-Likelihood | 183.3 | 178.1 | 152.5 | 157.4 | 128.3 | 190.1 |
| Andean | Third | Caribbean | Pacific | Others | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −0.590*** (0.180) | −0.906*** (0.230) | −0.268 (0.184) | −0.879*** (0.233) | −0.740*** (0.174) | −0.872*** (0.193) | |
| −0.424** (0.190) | −0.452* (0.271) | −0.687*** (0.189) | −0.345 (0.279) | −0.691*** (0.183) | −0.583*** (0.191) | |
| −0.113 (0.261) | ||||||
| −0.255 (0.227) | ||||||
| 0.046 (0.030) | 0.119* (0.074) | 0.024 (0.047) | 0.061 (0.052) | −0.009 (0.023) | 0.014 (0.031) | |
| −0.058* (0.030) | −0.059 (0.085) | −0.044 (0.044) | −0.083** (0.039) | −0.023 (0.026) | −0.038 (0.030) | |
| −0.090** (0.040) | ||||||
| −0.091** (0.040) | ||||||
| −0.709*** (0.278) | −0.736 (0.581) | −0.269 (0.175) | −1.346* (0.698) | 0.019 (0.920) | −0.326*** (0.121) | |
| −0.630** (0.264) | −1.088*** (0.410) | −0.400*** (0.139) | −1.130* (0.593) | 0.020 (0.873) | −0.266** (0.120) | |
| −0.002 (0.002) | 0.001 (0.004) | 0.006 (0.005) | −0.004 (0.003) | 0.002 (0.006) | 0.003 (0.002) | |
| 0.537 (1.996) | 1.690 (1.676) | 5.388** (2.253) | 2.286 (2.003) | 1.402 (2.179) | −0.168 (1.241) | |
| −0.03 (1.844) | −1.508 (1.548) | −6.249** (2.470) | −1.858 (1.943) | −0.175 (1.907) | −0.554 (1.197) | |
| 0.000 (0.001) | 0.000 (0.001) | −0.001 (0.002) | 0.001 (0.001) | −0.001 (0.002) | 0.000 (0.001) | |
| −0.590*** (0.180) | 0.918 (0.766) | 1.103 (0.842) | −1.870 (1.476) | −2.520* (1.429) | 0.171 (1.086) | |
| −0.424** (0.190) | 1.107 (0.904) | 0.375 (0.862) | −1.315 (1.772) | −0.886 (1.495) | 0.756 (1.075) | |
| 1.678 (1.654) | ||||||
| 1.409 (1.440) | ||||||
| 0.046 (0.030) | −0.306 (0.248) | −0.329 (0.216) | −0.531 (0.329) | −0.053 (0.192) | 0.100 (0.175) | |
| −0.058* (0.030) | −0.642** (0.285) | −0.580*** (0.199) | −0.123 (0.245) | −0.291 (0.209) | −0.536*** (0.166) | |
| −0.738*** (0.256) | ||||||
| −0.605** (0.256) | ||||||
| −0.709*** (0.278) | −3.373* (1.934) | −0.841 (0.800) | −3.39 (4.429) | 6.281 (7.531) | −0.411 (0.680) | |
| −0.630** (0.264) | −0.305 (1.366) | −0.44 (0.635) | −3.09 (3.763) | 10.164 (7.153) | 0.303 (0.676) | |
| −0.002 (0.002) | −0.001 (0.013) | −0.019 (0.021) | 0.031 (0.020) | −0.084* (0.046) | −0.005 (0.012) | |
| 0.537 (1.996) | 0.86 (5.584) | 12.462 (10.300) | 5.401 (12.709) | 21.344 (17.844) | 6.446 (6.976) | |
| −0.03 (1.844) | 1.695 (5.158) | −18.063* (11.291) | −0.734 (12.334) | −9.035 (15.613) | −6.248 (6.731) | |
| 0.000 (−0.001) | 0.001 (0.004) | 0.005 (0.008) | −0.008 (0.008) | 0.019 (0.017) | 0.002 (0.004) | |
| Observations | 25 | 25 | 25 | 23 | 25 | 25 |
| Log-Likelihood | 183.3 | 178.1 | 152.5 | 157.4 | 128.3 | 190.1 |
Note(s): ***, **, * denote level of significance at 1%, 5% and 10 %, respectively
Source(s): Authors’ calculation
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