Summary statistics and preliminary analyses
| Country | Mean | CV | SK | KT | Unit root test | Conditional heteroscedasticity | Serial correlation | Persistence | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADF | ARCH(1) | ARCH(5) | ARCH(10) | Q(1) | Q(5) | Q(10) | Q2(1) | Q2(5) | Q2(10) | ||||||
| Stock returns | |||||||||||||||
| Brazil | 0.08 | 53.78 | 0.33 | 11.72 | −59.46***I(0) | 160.27*** | 56.83*** | 30.40*** | 0.04 | 2.91 | 20.31 | 152.34*** | 413.70*** | 550.79*** | −0.09*** |
| China | −0.04 | −73.43 | −0.01 | 8.80 | −46.86***I(0) | 159.65*** | 51.06*** | 27.14*** | 0.04 | 12.68** | 13.93 | 151.03*** | 384.55*** | 494.75*** | 0.10*** |
| India | 0.06 | 41.36 | −0.11 | 9.54 | −55.19***I(0) | 878.47*** | 204.47*** | 105.64*** | 0.02 | 20.00** | 36.77*** | 765.65*** | 1416.50*** | 1691.20*** | 0.05*** |
| Indonesia | 0.03 | 104.94 | 0.26 | 5.75 | −50.66***I(0) | 22.64*** | 17.81*** | 26.37*** | 0.00 | 7.73 | 16.61* | 22.50*** | 167.70*** | 279.17*** | 0.03* |
| Russia | 0.00 | 1213.46 | −1.10 | 31.64 | −62.42***I(0) | 76.94*** | 39.26*** | 23.38*** | 0.00 | 3.51 | 9.97 | 75.70*** | 272.83*** | 391.29*** | 0.05*** |
| South Africa | 0.06 | 40.97 | 0.04 | 7.04 | −67.55***I(0) | 204.24*** | 54.18*** | 38.16*** | 0.03 | 11.03* | 27.54*** | 197.04*** | 343.48*** | 587.70*** | 0.09*** |
| South Korea | 0.00 | 493.06 | 0.66 | 12.08 | −52.72***I(0) | 289.84*** | 108.63*** | 56.11*** | 0.00 | 13.27** | 19.43** | 263.82*** | 806.27*** | 934.86*** | 0.02 |
| Turkey | 0.09 | 34.15 | 0.13 | 7.55 | −32.33***I(0) | 67.29*** | 24.41*** | 13.57*** | 0.01 | 13.97** | 17.89** | 64.99*** | 149.12*** | 181.92*** | 0.03* |
| Vietnam | 0.03 | 74.67 | −0.90 | 15.94 | −36.95***I(0) | 6.33** | 2.14* | 0.99 | 0.00 | 13.45** | 22.49** | 6.32*** | 13.16*** | 13.30 | 0.02 |
| Stock market uncertainty | |||||||||||||||
| Brazil | 17.17 | 1.11 | 3.49 | 17.65 | −7.16***I(0) | 5.78** | 8.49*** | 5.42*** | 16.30*** | 44.93*** | 84.30*** | 5.79** | 50.48*** | 69.33*** | 0.98*** |
| China | 8.07 | 1.16 | 2.65 | 11.78 | −9.41***I(0) | 1.53 | 0.56 | 0.29 | 19.21*** | 21.41*** | 32.61*** | 1.54 | 2.95 | 3.11 | 0.94*** |
| India | 6.07 | 1.03 | 4.58 | 33.74 | −10.55***I(0) | 205.97*** | 42.67*** | 21.43*** | 347.01*** | 374.85*** | 397.86*** | 199.24*** | 216.35*** | 219.90*** | 0.98*** |
| Indonesia | 7.78 | 0.58 | 3.82 | 26.83 | −11.59***I(0) | 2.34 | 26.06*** | 14.62*** | 8.92*** | 31.17*** | 40.36*** | 2.34 | 127.34*** | 166.25*** | 0.89*** |
| Russia | 5.53 | 1.62 | 4.84 | 29.95 | −4.97***I(0) | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 1.86 | 20.75*** | 23.77*** | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.23 | 0.99*** |
| South Africa | 6.17 | 0.69 | 3.79 | 25.81 | −8.42***I(0) | 11.08*** | 3.52*** | 2.28** | 52.51*** | 75.27*** | 87.83*** | 11.07*** | 19.02*** | 25.56*** | 0.98*** |
| South Korea | 5.77 | 0.93 | 4.27 | 30.75 | −5.64***I(0) | 3.94** | 5.79*** | 3.04*** | 96.66*** | 326.77*** | 341.59*** | 3.95** | 30.27*** | 32.72*** | 0.99*** |
| Turkey | 9.08 | 0.70 | 3.41 | 21.43 | −12.19***I(0) | 0.24 | 0.73 | 0.40 | 4.11** | 21.41*** | 28.79*** | 0.24 | 3.81 | 4.21 | 0.88*** |
| Vietnam | 6.63 | 1.48 | 17.44 | 426.25 | −22.09***I(0) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.54 | 0.84 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.49*** |
| Global oil uncertainty | |||||||||||||||
| WTI | 7.69 | 2.90 | 12.91 | 203.33 | −10.08***I(0) | 639.16*** | 136.24*** | 71.56*** | 511.22*** | 531.00*** | 624.00*** | 577.42*** | 680.19*** | 723.79*** | 0.98*** |
| Brent | 7.27 | 3.40 | 16.74 | 349.47 | −9.37***I(0) | 1.12 | 0.27 | 0.24 | 108.36*** | 158.32*** | 203.60*** | 1.13 | 1.42 | 2.46 | 0.96*** |
| Other global uncertainty measures | |||||||||||||||
| CIU | 21.57 | 0.67 | 2.06 | 7.90 | −15.54***I(1) | 10.42*** | 4.40*** | 1.67* | 14.65*** | 23.79*** | 26.64*** | 10.32*** | 23.61*** | 23.70*** | 0.95*** |
| GPR | 113.57 | 0.61 | 4.51 | 38.10 | −9.84***I(0) | 83.38*** | 50.55*** | 56.74*** | 507.83*** | 678.41*** | 838.96*** | 82.30*** | 347.10*** | 816.30*** | 0.82*** |
| Country | Mean | CV | SK | KT | Unit root test | Conditional heteroscedasticity | Serial correlation | Persistence | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADF | |||||||||||||||
| Brazil | 0.08 | 53.78 | 0.33 | 11.72 | −59.46***I(0) | 160.27*** | 56.83*** | 30.40*** | 0.04 | 2.91 | 20.31 | 152.34*** | 413.70*** | 550.79*** | −0.09*** |
| China | −0.04 | −73.43 | −0.01 | 8.80 | −46.86***I(0) | 159.65*** | 51.06*** | 27.14*** | 0.04 | 12.68** | 13.93 | 151.03*** | 384.55*** | 494.75*** | 0.10*** |
| India | 0.06 | 41.36 | −0.11 | 9.54 | −55.19***I(0) | 878.47*** | 204.47*** | 105.64*** | 0.02 | 20.00** | 36.77*** | 765.65*** | 1416.50*** | 1691.20*** | 0.05*** |
| Indonesia | 0.03 | 104.94 | 0.26 | 5.75 | −50.66***I(0) | 22.64*** | 17.81*** | 26.37*** | 0.00 | 7.73 | 16.61* | 22.50*** | 167.70*** | 279.17*** | 0.03* |
| Russia | 0.00 | 1213.46 | −1.10 | 31.64 | −62.42***I(0) | 76.94*** | 39.26*** | 23.38*** | 0.00 | 3.51 | 9.97 | 75.70*** | 272.83*** | 391.29*** | 0.05*** |
| South Africa | 0.06 | 40.97 | 0.04 | 7.04 | −67.55***I(0) | 204.24*** | 54.18*** | 38.16*** | 0.03 | 11.03* | 27.54*** | 197.04*** | 343.48*** | 587.70*** | 0.09*** |
| South Korea | 0.00 | 493.06 | 0.66 | 12.08 | −52.72***I(0) | 289.84*** | 108.63*** | 56.11*** | 0.00 | 13.27** | 19.43** | 263.82*** | 806.27*** | 934.86*** | 0.02 |
| Turkey | 0.09 | 34.15 | 0.13 | 7.55 | −32.33***I(0) | 67.29*** | 24.41*** | 13.57*** | 0.01 | 13.97** | 17.89** | 64.99*** | 149.12*** | 181.92*** | 0.03* |
| Vietnam | 0.03 | 74.67 | −0.90 | 15.94 | −36.95***I(0) | 6.33** | 2.14* | 0.99 | 0.00 | 13.45** | 22.49** | 6.32*** | 13.16*** | 13.30 | 0.02 |
| Brazil | 17.17 | 1.11 | 3.49 | 17.65 | −7.16***I(0) | 5.78** | 8.49*** | 5.42*** | 16.30*** | 44.93*** | 84.30*** | 5.79** | 50.48*** | 69.33*** | 0.98*** |
| China | 8.07 | 1.16 | 2.65 | 11.78 | −9.41***I(0) | 1.53 | 0.56 | 0.29 | 19.21*** | 21.41*** | 32.61*** | 1.54 | 2.95 | 3.11 | 0.94*** |
| India | 6.07 | 1.03 | 4.58 | 33.74 | −10.55***I(0) | 205.97*** | 42.67*** | 21.43*** | 347.01*** | 374.85*** | 397.86*** | 199.24*** | 216.35*** | 219.90*** | 0.98*** |
| Indonesia | 7.78 | 0.58 | 3.82 | 26.83 | −11.59***I(0) | 2.34 | 26.06*** | 14.62*** | 8.92*** | 31.17*** | 40.36*** | 2.34 | 127.34*** | 166.25*** | 0.89*** |
| Russia | 5.53 | 1.62 | 4.84 | 29.95 | −4.97***I(0) | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 1.86 | 20.75*** | 23.77*** | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.23 | 0.99*** |
| South Africa | 6.17 | 0.69 | 3.79 | 25.81 | −8.42***I(0) | 11.08*** | 3.52*** | 2.28** | 52.51*** | 75.27*** | 87.83*** | 11.07*** | 19.02*** | 25.56*** | 0.98*** |
| South Korea | 5.77 | 0.93 | 4.27 | 30.75 | −5.64***I(0) | 3.94** | 5.79*** | 3.04*** | 96.66*** | 326.77*** | 341.59*** | 3.95** | 30.27*** | 32.72*** | 0.99*** |
| Turkey | 9.08 | 0.70 | 3.41 | 21.43 | −12.19***I(0) | 0.24 | 0.73 | 0.40 | 4.11** | 21.41*** | 28.79*** | 0.24 | 3.81 | 4.21 | 0.88*** |
| Vietnam | 6.63 | 1.48 | 17.44 | 426.25 | −22.09***I(0) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.54 | 0.84 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.49*** |
| WTI | 7.69 | 2.90 | 12.91 | 203.33 | −10.08***I(0) | 639.16*** | 136.24*** | 71.56*** | 511.22*** | 531.00*** | 624.00*** | 577.42*** | 680.19*** | 723.79*** | 0.98*** |
| Brent | 7.27 | 3.40 | 16.74 | 349.47 | −9.37***I(0) | 1.12 | 0.27 | 0.24 | 108.36*** | 158.32*** | 203.60*** | 1.13 | 1.42 | 2.46 | 0.96*** |
| CIU | 21.57 | 0.67 | 2.06 | 7.90 | −15.54***I(1) | 10.42*** | 4.40*** | 1.67* | 14.65*** | 23.79*** | 26.64*** | 10.32*** | 23.61*** | 23.70*** | 0.95*** |
| GPR | 113.57 | 0.61 | 4.51 | 38.10 | −9.84***I(0) | 83.38*** | 50.55*** | 56.74*** | 507.83*** | 678.41*** | 838.96*** | 82.30*** | 347.10*** | 816.30*** | 0.82*** |
Note(s): CV – Coefficient of variation; SK – Skewness; KT – kurtosis; ADF – Augmented Dickey-Fuller; CIU – COVID induced uncertainty; GPR –Geo-political risk. The ***, ** and * denote statistical significance of the corresponding tests at 1%, 5% and 10%, respectively. The ADF statistic tests the null of unit root, where significance indicates that the series are stationary. Significant ARCH statistics indicates evidence of ARCH effect in the series; while the significant Q(.) and Q2(.) statistics show evidence of series correlation at the specified lag order
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