Table 4

Forecast evaluation using RRMSE

CountriesIn-sampleOut-of-sampleIn-sampleOut-of-sample
h=15h=30h=60h=15h=30h=60
WTIBrent
Model-2 relative to Model-1
Brazil100.0100.080.080.040.040.040.040.0
China20.020.020.020.060.060.060.020.0
India80.080.080.080.020.020.020.020.0
Indonesia60.060.060.060.060.060.060.060.0
Russia20.040.040.040.080.080.040.040.0
South Africa60.060.040.040.060.060.040.040.0
South Korea80.080.080.080.080.080.080.080.0
Turkey80.080.080.080.0100.0100.0100.080.0
Vietnam100.0100.0100.0100.040.040.040.040.0
Model-3 relative to Model-1
Brazil100.080.060.060.080.060.060.060.0
China80.080.080.080.060.080.080.060.0
India80.080.080.080.060.060.060.040.0
Indonesia60.060.060.060.080.080.080.080.0
Russia60.060.080.080.0100.0100.0100.080.0
South Africa80.080.080.060.060.060.040.020.0
South Korea100.080.080.080.0100.080.080.080.0
Turkey100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0
Vietnam80.080.080.080.0100.080.080.0100.0
Model-3 relative to Model-2
Brazil60.040.040.040.0100.080.080.080.0
China60.060.060.060.080.0100.0100.080.0
India80.080.060.060.040.040.040.040.0
Indonesia80.080.080.080.060.060.060.060.0
Russia100.080.080.040.0100.080.060.060.0
South Africa100.0100.0100.080.080.080.060.060.0
South Korea80.080.080.080.060.060.060.060.0
Turkey60.060.060.060.0100.0100.080.080.0
Vietnam60.060.060.060.080.060.060.080.0

Note(s): The figures are the percentage of occurrences of a RRMSE value that is greater than unity, when the ratio of the first (unrestricted) model to the second (restricted) model in the pair of contending models labelled on each pane is obtained. The higher the percentage number, the more the preference for the unrestricted model over the restricted model

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