Table 4. Out-of-sample forecasting... | Emerald Publishing

Table 4.

Out-of-sample forecasting accuracy for residents

	6-steps ahead				12-steps ahead
Model	MAE	MCS	RMSE	MCS	MAE	MCS	RMSE	MCS
Period 1
SSARIMA	36.6931	0.0	39.1526	0.0	46.9385	0.0	50.1991	0.0
MSARIMA	40.9271	0.0	43.1191	0.0	50.8621	0.0	53.3158	0.0
ANN	34.4374	0.0	38.1727	0.0	45.5748	0.0	49.0298	0.0
LSTM	25.1175	1.0	30.6745	1.0	29.0328	1.0	33.7029	1.0
RNN	34.9685	0.0	38.9538	0.0	45.6026	0.0	49.9126	0.0
SVM	38.5527	0.0	42.5519	0.0	49.4569	0.0	53.1682	0.0
Naïve 1	42.7589	0.0	45.3650	0.0	50.8461	0.0	54.0716	0.0
Period 2
SSARIMA	16.5303	0.31	18.2601	0.25	17.0349	0.0	18.8242	0.0
MSARIMA	19.5120	0.0	20.5429	0.0	19.4928	0.0	22.7098	0.0
ANN	27.0616	0.0	28.9998	0.0	29.6235	0.0	32.6826	0.0
LSTM	16.4383	1.0	19.6039	1.0	13.8928	1.0	15.3219	1.0
RNN	32.2864	0.0	34.5893	0.0	29.7150	0.0	32.7571	0.0
SVM	22.8643	0.0	24.9171	0.0	22.9737	0.0	24.9730	0.0
Naïve 1	32.2121	0.0	33.1662	0.0	30.9231	0.0	34.8500	0.0
Period 3
SSARIMA	26.7798	0.0	31.6663	0.0	21.8793	0.0	26.0592	0.0
MSARIMA	24.1895	0.0	28.2725	0.0	22.7425	0.0	26.3276	0.0
ANN	28.4134	0.0	33.8211	0.0	25.1311	0.0	28.1644	0.0
LSTM	22.7517	1.0	24.9344	1.0	13.4012	1.0	14.9947	1.0
RNN	23.6151	0.25	25.3158	0.31	18.4009	0.0	20.9979	0.0
SVM	30.1544	0.0	35.1258	0.0	27.1183	0.0	29.9809	0.0
Naïve 1	31.7545	0.0	36.1185	0.0	30.3846	0.0	32.5221	0.0

	6-steps ahead				12-steps ahead
Model	MAE	MCS	RMSE	MCS	MAE	MCS	RMSE	MCS
Period 1
SSARIMA	36.6931	0.0	39.1526	0.0	46.9385	0.0	50.1991	0.0
MSARIMA	40.9271	0.0	43.1191	0.0	50.8621	0.0	53.3158	0.0
ANN	34.4374	0.0	38.1727	0.0	45.5748	0.0	49.0298	0.0
LSTM	25.1175	1.0	30.6745	1.0	29.0328	1.0	33.7029	1.0
RNN	34.9685	0.0	38.9538	0.0	45.6026	0.0	49.9126	0.0
SVM	38.5527	0.0	42.5519	0.0	49.4569	0.0	53.1682	0.0
Naïve 1	42.7589	0.0	45.3650	0.0	50.8461	0.0	54.0716	0.0
Period 2
SSARIMA	16.5303	0.31	18.2601	0.25	17.0349	0.0	18.8242	0.0
MSARIMA	19.5120	0.0	20.5429	0.0	19.4928	0.0	22.7098	0.0
ANN	27.0616	0.0	28.9998	0.0	29.6235	0.0	32.6826	0.0
LSTM	16.4383	1.0	19.6039	1.0	13.8928	1.0	15.3219	1.0
RNN	32.2864	0.0	34.5893	0.0	29.7150	0.0	32.7571	0.0
SVM	22.8643	0.0	24.9171	0.0	22.9737	0.0	24.9730	0.0
Naïve 1	32.2121	0.0	33.1662	0.0	30.9231	0.0	34.8500	0.0
Period 3
SSARIMA	26.7798	0.0	31.6663	0.0	21.8793	0.0	26.0592	0.0
MSARIMA	24.1895	0.0	28.2725	0.0	22.7425	0.0	26.3276	0.0
ANN	28.4134	0.0	33.8211	0.0	25.1311	0.0	28.1644	0.0
LSTM	22.7517	1.0	24.9344	1.0	13.4012	1.0	14.9947	1.0
RNN	23.6151	0.25	25.3158	0.31	18.4009	0.0	20.9979	0.0
SVM	30.1544	0.0	35.1258	0.0	27.1183	0.0	29.9809	0.0
Naïve 1	31.7545	0.0	36.1185	0.0	30.3846	0.0	32.5221	0.0

Note:

The italic numbers indicate the lowest error rate (MAE and RMSE)