Table 5. Out-of-sample forecasting... | Emerald Publishing

Table 5.

Out-of-sample forecasting accuracy for visitors

	6-step ahead				12-step ahead
Model	MAE	MCS	RMSE	MCS	MAE	MCS	RMSE	MCS
Period 1
SSARIMA	41.4288	0.0	44.2381	0.0	42.5185	0.0	51.8779	0.0
MSARIMA	47.3881	0.0	49.9024	0.0	46.6675	0.0	57.1757	0.0
ANN	46.1676	0.0	49.2756	0.0	54.8511	0.0	60.9110	0.0
LSTM	28.9648	1.0	30.4676	1.0	32.1464	1.0	45.2101	1.0
RNN	45.1481	0.0	46.4471	0.0	46.1706	0.0	56.7902	0.0
SVM	48.8050	0.0	55.8872	0.0	58.6210	0.0	64.5037	0.0
Naïve 1	50.3311	0.0	53.8176	0.0	58.6815	0.0	64.8541	0.0
Period 2
SSARIMA	35.8164	0.0	39.5107	0.0	31.0932	0.0	35.9545	0.0
MSARIMA	21.1724	0.0	26.0561	0.0	27.9434	0.0	30.3806	0.0
ANN	42.0653	0.0	43.9968	0.0	44.2593	0.0	46.8779	0.0
LSTM	20.0821	1.0	22.7662	1.0	19.4792	1.0	20.9253	1.0
RNN	40.4964	0.0	43.9783	0.0	42.0421	0.0	45.4903	0.0
SVM	28.3697	0.0	29.9665	0.0	29.5785	0.0	34.9865	0.0
Naïve 1	42.3125	0.0	44.1540	0.0	48.9230	0.0	51.3325	0.0
Period 3
SSARIMA	31.9379	0.0	38.7095	0.0	32.0336	0.0	37.1365	0.0
MSARIMA	32.9646	0.0	39.3103	0.0	32.1794	0.0	39.8404	0.0
ANN	38.0234	0.0	44.4781	0.0	39.5558	0.0	45.8675	0.0
LSTM	28.7461	1.0	30.0618	1.0	26.1132	1.0	27.5015	1.0
RNN	30.0229	0.0	33.1055	0.0	30.3003	0.0	35.7012	0.0
SVM	50.2901	0.0	55.6145	0.0	47.6601	0.0	52.6841	0.0
Naïve 1	53.1315	0.0	56.3621	0.0	48.1125	0.0	53.1002	0.0

	6-step ahead				12-step ahead
Model	MAE	MCS	RMSE	MCS	MAE	MCS	RMSE	MCS
Period 1
SSARIMA	41.4288	0.0	44.2381	0.0	42.5185	0.0	51.8779	0.0
MSARIMA	47.3881	0.0	49.9024	0.0	46.6675	0.0	57.1757	0.0
ANN	46.1676	0.0	49.2756	0.0	54.8511	0.0	60.9110	0.0
LSTM	28.9648	1.0	30.4676	1.0	32.1464	1.0	45.2101	1.0
RNN	45.1481	0.0	46.4471	0.0	46.1706	0.0	56.7902	0.0
SVM	48.8050	0.0	55.8872	0.0	58.6210	0.0	64.5037	0.0
Naïve 1	50.3311	0.0	53.8176	0.0	58.6815	0.0	64.8541	0.0
Period 2
SSARIMA	35.8164	0.0	39.5107	0.0	31.0932	0.0	35.9545	0.0
MSARIMA	21.1724	0.0	26.0561	0.0	27.9434	0.0	30.3806	0.0
ANN	42.0653	0.0	43.9968	0.0	44.2593	0.0	46.8779	0.0
LSTM	20.0821	1.0	22.7662	1.0	19.4792	1.0	20.9253	1.0
RNN	40.4964	0.0	43.9783	0.0	42.0421	0.0	45.4903	0.0
SVM	28.3697	0.0	29.9665	0.0	29.5785	0.0	34.9865	0.0
Naïve 1	42.3125	0.0	44.1540	0.0	48.9230	0.0	51.3325	0.0
Period 3
SSARIMA	31.9379	0.0	38.7095	0.0	32.0336	0.0	37.1365	0.0
MSARIMA	32.9646	0.0	39.3103	0.0	32.1794	0.0	39.8404	0.0
ANN	38.0234	0.0	44.4781	0.0	39.5558	0.0	45.8675	0.0
LSTM	28.7461	1.0	30.0618	1.0	26.1132	1.0	27.5015	1.0
RNN	30.0229	0.0	33.1055	0.0	30.3003	0.0	35.7012	0.0
SVM	50.2901	0.0	55.6145	0.0	47.6601	0.0	52.6841	0.0
Naïve 1	53.1315	0.0	56.3621	0.0	48.1125	0.0	53.1002	0.0

Note:

The italic numbers indicate the lowest error rate (MAE and RMSE)