Table 2 Age of exit and the likelihood...

Table 2

Age of exit and the likelihood of early exit (−65)

	Age of exit coefficients		Early exit (−65) marginal effects
	No controls	Full model	No controls	Full model
Labour market attachment measures
Employment status at age 30
Worked 1–34 h per week	ref.cat	ref.cat	ref.cat	ref.cat
Worked 35+ hours per week	0.203***	0.016	−0.031***	−0.005
Worked 35+ hours per week	(0.018)	(0.021)	(0.003)	(0.004)
Student	0.446***	0.199***	−0.067***	−0.037***
Student	(0.041)	(0.041)	(0.007)	(0.008)
Not employed	−0.212***	−0.116***	0.027***	0.010**
Not employed	(0.028)	(0.028)	(0.006)	(0.005)
N.A. during the period	0.147***	0.140***	−0.038***	−0.042***
N.A. during the period	(0.041)	(0.044)	(0.007)	(0.008)
Between the ages of 40–49
Always employed	ref.cat	ref.cat	ref.cat
Employed more than 5 consecutive years	0.017	0.130***	0.003	−0.023***
Employed more than 5 consecutive years	(0.040)	(0.027)	(0.005)	(0.005)
Employed less than 5 consecutive years	0.080***	0.081**	0.018**	−0.024***
Employed less than 5 consecutive years	(0.028)	(0.040)	(0.007)	(0.007)
Not employed in the period	−0.016	0.047	0.062**	−0.016
Not employed in the period	(0.135)	(0.134)	(0.027)	(0.023)
N.A. during the period	0.021	0.028	−0.004	−0.017
N.A. during the period	(0.058)	(0.058)	(0.007)	(0.011)
Between the ages of 50–59
Always employed	ref.cat	ref.cat	ref.cat	ref.cat
Employed more than 5 consecutive years	−0.327***	−0.287***	0.054***	0.057***
Employed more than 5 consecutive years	(0.028)	(0.028)	(0.005)	(0.006)
Employed less than 5 consecutive years	−0.665***	−0.595***	0.091***	0.094***
Employed less than 5 consecutive years	(0.044)	(0.043)	(0.009)	(0.009)
Not employed in the period	−0.159	−0.022	0.034*	0.032
Not employed in the period	(0.102)	(0.101)	(0.019)	(0.020)
N.A. during the period	−0.187**	−0.261***	0.020*	0.064***
N.A. during the period	(0.081)	(0.080)	(0.012)	(0.017)
Individual-level controls
Gender
Male		ref.cat	ref.cat	ref.cat
Female		−0.367***	0.048***	0.050***
Female		(0.017)	(0.003)	(0.003)
Educational attainment
Primary education		ref.cat	ref.cat
Secondary education		0.182***	−0.018***	−0.026***
Secondary education		(0.019)	(0.004)	(0.004)
Higher education		0.715***	−0.089***	−0.096***
Higher education		(0.021)	(0.004)	(0.004)
Swedish background
Native born		ref.cat	ref.cat	ref.cat
Foreign born		−0.183***	0.020***	0.018**
Foreign born		(0.048)	(0.004)	(0.009)
Childhood conditions
Overcrowded house
Non-crowded house		ref.cat	ref.cat	ref.cat
Crowded house		−0.064***	0.022***	0.010***
Crowded house		(0.019)	(0.004)	(0.004)
N.A.		0.022	0.021***	0.013
N.A.		(0.125)	(0.004)	(0.024)

	Age of exit coefficients		Early exit (−65) marginal effects
	No controls	Full model	No controls	Full model
Labour market attachment measures
Employment status at age 30
Worked 1–34 h per week	ref.cat	ref.cat	ref.cat	ref.cat
Worked 35+ hours per week	0.203***	0.016	−0.031***	−0.005
Worked 35+ hours per week	(0.018)	(0.021)	(0.003)	(0.004)
Student	0.446***	0.199***	−0.067***	−0.037***
Student	(0.041)	(0.041)	(0.007)	(0.008)
Not employed	−0.212***	−0.116***	0.027***	0.010**
Not employed	(0.028)	(0.028)	(0.006)	(0.005)
N.A. during the period	0.147***	0.140***	−0.038***	−0.042***
N.A. during the period	(0.041)	(0.044)	(0.007)	(0.008)
Between the ages of 40–49
Always employed	ref.cat	ref.cat	ref.cat
Employed more than 5 consecutive years	0.017	0.130***	0.003	−0.023***
Employed more than 5 consecutive years	(0.040)	(0.027)	(0.005)	(0.005)
Employed less than 5 consecutive years	0.080***	0.081**	0.018**	−0.024***
Employed less than 5 consecutive years	(0.028)	(0.040)	(0.007)	(0.007)
Not employed in the period	−0.016	0.047	0.062**	−0.016
Not employed in the period	(0.135)	(0.134)	(0.027)	(0.023)
N.A. during the period	0.021	0.028	−0.004	−0.017
N.A. during the period	(0.058)	(0.058)	(0.007)	(0.011)
Between the ages of 50–59
Always employed	ref.cat	ref.cat	ref.cat	ref.cat
Employed more than 5 consecutive years	−0.327***	−0.287***	0.054***	0.057***
Employed more than 5 consecutive years	(0.028)	(0.028)	(0.005)	(0.006)
Employed less than 5 consecutive years	−0.665***	−0.595***	0.091***	0.094***
Employed less than 5 consecutive years	(0.044)	(0.043)	(0.009)	(0.009)
Not employed in the period	−0.159	−0.022	0.034*	0.032
Not employed in the period	(0.102)	(0.101)	(0.019)	(0.020)
N.A. during the period	−0.187**	−0.261***	0.020*	0.064***
N.A. during the period	(0.081)	(0.080)	(0.012)	(0.017)
Individual-level controls
Gender
Male		ref.cat	ref.cat	ref.cat
Female		−0.367***	0.048***	0.050***
Female		(0.017)	(0.003)	(0.003)
Educational attainment
Primary education		ref.cat	ref.cat
Secondary education		0.182***	−0.018***	−0.026***
Secondary education		(0.019)	(0.004)	(0.004)
Higher education		0.715***	−0.089***	−0.096***
Higher education		(0.021)	(0.004)	(0.004)
Swedish background
Native born		ref.cat	ref.cat	ref.cat
Foreign born		−0.183***	0.020***	0.018**
Foreign born		(0.048)	(0.004)	(0.009)
Childhood conditions
Overcrowded house
Non-crowded house		ref.cat	ref.cat	ref.cat
Crowded house		−0.064***	0.022***	0.010***
Crowded house		(0.019)	(0.004)	(0.004)
N.A.		0.022	0.021***	0.013
N.A.		(0.125)	(0.004)	(0.024)

Model/Outcome	Age of exit		Early exit (−65)
Model/Outcome	No controls	Full model	No controls	Full model
Occupation sector of the household head
Industry, trade, transport and services		ref.cat	ref.cat	ref.cat
Agriculture, forestry, etc.		0.523***	−0.067***	−0.067***
Agriculture, forestry, etc.		(0.021)	(0.004)	(0.004)
Entrepreneurs in the liberal professions		0.305***	−0.067***	−0.040***
Entrepreneurs in the liberal professions		(0.076)	(0.013)	(0.014)
Business supervisors, technicians, etc.		0.016	−0.022***	0.003
Business supervisors, technicians, etc.		(0.018)	(0.003)	(0.004)
Military		−0.013	−0.039***	−0.011
Military		(0.075)	(0.014)	(0.015)
Not employed		0.059	−0.003	−0.005
Not employed		(0.043)	(0.008)	(0.008)
N.A.		0.000	−0.001	−0.014
N.A.		(0.131)	(0.005)	(0.024)
Constant		65.975***
Constant		(0.027)
Observations	93,506	93,506	93,506	93,506
R-squared		0.035

Model/Outcome	Age of exit		Early exit (−65)
Model/Outcome	No controls	Full model	No controls	Full model
Occupation sector of the household head
Industry, trade, transport and services		ref.cat	ref.cat	ref.cat
Agriculture, forestry, etc.		0.523***	−0.067***	−0.067***
Agriculture, forestry, etc.		(0.021)	(0.004)	(0.004)
Entrepreneurs in the liberal professions		0.305***	−0.067***	−0.040***
Entrepreneurs in the liberal professions		(0.076)	(0.013)	(0.014)
Business supervisors, technicians, etc.		0.016	−0.022***	0.003
Business supervisors, technicians, etc.		(0.018)	(0.003)	(0.004)
Military		−0.013	−0.039***	−0.011
Military		(0.075)	(0.014)	(0.015)
Not employed		0.059	−0.003	−0.005
Not employed		(0.043)	(0.008)	(0.008)
N.A.		0.000	−0.001	−0.014
N.A.		(0.131)	(0.005)	(0.024)
Constant		65.975***
Constant		(0.027)
Observations	93,506	93,506	93,506	93,506
R-squared		0.035

Note(s): The table shows OLS regression results (1st and 2nd columns) and marginal effects generated using a probit model (3rd and 4th columns). The population includes individuals born in 1950, registered in Sweden in all years between 2010 and 2018, and with at least one month of income statement in a year between 2010 and 2018 (n = 93,506). Standard errors in parentheses. ***p < 0.01, **p < 0.05, *p < 0.1

Source(s): Author's calculations based on Swedish national registers

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