Table 3 The likelihood of exit from the...

Table 3

The likelihood of exit from the labour market for different age groups and benefit receipt in the exit year

Exit age	Labour market exit in different ages and with or without benefit receipt in the exit year
Exit age	60		61		62–64		65		66–67	After 67
Benefits	Without	With	Without	With	Without	With	Without	With	Without	Without
Benefits	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)	(9)	(10)
Labour market attachment measures
Employment status at age 30
Worked 1–34 h per week	ref. cat
Worked 35+ hours per week	−0.000	0.000	0.002*	−0.001	−0.001	−0.005**	0.001	−0.001	0.001	0.004
Worked 35+ hours per week	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.003)	(0.002)	(0.003)	(0.002)	(0.004)	(0.005)
Student	−0.002	0.001	−0.005**	0.000	−0.023***	−0.009*	−0.018***	0.002	0.016**	0.036***
Student	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.006)	(0.005)	(0.006)	(0.004)	(0.007)	(0.009)
Not employed	0.001	0.000	−0.001	0.002	0.002	0.008**	0.007*	0.005**	0.005	−0.028***
Not employed	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.004)	(0.003)	(0.004)	(0.002)	(0.005)	(0.006)
N.A. during the period	−0.003**	−0.000	−0.000	−0.002	−0.040***	−0.001	0.006	0.014***	0.023***	0.003
N.A. during the period	(0.001)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.005)	(0.005)	(0.007)	(0.004)	(0.008)	(0.010)
Between the ages of 40–49
Always employed	ref. cat
Employed more than 5 consecutive years	−0.001	0.002	−0.003*	0.001	−0.031***	0.008***	−0.013***	0.008***	0.001	0.027***
Employed more than 5 consecutive years	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.004)	(0.003)	(0.004)	(0.002)	(0.005)	(0.006)
Employed less than 5 consecutive years	0.001	0.003*	−0.002	0.002	−0.036***	0.004	−0.004	0.013***	0.005	0.014
Employed less than 5 consecutive years	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.005)	(0.004)	(0.006)	(0.004)	(0.007)	(0.009)
Not employed in the period	0.009	0.005	−0.001	0.003	−0.018	−0.017*	−0.024	−0.006	0.022	0.027
Not employed in the period	(0.008)	(0.005)	(0.008)	(0.005)	(0.021)	(0.010)	(0.019)	(0.009)	(0.024)	(0.031)
N.A. during the period	0.002	0.001	−0.002	0.001	−0.022***	0.001	−0.001	0.011**	0.002	0.007
N.A. during the period	(0.003)	(0.002)	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.009)	(0.006)	(0.008)	(0.005)	(0.010)	(0.013)
Between the ages of 50–59
Always employed	ref. cat
Employed more than 5 consecutive years	0.002**	0.020***	−0.001	0.019***	−0.037***	0.049***	−0.034***	0.008***	−0.030***	0.003
Employed more than 5 consecutive years	(0.001)	(0.002)	(0.001)	(0.002)	(0.004)	(0.004)	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.004)	(0.006)
Employed less than 5 consecutive years	0.003*	0.036***	0.001	0.018***	−0.038***	0.064***	−0.041***	0.026***	−0.011	−0.058***
Employed less than 5 consecutive years	(0.002)	(0.004)	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.005)	(0.005)	(0.007)	(0.010)
Not employed in the period	−0.001	0.015**	−0.005	0.019***	−0.067***	0.051***	−0.078***	−0.005	0.012	0.059***
Not employed in the period	(0.003)	(0.006)	(0.005)	(0.007)	(0.010)	(0.014)	(0.008)	(0.007)	(0.018)	(0.023)
N.A. during the period	0.009*	0.007*	0.014*	0.000	0.027*	0.010	−0.023**	−0.013***	−0.011	−0.020
N.A. during the period	(0.005)	(0.004)	(0.008)	(0.003)	(0.015)	(0.009)	(0.010)	(0.004)	(0.013)	(0.018)
Individual-level controls
Gender
Male	ref. cat
Female	−0.002***	0.003***	0.004***	0.005***	0.019***	0.020***	0.012***	0.018***	0.004	−0.084***
Female	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.001)	(0.003)	(0.004)
Educational attainment
Primary education	ref. cat
Secondary education	0.001	−0.002**	0.004***	−0.006***	−0.004	−0.019***	−0.010***	−0.012***	0.012***	0.036***
Secondary education	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.003)	(0.002)	(0.003)	(0.002)	(0.003)	(0.004)
Higher education	−0.002**	−0.008***	−0.002	−0.011***	−0.026***	−0.048***	−0.038***	−0.028***	0.010***	0.153***
Higher education	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.003)	(0.002)	(0.003)	(0.002)	(0.004)	(0.005)
Swedish background
Native born	ref. cat
Foreign born	−0.001	0.002	−0.002	0.006**	0.000	0.012**	0.007	0.006	0.028***	−0.058***
Foreign born	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.003)	(0.007)	(0.006)	(0.007)	(0.004)	(0.009)	(0.011)
Childhood conditions
Overcrowded house
Non-crowded house	ref. cat
Crowded house	0.001	−0.000	−0.002	−0.001	0.004	0.008***	0.006*	0.003*	−0.001	−0.018***
Crowded house	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.003)	(0.002)	(0.003)	(0.002)	(0.003)	(0.004)
N.A.	0.011	0.004	−0.009	−0.001	0.010	−0.004	−0.039**	−0.005	0.021	0.013
N.A.	(0.007)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.018)	(0.014)	(0.015)	(0.010)	(0.022)	(0.028)
Occupation sector of the household head
Industry, trade, transport and services	ref. cat
Agriculture, forestry, etc.	−0.004***	−0.003***	−0.005***	−0.004***	−0.033***	−0.018***	−0.024***	−0.006***	−0.043***	0.140***
Agriculture, forestry, etc.	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.003)	(0.002)	(0.003)	(0.002)	(0.004)	(0.005)
Entrepreneurs in the liberal professions	−0.002	0.006	−0.005	−0.005	−0.007	−0.027***	−0.009	−0.022***	−0.014	0.085***
Entrepreneurs in the liberal professions	(0.003)	(0.005)	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.011)	(0.008)	(0.011)	(0.005)	(0.013)	(0.017)
Business supervisors, technicians, etc.	0.001	0.000	0.002*	−0.001	0.007***	−0.008***	−0.004	−0.005***	−0.005	0.012***
Business supervisors, technicians, etc.	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.003)	(0.002)	(0.003)	(0.002)	(0.003)	(0.004)
Military	0.004	0.004	0.001	0.003	−0.004	−0.020**	0.000	0.005	−0.006	0.012
Military	(0.004)	(0.005)	(0.004)	(0.005)	(0.011)	(0.008)	(0.011)	(0.007)	(0.013)	(0.017)
Not employed	−0.003*	0.003	−0.005**	−0.001	−0.003	0.003	−0.012**	0.007*	−0.007	0.018*
Not employed	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.006)	(0.005)	(0.006)	(0.004)	(0.007)	(0.010)
N.A.	−0.005	−0.002	0.013	−0.002	−0.018	0.005	0.049*	0.006	−0.040**	−0.006
N.A.	(0.003)	(0.005)	(0.015)	(0.007)	(0.017)	(0.017)	(0.026)	(0.013)	(0.020)	(0.030)
Observations	93,506	93,506	93,506	93,506	93,506	93,506	93,506	93,506	93,506	93,506

Exit age	Labour market exit in different ages and with or without benefit receipt in the exit year
Exit age	60		61		62–64		65		66–67	After 67
Benefits	Without	With	Without	With	Without	With	Without	With	Without	Without
Benefits	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)	(9)	(10)
Labour market attachment measures
Employment status at age 30
Worked 1–34 h per week	ref. cat
Worked 35+ hours per week	−0.000	0.000	0.002*	−0.001	−0.001	−0.005**	0.001	−0.001	0.001	0.004
Worked 35+ hours per week	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.003)	(0.002)	(0.003)	(0.002)	(0.004)	(0.005)
Student	−0.002	0.001	−0.005**	0.000	−0.023***	−0.009*	−0.018***	0.002	0.016**	0.036***
Student	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.006)	(0.005)	(0.006)	(0.004)	(0.007)	(0.009)
Not employed	0.001	0.000	−0.001	0.002	0.002	0.008**	0.007*	0.005**	0.005	−0.028***
Not employed	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.004)	(0.003)	(0.004)	(0.002)	(0.005)	(0.006)
N.A. during the period	−0.003**	−0.000	−0.000	−0.002	−0.040***	−0.001	0.006	0.014***	0.023***	0.003
N.A. during the period	(0.001)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.005)	(0.005)	(0.007)	(0.004)	(0.008)	(0.010)
Between the ages of 40–49
Always employed	ref. cat
Employed more than 5 consecutive years	−0.001	0.002	−0.003*	0.001	−0.031***	0.008***	−0.013***	0.008***	0.001	0.027***
Employed more than 5 consecutive years	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.004)	(0.003)	(0.004)	(0.002)	(0.005)	(0.006)
Employed less than 5 consecutive years	0.001	0.003*	−0.002	0.002	−0.036***	0.004	−0.004	0.013***	0.005	0.014
Employed less than 5 consecutive years	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.005)	(0.004)	(0.006)	(0.004)	(0.007)	(0.009)
Not employed in the period	0.009	0.005	−0.001	0.003	−0.018	−0.017*	−0.024	−0.006	0.022	0.027
Not employed in the period	(0.008)	(0.005)	(0.008)	(0.005)	(0.021)	(0.010)	(0.019)	(0.009)	(0.024)	(0.031)
N.A. during the period	0.002	0.001	−0.002	0.001	−0.022***	0.001	−0.001	0.011**	0.002	0.007
N.A. during the period	(0.003)	(0.002)	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.009)	(0.006)	(0.008)	(0.005)	(0.010)	(0.013)
Between the ages of 50–59
Always employed	ref. cat
Employed more than 5 consecutive years	0.002**	0.020***	−0.001	0.019***	−0.037***	0.049***	−0.034***	0.008***	−0.030***	0.003
Employed more than 5 consecutive years	(0.001)	(0.002)	(0.001)	(0.002)	(0.004)	(0.004)	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.004)	(0.006)
Employed less than 5 consecutive years	0.003*	0.036***	0.001	0.018***	−0.038***	0.064***	−0.041***	0.026***	−0.011	−0.058***
Employed less than 5 consecutive years	(0.002)	(0.004)	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.005)	(0.005)	(0.007)	(0.010)
Not employed in the period	−0.001	0.015**	−0.005	0.019***	−0.067***	0.051***	−0.078***	−0.005	0.012	0.059***
Not employed in the period	(0.003)	(0.006)	(0.005)	(0.007)	(0.010)	(0.014)	(0.008)	(0.007)	(0.018)	(0.023)
N.A. during the period	0.009*	0.007*	0.014*	0.000	0.027*	0.010	−0.023**	−0.013***	−0.011	−0.020
N.A. during the period	(0.005)	(0.004)	(0.008)	(0.003)	(0.015)	(0.009)	(0.010)	(0.004)	(0.013)	(0.018)
Individual-level controls
Gender
Male	ref. cat
Female	−0.002***	0.003***	0.004***	0.005***	0.019***	0.020***	0.012***	0.018***	0.004	−0.084***
Female	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.001)	(0.003)	(0.004)
Educational attainment
Primary education	ref. cat
Secondary education	0.001	−0.002**	0.004***	−0.006***	−0.004	−0.019***	−0.010***	−0.012***	0.012***	0.036***
Secondary education	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.003)	(0.002)	(0.003)	(0.002)	(0.003)	(0.004)
Higher education	−0.002**	−0.008***	−0.002	−0.011***	−0.026***	−0.048***	−0.038***	−0.028***	0.010***	0.153***
Higher education	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.003)	(0.002)	(0.003)	(0.002)	(0.004)	(0.005)
Swedish background
Native born	ref. cat
Foreign born	−0.001	0.002	−0.002	0.006**	0.000	0.012**	0.007	0.006	0.028***	−0.058***
Foreign born	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.003)	(0.007)	(0.006)	(0.007)	(0.004)	(0.009)	(0.011)
Childhood conditions
Overcrowded house
Non-crowded house	ref. cat
Crowded house	0.001	−0.000	−0.002	−0.001	0.004	0.008***	0.006*	0.003*	−0.001	−0.018***
Crowded house	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.003)	(0.002)	(0.003)	(0.002)	(0.003)	(0.004)
N.A.	0.011	0.004	−0.009	−0.001	0.010	−0.004	−0.039**	−0.005	0.021	0.013
N.A.	(0.007)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.018)	(0.014)	(0.015)	(0.010)	(0.022)	(0.028)
Occupation sector of the household head
Industry, trade, transport and services	ref. cat
Agriculture, forestry, etc.	−0.004***	−0.003***	−0.005***	−0.004***	−0.033***	−0.018***	−0.024***	−0.006***	−0.043***	0.140***
Agriculture, forestry, etc.	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.003)	(0.002)	(0.003)	(0.002)	(0.004)	(0.005)
Entrepreneurs in the liberal professions	−0.002	0.006	−0.005	−0.005	−0.007	−0.027***	−0.009	−0.022***	−0.014	0.085***
Entrepreneurs in the liberal professions	(0.003)	(0.005)	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.011)	(0.008)	(0.011)	(0.005)	(0.013)	(0.017)
Business supervisors, technicians, etc.	0.001	0.000	0.002*	−0.001	0.007***	−0.008***	−0.004	−0.005***	−0.005	0.012***
Business supervisors, technicians, etc.	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.003)	(0.002)	(0.003)	(0.002)	(0.003)	(0.004)
Military	0.004	0.004	0.001	0.003	−0.004	−0.020**	0.000	0.005	−0.006	0.012
Military	(0.004)	(0.005)	(0.004)	(0.005)	(0.011)	(0.008)	(0.011)	(0.007)	(0.013)	(0.017)
Not employed	−0.003*	0.003	−0.005**	−0.001	−0.003	0.003	−0.012**	0.007*	−0.007	0.018*
Not employed	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.006)	(0.005)	(0.006)	(0.004)	(0.007)	(0.010)
N.A.	−0.005	−0.002	0.013	−0.002	−0.018	0.005	0.049*	0.006	−0.040**	−0.006
N.A.	(0.003)	(0.005)	(0.015)	(0.007)	(0.017)	(0.017)	(0.026)	(0.013)	(0.020)	(0.030)
Observations	93,506	93,506	93,506	93,506	93,506	93,506	93,506	93,506	93,506	93,506

Note(s): The table shows marginal effects generated using multinomial probit model. The population includes individuals born in 1950, registered in Sweden in all years between 2010 and 2018, and with at least one month of income statement in a year between 2010 and 2018 (n = 93,506). Standard errors in parentheses. ***p < 0.01, **p < 0.05, *p < 0.1

Source(s): Author's calculations based on Swedish national registers

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