Imagine selecting wheat varieties for the coming year. You can choose between wheat of quality groups A (A wheat) and B (B wheat). In both cases, production costs amount to € 1,180.

The other farmers - the other 29 participants in the experiment - are facing this decision. You have two alternatives to choose from:

B wheat

- Has a safe yield of 8.3 tons/hectare and a guaranteed price of € 147 / ton.

- This results in a revenue of € 1,220 (8.3 tons × € 147).

- After deduction of the production costs (1,180 €) there remains a profit of 40 €.

A wheat

- Has a safe yield of 8 tons/hectare.

- Depending on the market situation, the price of A wheat varies. There are two cases:

If 20 % or more farmers grow A wheat, there is a high supply. In this case, the price is 150 € / ton. This results in a revenue of € 1,200 (8 tons × € 150). After deducting the costs (1,180 €), a profit of 20 € remains.

or

If less than 20 % of the farmers cultivate A wheat, there is a small supply of A wheat. In this case, the price is 155 € / ton. This results in a revenue of € 1,240 (8 tons × € 155). After deduction of the costs, a profit of 60 € remains.

The described yields and the desired qualities are certainly achieved and consequently, there is no uncertainty with regard to these two parameters.

From all participants, 20 % will be drawn, which receive the profit according to their selection. The winners will be determined after the second part of the survey.

What do you choose?

B wheat □ A wheat □

¹ : The 80 % treatment differs from this treatment only in the fact that 80 % appears instead of 20 %