Table II

Checklist of diagnostic questions based on seven common properties of complex adaptive systems

Common properties of complex adaptive systemsResearch questions for value chains involving smallholders
TimeHow has the value chain developed and changed over time in terms of supply and demand, principal actors, and the institutional environment?
What periodization is most appropriate to describe this development and what were the principal drivers of change?
How have past events and trends in the evolution of the chain and output markets shaped the organization and performance of the chain?
How have different actors in the chain benefited or been harmed due to changes over time in the context, or business relations?
UncertaintyWhat were the major sources of uncertainty in the chain for value chain actors and relations between actors?
What are the major sources of uncertainty in the market, and the political, legal and business environments?
Sensitivity to initial conditionsWhat assumptions do the value chain actors and their external supporters make about market conditions?
What initial market conditions are likely to be sensitive to change and how could changes in these conditions affect the performance of the value chain?
What initial conditions might affect the participation of specific value chain actors, such as smallholders or SME’s? Why?
Shocks (endogenous, exogenous)What are the most likely sources of shocks, based on past experience and deduction from similar cases?
Are these shocks internal or external to the value chain?
How predictable are these shocks?
How will different actors in the chain be affected?
What will be the immediate/long-term effects?
How will these affect the performance/viability of the chain?
Sudden changeWhat sudden changes might affect the value chain?
How quickly do market conditions change?
Interacting agentsWhich actions by business actors might jeopardize/destroy the value chain?
What mechanisms exist to coordinate actions among business actors in the value chain?
What capacity do business actors have to influence policy-makers?
AdaptationWhat mechanisms are in place to adapt to shocks?
Do smallholders have the capacity for adaptation to these shocks?
How quickly can actors respond to shocks and sudden changes?
How do value chain actors adapt to shocks?
How effective are these strategies?
What new strategies can be implemented to prevent recurrence?

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