The top-ten most likely scenarios out of 512 possible scenarios
| Description | Normalized probability |
|---|---|
| Internal conflict in all three countries | 0.2599 |
| No events | 0.1622 |
| Terrorist attack and internal conflict in all three countries | 0.1039 |
| Internal conflict in Burkina Faso and Mali | 0.0972 |
| Internal conflict in Burkina Faso and Niger | 0.0972 |
| Internal conflict in Mali and Niger | 0.0972 |
| Terrorist attack in all three countries | 0.0650 |
| Terrorist attack in Chad and Niger | 0.0391 |
| Plus internal conflicts in all three countries | |
| Terrorist attack in Chad and Nigeria | 0.0391 |
| Plus internal conflicts in all three countries | |
| Terrorist attack in Niger and Nigeria | 0.0391 |
| Plus internal conflicts in all three countries |
| Description | Normalized probability |
|---|---|
| Internal conflict in all three countries | 0.2599 |
| No events | 0.1622 |
| Terrorist attack and internal conflict in all three countries | 0.1039 |
| Internal conflict in Burkina Faso and Mali | 0.0972 |
| Internal conflict in Burkina Faso and Niger | 0.0972 |
| Internal conflict in Mali and Niger | 0.0972 |
| Terrorist attack in all three countries | 0.0650 |
| Terrorist attack in Chad and Niger | 0.0391 |
| Plus internal conflicts in all three countries | |
| Terrorist attack in Chad and Nigeria | 0.0391 |
| Plus internal conflicts in all three countries | |
| Terrorist attack in Niger and Nigeria | 0.0391 |
| Plus internal conflicts in all three countries |
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