Predictability of short selling
| Independent variables | Skewnesst+1 | Down-to-Upt+1 |
|---|---|---|
| relss | 0.0025* (1.84) | 0.0019** (2.16) |
| Skewness | 0.0128** (2.37) | 0.0093*** (2.65) |
| Kurtosis | 0.0015 (0.72) | 0.0013 (1.18) |
| Sigma | −0.0140** (−2.21) | −0.0125*** (−3.22) |
| Daily ret | 0.0058 (0.91) | 0.0037 (0.95) |
| B/M | 1.0979*** (3.71) | 0.7436*** (4.40) |
| Lev | 0.0011 (0.54) | 0.0007 (0.54) |
| ROA | −0.0096* (−1.70) | −0.0056 (−1.61) |
| LnSize | 0.0676*** (15.89) | 0.0392*** (15.83) |
| Abnormal tv | 0.0479** (2.04) | 0.0321** (2.07) |
| R2 | 0.056 | 0.055 |
| Adj. R2 | 0.021 | 0.020 |
| Independent variables | ||
|---|---|---|
| 0.0025 | 0.0019 | |
| 0.0128 | 0.0093 | |
| 0.0015 (0.72) | 0.0013 (1.18) | |
| −0.0140 | −0.0125 | |
| 0.0058 (0.91) | 0.0037 (0.95) | |
| 1.0979 | 0.7436 | |
| 0.0011 (0.54) | 0.0007 (0.54) | |
| −0.0096 | −0.0056 (−1.61) | |
| Ln | 0.0676 | 0.0392 |
| 0.0479 | 0.0321 | |
| 0.056 | 0.055 | |
| 0.021 | 0.020 |
Notes:
This table reports the stock-level cross-sectional regression results of the predictability of short selling activity, using Fama and MacBeth (1973) methodology. The dependent variables are two stock price crash risk measures, Skewness and Down-to-Up, respectively. Skewness is the stock price crash measure defined as the negative coefficient of skewness of firm-specific daily stock returns in a given month, where the firm-specific daily stock return is the regression residual from equation (1). Down-to-Up is the other stock price crash measure, defined as the logarithm of the standard deviation down days, in terms of firm-specific daily returns, divided by the number of up days in a given month. We define down (up) days as the days with firm-specific daily stock returns below (above) the average in a given month. relss (%) is the average daily relative short selling activity in a given month, defined as the daily short volume divided by the daily trading volume; Kurtosis is the kurtosis of firm-specific daily stock returns in a given month; Sigma is the standard deviation of firm-specific daily stock returns in a given month; Daily ret (%) is the average daily stock return in a given month; B/M is the book-to-market ratio, defined as the value of book equity in year y−1 divided by the year-end market capitalization in year y-1; Lev is the leverage ratio, defined as total liability divided by total assets; ROA is year-end net income divided by total assets; LnSize is the logarithm of market capitalization in a given month; Abnormal tv is defined as monthly turnover minus the previous month’s turnover; and tv is turnover, defined as the monthly total number of shares traded divided by the number of shares outstanding. The intercepts are estimated but are not tabulated here. The t-statistics are in parentheses, and standard errors are corrected by using the Newey–West procedure;
;
;
indicate statistical significance at the 1%, 5% and 10% levels, respectively
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