Table 9. Confusion matrix for leading...

Table 9.

Confusion matrix for leading analysis (logistic regression and support vector machine)

	Prediction
	Expansion	Contraction	Total
Panel A: Excluding the OnBid auction rate (Logistic regression)
Actual
Expansion	72	28	100
Contraction	22	64	86
Total	94	92	186
Panel B: Including the OnBid auction rate (Logistic regression)
Actual
Expansion	73	27	100
Contraction	23	63	86
Total	96	90	186
Panel C: Excluding the OnBid auction rate (Support vector machine)
Actual
Expansion	82	18	100
Contraction	11	75	86
Total	93	93	186
Panel D: Including the OnBid auction rate (Support vector machine)
Actual
Expansion	83	17	100
Contraction	7	79	86
Total	90	96	186

	Prediction
	Expansion	Contraction	Total
Panel A: Excluding the OnBid auction rate (Logistic regression)
Actual
Expansion	72	28	100
Contraction	22	64	86
Total	94	92	186
Panel B: Including the OnBid auction rate (Logistic regression)
Actual
Expansion	73	27	100
Contraction	23	63	86
Total	96	90	186
Panel C: Excluding the OnBid auction rate (Support vector machine)
Actual
Expansion	82	18	100
Contraction	11	75	86
Total	93	93	186
Panel D: Including the OnBid auction rate (Support vector machine)
Actual
Expansion	83	17	100
Contraction	7	79	86
Total	90	96	186

Notes:

This table reports three-month-ahead prediction results by using logistic regression (Panels A and B) and support vector machine (Panels C and D). Note that the total number of three-month-ahead building blocks used in multiperiod binary classification is 186 months that consist of 86 months in contraction and 100 months in expansion

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