Table A1

Components of the expected rate of return

ClassificationFactor decomposition of expected rate of return
Domestic bondsRisk-free interest rate (estimation) + term spread + credit spread + expected capital gain or loss
Overseas bondsRisk-free interest rate (estimation) + credit spread + expected capital gain or loss + foreign exchange hedge premium
StockGDP (estimation) + CPI (estimation) + dividend yield (prediction)
Alternative investmentWeighted average of expected return by sector (Assumptions: Real Estate: Private Equity Fund: Infrastructure ratio of 4:4:2 & Domestic: Foreign ratio of 5:5)

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