Table IV Dynamic panel data analyses –...

Table IV

Dynamic panel data analyses – system GMM

Variables	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)
Variables	SGMM1	SGMM1-CL-a	SGMM2	SGMM2-CL-a	SGMM2-END-CL-a
L.economic_growth	0.971***	0.920***	0.885***	0.993***	0.783***
L.economic_growth	(0.0306)	(0.0563)	(0.0571)	(0.0711)	(0.0833)
Regional trade	0.00493	0.00972**	0.0120***	0.00479***	0.0200***
Regional trade	(0.00328)	(0.00485)	(0.00428)	(0.00589)	(0.00656)
Non-regional trade	0.000272	−3.64e–05	−0.000322	−0.000194	−0.000164
Non-regional trade	(0.000322)	(0.000458)	(0.000354)	(0.000631)	(0.000361)
Exchange rate	−0.000455***	−0.00185***	−0.00460***	−0.04561***	−0.00360***
Exchange rate	(0.00133)	(0.00201)	(0.00326)	(0.00229)	(0.00395)
Population growth	−75.26	−147.9	−281.0**	−31.88	−348.4**
Population growth	(50.63)	(101.3)	(132.3)	(122.0)	(169.4)
Unemployment rate	−0.0133	0.770	−2.797**	−0.790**	−1.036**
Unemployment rate	(0.655)	(1.244)	(8.729)	(1.245)	(1.715)
Gross capita formation	3.428	5.259	2.469*	1.563	9.813
Gross capita formation	(2.159)	(3.392)	(1.486)	(4.189)	(5.982)
Constant	207.1	453.8	995.5**	86.27	1.154**
Constant	(146.0)	(307.5)	(503.7)	(371.2)	(509.6)
Observations	132	132	132	132	132
No of countries	12	12	12	12	12
Country effect	YES	YES	YES	YES	YES
Year effect	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO
Hansen prob	1	0.902	0.902	0.275	0.252
Sargan prob	6.28e–10	9.22e–11	9.22e–11	1.11e–08	0.0434
AR(1)_p-value	0.489	0.529	0.459	0.576	0.465
AR(2)_p-value	0.127	0.138	0.108	0.119	0.235
No. of instruments	79	13	13	10	11

Variables	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)
Variables	SGMM1	SGMM1-CL-a	SGMM2	SGMM2-CL-a	SGMM2-END-CL-a
L.economic_growth	0.971***	0.920***	0.885***	0.993***	0.783***
L.economic_growth	(0.0306)	(0.0563)	(0.0571)	(0.0711)	(0.0833)
Regional trade	0.00493	0.00972**	0.0120***	0.00479***	0.0200***
Regional trade	(0.00328)	(0.00485)	(0.00428)	(0.00589)	(0.00656)
Non-regional trade	0.000272	−3.64e–05	−0.000322	−0.000194	−0.000164
Non-regional trade	(0.000322)	(0.000458)	(0.000354)	(0.000631)	(0.000361)
Exchange rate	−0.000455***	−0.00185***	−0.00460***	−0.04561***	−0.00360***
Exchange rate	(0.00133)	(0.00201)	(0.00326)	(0.00229)	(0.00395)
Population growth	−75.26	−147.9	−281.0**	−31.88	−348.4**
Population growth	(50.63)	(101.3)	(132.3)	(122.0)	(169.4)
Unemployment rate	−0.0133	0.770	−2.797**	−0.790**	−1.036**
Unemployment rate	(0.655)	(1.244)	(8.729)	(1.245)	(1.715)
Gross capita formation	3.428	5.259	2.469*	1.563	9.813
Gross capita formation	(2.159)	(3.392)	(1.486)	(4.189)	(5.982)
Constant	207.1	453.8	995.5**	86.27	1.154**
Constant	(146.0)	(307.5)	(503.7)	(371.2)	(509.6)
Observations	132	132	132	132	132
No of countries	12	12	12	12	12
Country effect	YES	YES	YES	YES	YES
Year effect	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO
Hansen prob	1	0.902	0.902	0.275	0.252
Sargan prob	6.28e–10	9.22e–11	9.22e–11	1.11e–08	0.0434
AR(1)_p-value	0.489	0.529	0.459	0.576	0.465
AR(2)_p-value	0.127	0.138	0.108	0.119	0.235
No. of instruments	79	13	13	10	11

Note(s): Robust standard errors in parentheses *p < 0.1, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01; SGMM1 and SGMM2 denote one-step and two-step GMM, respectively. Also regressions with suffix “END” treat intra-trade and lagged economic_growth as endogenous. Regressions with suffix ‘‘CL’’ follow Roodman (2009b and collapse the instrument matrix. a and b denote lag(1 5) and lag(2 4), respectively

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