The Uncertainty and FPI net
| (a) Dep. Var: FPInet | Sequential (two-stage) estimation of linear panel data models | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indep. Var | EPU | EPUvo | WUI | WUIvo |
| FPInet(−1) | 0.415*** [0.068] | 0.400*** [0.065] | 0.406*** [0.051] | 0.449*** [0.069] |
| GDPg | −0.150*** [0.056] | −0.140*** [0.053] | −0.126** [0.056] | −0.105* [0.063] |
| Sreturn | −0.005 [0.009] | −0.005 [0.010] | −0.006 [0.010] | −0.008 [0.011] |
| Scap | −0.015*** [0.005] | −0.016*** [0.004] | −0.012*** [0.005] | −0.013*** [0.004] |
| REER | 10.127*** [2.533] | 9.567*** [2.534] | 9.029*** [2.331] | 8.899*** [2.604] |
| Inf | −9.068** [3.817] | −10.701*** [3.084] | −6.642** [3.371] | −6.338* [3.451] |
| TB | 1.404** [0.609] | 1.418** [0.600] | 1.419** [0.590] | 1.136* [0.627] |
| EPU | 1.171* [0.682] | 0.954*** [0.319] | ||
| WUI | 2.653** [1.321] | 0.508*** [0.169] | ||
| Constant | −0.018 [0.640] | 0.054 [0.627] | −0.443 [0.623] | −0.068 [0.620] |
| Long-run effect | ||||
| GDPg | −0.256*** [0.082] | −0.233*** [0.078] | −0.211** [0.087] | −0.190* [0.105] |
| Sreturn | −0.009 [0.016] | −0.008 [0.017] | −0.010 [0.018] | −0.015 [0.021] |
| Scap | −0.025*** [0.009] | −0.027*** [0.008] | −0.021** [0.008] | −0.024*** [0.009] |
| REER | 17.31*** [4.869] | 15.94*** [4.667] | 15.19*** [4.16] | 16.13*** [5.19] |
| Inf | −15.50** [7.367] | −17.83*** [6.048] | −11.17* [5.925] | −11.49* [6.595] |
| TB | 2.401*** [0.899] | 2.363*** [0.889] | 2.388*** [0.914] | 2.060** [1.018] |
| EPU | 2.002 [1.312] | 1.590*** [0.572] | ||
| WUI | 4.466* [2.333] | 0.922** [0.372] | ||
| N | 224 | 224 | 224 | 224 |
| No. of Country | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 |
| No. of IVs | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 |
| AR(2) test – p-value | 0.260 | 0.285 | 0.267 | 0.255 |
| Hansen test – p-value | 0.180 | 0.171 | 0.226 | 0.235 |
| (a) Dep. Var: | Sequential (two-stage) estimation of linear panel data models | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indep. Var | EPU | EPUvo | WUI | WUIvo |
| FPInet(−1) | 0.415*** [0.068] | 0.400*** [0.065] | 0.406*** [0.051] | 0.449*** [0.069] |
| GDPg | −0.150*** [0.056] | −0.140*** [0.053] | −0.126** [0.056] | −0.105* [0.063] |
| Sreturn | −0.005 [0.009] | −0.005 [0.010] | −0.006 [0.010] | −0.008 [0.011] |
| Scap | −0.015*** [0.005] | −0.016*** [0.004] | −0.012*** [0.005] | −0.013*** [0.004] |
| REER | 10.127*** [2.533] | 9.567*** [2.534] | 9.029*** [2.331] | 8.899*** [2.604] |
| Inf | −9.068** [3.817] | −10.701*** [3.084] | −6.642** [3.371] | −6.338* [3.451] |
| TB | 1.404** [0.609] | 1.418** [0.600] | 1.419** [0.590] | 1.136* [0.627] |
| EPU | 1.171* [0.682] | 0.954*** [0.319] | ||
| WUI | 2.653** [1.321] | 0.508*** [0.169] | ||
| Constant | −0.018 [0.640] | 0.054 [0.627] | −0.443 [0.623] | −0.068 [0.620] |
| GDPg | −0.256*** [0.082] | −0.233*** [0.078] | −0.211** [0.087] | −0.190* [0.105] |
| Sreturn | −0.009 [0.016] | −0.008 [0.017] | −0.010 [0.018] | −0.015 [0.021] |
| Scap | −0.025*** [0.009] | −0.027*** [0.008] | −0.021** [0.008] | −0.024*** [0.009] |
| REER | 17.31*** [4.869] | 15.94*** [4.667] | 15.19*** [4.16] | 16.13*** [5.19] |
| Inf | −15.50** [7.367] | −17.83*** [6.048] | −11.17* [5.925] | −11.49* [6.595] |
| TB | 2.401*** [0.899] | 2.363*** [0.889] | 2.388*** [0.914] | 2.060** [1.018] |
| EPU | 2.002 [1.312] | 1.590*** [0.572] | ||
| WUI | 4.466* [2.333] | 0.922** [0.372] | ||
| 224 | 224 | 224 | 224 | |
| No. of Country | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 |
| No. of IVs | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 |
| AR(2) test – | 0.260 | 0.285 | 0.267 | 0.255 |
| Hansen test – | 0.180 | 0.171 | 0.226 | 0.235 |
| (b) Dep. Var: FPInet | Sequential (two-stage) estimation of linear panel data models | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPInet(−1) | 0.425*** [0.056] | 0.411*** [0.061] | 0.511*** [0.102] | 0.456*** [0.072] | 0.476*** [0.079] | 0.399*** [0.129] |
| GDPg | −0.143*** [0.052] | −0.167 [0.109] | −0.121** [0.058] | −0.122** [0.059] | −0.122 [0.099] | −0.067 [0.100] |
| Sreturn | −0.005 [0.008] | −0.004 [0.008] | −0.011 [0.010] | −0.006 [0.010] | −0.009 [0.009] | −0.014* [0.008] |
| Scap | −0.014*** [0.005] | −0.014** [0.007] | −0.019*** [0.007] | −0.015*** [0.004] | −0.016*** [0.005] | 0.001 [0.013] |
| REER | 10.02*** [2.383] | 10.76*** [2.564] | 34.35** [14.157] | 9.694*** [2.615] | 10.29*** [2.725] | 4.214 [12.778] |
| Inf | −7.842** [3.639] | −2.823 [29.519] | −14.07** [5.634] | −8.188** [3.287] | −7.869 [20.69] | 52.69 [51.11] |
| TB | 1.318** [0.550] | 1.300 [1.101] | 0.663 [0.498] | 1.113* [0.578] | 1.064 [0.937] | −0.834 [2.723] |
| EPU | 1.065 [0.775] | 0.698 [0.863] | 1.010 [1.009] | |||
| WUI | 2.587** [1.238] | 3.427*** [1.305] | 1.283 [1.428] | |||
| EPU*WUI | 20.80*** [5.143] | |||||
| EPU/WUI | 0.007 [0.019] | |||||
| EPUvo | 0.759** [0.369] | 0.826** [0.416] | −0.099 [0.391] | |||
| WUIvo | 0.462*** [0.170] | 0.591*** [0.183] | 0.697*** [0.187] | |||
| EPUvo*WUIvo | 0.640*** [0.219] | |||||
| EPUvo/WUIvo | 0.302*** [0.092] | |||||
| Constant | −0.153 [0.614] | −0.490 [0.629] | 0.989 [0.738] | 0.195 [0.577] | 0.187 [0.636] | −1.268 [1.078] |
| Long-run effect | ||||||
| GDPg | −0.249*** [0.078] | −0.283 [0.173] | −0.247** [0.120] | −0.225** [0.097] | −0.232 [0.176] | −0.111 [0.168] |
| Sreturn | −0.008 [0.015] | −0.007 [0.013] | −0.022 [0.025] | −0.011 [0.019] | −0.017 [0.019] | −0.023 [0.017] |
| Scap | −0.024*** [0.009] | −0.024** [0.012] | −0.040*** [0.012] | −0.028*** [0.008] | −0.030*** [0.011] | 0.002 [0.022] |
| REER | 17.44*** [4.528] | 18.27*** [5.202] | 70.21** [28.314] | 17.82*** [5.42] | 19.63*** [6.199] | 7.017 [20.115] |
| Inf | −13.641** [6.925] | −4.793 [50.353] | −28.75*** [10.078] | −15.058** [6.586] | −15.004 [40.175] | 87.75 [102.797] |
| TB | 2.293*** [0.853] | 2.207 [1.925] | 1.355 [0.905] | 2.047** [0.929] | 2.028 [1.774] | −1.389 [4.808] |
| EPU | 1.852 [1.437] | 1.185 [1.492] | 2.064 [1.99] | 1.397** [0.672] | 1.575** [0.783] | −0.164 [0.669] |
| WUI | 4.501** [2.275] | 5.818** [2.305] | 2.621 [3.088] | |||
| EPU*WUI | 35.32*** [8.009] | |||||
| EPU/WUI | 0.013 [0.042] | |||||
| EPUvo | 0.850** [0.381] | 1.126*** [0.434] | 1.160** [0.47] | |||
| WUIvo | 1.221*** [0.391] | |||||
| EPUvo*WUIvo | 0.504*** [0.17] | |||||
| EPUvo/WUIvo | 0.85** [0.381] | 1.126*** [0.434] | 1.160** [0.47] | |||
| N | 224 | 224 | 224 | 224 | 224 | 224 |
| No. of country | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 |
| No. of IVs | 18 | 19 | 19 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
| AR(2) test – p-value | 0.261 | 0.257 | 0.264 | 0.268 | 0.252 | 0.235 |
| Hansen test – p-value | 0.165 | 0.115 | 0.411 | 0.159 | 0.147 | 0.713 |
| (b) Dep. Var: | Sequential (two-stage) estimation of linear panel data models | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPInet(−1) | 0.425*** [0.056] | 0.411*** [0.061] | 0.511*** [0.102] | 0.456*** [0.072] | 0.476*** [0.079] | 0.399*** [0.129] |
| GDPg | −0.143*** [0.052] | −0.167 [0.109] | −0.121** [0.058] | −0.122** [0.059] | −0.122 [0.099] | −0.067 [0.100] |
| Sreturn | −0.005 [0.008] | −0.004 [0.008] | −0.011 [0.010] | −0.006 [0.010] | −0.009 [0.009] | −0.014* [0.008] |
| Scap | −0.014*** [0.005] | −0.014** [0.007] | −0.019*** [0.007] | −0.015*** [0.004] | −0.016*** [0.005] | 0.001 [0.013] |
| REER | 10.02*** [2.383] | 10.76*** [2.564] | 34.35** [14.157] | 9.694*** [2.615] | 10.29*** [2.725] | 4.214 [12.778] |
| Inf | −7.842** [3.639] | −2.823 [29.519] | −14.07** [5.634] | −8.188** [3.287] | −7.869 [20.69] | 52.69 [51.11] |
| TB | 1.318** [0.550] | 1.300 [1.101] | 0.663 [0.498] | 1.113* [0.578] | 1.064 [0.937] | −0.834 [2.723] |
| EPU | 1.065 [0.775] | 0.698 [0.863] | 1.010 [1.009] | |||
| WUI | 2.587** [1.238] | 3.427*** [1.305] | 1.283 [1.428] | |||
| EPU*WUI | 20.80*** [5.143] | |||||
| EPU/WUI | 0.007 [0.019] | |||||
| EPUvo | 0.759** [0.369] | 0.826** [0.416] | −0.099 [0.391] | |||
| WUIvo | 0.462*** [0.170] | 0.591*** [0.183] | 0.697*** [0.187] | |||
| EPUvo*WUIvo | 0.640*** [0.219] | |||||
| EPUvo/WUIvo | 0.302*** [0.092] | |||||
| Constant | −0.153 [0.614] | −0.490 [0.629] | 0.989 [0.738] | 0.195 [0.577] | 0.187 [0.636] | −1.268 [1.078] |
| Long-run effect | ||||||
| GDPg | −0.249*** [0.078] | −0.283 [0.173] | −0.247** [0.120] | −0.225** [0.097] | −0.232 [0.176] | −0.111 [0.168] |
| Sreturn | −0.008 [0.015] | −0.007 [0.013] | −0.022 [0.025] | −0.011 [0.019] | −0.017 [0.019] | −0.023 [0.017] |
| Scap | −0.024*** [0.009] | −0.024** [0.012] | −0.040*** [0.012] | −0.028*** [0.008] | −0.030*** [0.011] | 0.002 [0.022] |
| REER | 17.44*** [4.528] | 18.27*** [5.202] | 70.21** [28.314] | 17.82*** [5.42] | 19.63*** [6.199] | 7.017 [20.115] |
| Inf | −13.641** [6.925] | −4.793 [50.353] | −28.75*** [10.078] | −15.058** [6.586] | −15.004 [40.175] | 87.75 [102.797] |
| TB | 2.293*** [0.853] | 2.207 [1.925] | 1.355 [0.905] | 2.047** [0.929] | 2.028 [1.774] | −1.389 [4.808] |
| EPU | 1.852 [1.437] | 1.185 [1.492] | 2.064 [1.99] | 1.397** [0.672] | 1.575** [0.783] | −0.164 [0.669] |
| WUI | 4.501** [2.275] | 5.818** [2.305] | 2.621 [3.088] | |||
| EPU*WUI | 35.32*** [8.009] | |||||
| EPU/WUI | 0.013 [0.042] | |||||
| EPUvo | 0.850** [0.381] | 1.126*** [0.434] | 1.160** [0.47] | |||
| WUIvo | 1.221*** [0.391] | |||||
| EPUvo*WUIvo | 0.504*** [0.17] | |||||
| EPUvo/WUIvo | 0.85** [0.381] | 1.126*** [0.434] | 1.160** [0.47] | |||
| 224 | 224 | 224 | 224 | 224 | 224 | |
| No. of country | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 |
| No. of IVs | 18 | 19 | 19 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
| AR(2) test – | 0.261 | 0.257 | 0.264 | 0.268 | 0.252 | 0.235 |
| Hansen test – | 0.165 | 0.115 | 0.411 | 0.159 | 0.147 | 0.713 |
Note(s): Standard errors are in [ ]. *, **, *** are significant levels at 10, 5 and 1%, respectively