Table 3 The election cycle and...

Table 3

The election cycle and expenditure: baseline results

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
Pre-election	1.753***			1.613***
Pre-election	(0.639)			(0.524)
Election		1.044***		1.276***
Election		(0.353)		(0.462)
Post-election			−1.226**	−1.280**
Post-election			(0.578)	(0.598)
Population growth (t – 1)	1.388*	1.384*	1.375*	1.312*
Population growth (t – 1)	(0.772)	(0.771)	(0.774)	(0.776)
Median age (t – 1)	0.606***	0.605***	0.604***	0.602***
Median age (t – 1)	(0.196)	(0.197)	(0.197)	(0.196)
Unemployment rate (t – 1)	0.483***	0.483***	0.483***	0.483***
Unemployment rate (t – 1)	(0.167)	(0.167)	(0.167)	(0.167)
Inflation (t – 1)	−0.258***	−0.249***	−0.264***	−0.253***
Inflation (t – 1)	(0.0570)	(0.0581)	(0.0569)	(0.0568)
Government debt (t – 1)	−0.0644***	−0.0860***	−0.0588**	−0.0595**
Government debt (t – 1)	(0.0241)	(0.0240)	(0.0240)	(0.0239)
GDP growth (t – 1)	0.165	0.165	0.163	0.162
GDP growth (t – 1)	(0.148)	(0.148)	(0.148)	(0.148)
Tax revenue (t – 1)	0.422**	0.423**	0.422**	0.428**
Tax revenue (t – 1)	(0.188)	(0.187)	(0.188)	(0.186)
Constant	1.863***	1.825***	1.792***	1.816***
Constant	(0.294)	(0.586)	(0.412)	(0.427)
Observations	1,441	1,441	1,441	1,441
Time effects	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Number of countries	91	91	91	91
R-squared	0.286	0.286	0.286	0.289

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
Pre-election	1.753***			1.613***
Pre-election	(0.639)			(0.524)
Election		1.044***		1.276***
Election		(0.353)		(0.462)
Post-election			−1.226**	−1.280**
Post-election			(0.578)	(0.598)
Population growth (t – 1)	1.388*	1.384*	1.375*	1.312*
Population growth (t – 1)	(0.772)	(0.771)	(0.774)	(0.776)
Median age (t – 1)	0.606***	0.605***	0.604***	0.602***
Median age (t – 1)	(0.196)	(0.197)	(0.197)	(0.196)
Unemployment rate (t – 1)	0.483***	0.483***	0.483***	0.483***
Unemployment rate (t – 1)	(0.167)	(0.167)	(0.167)	(0.167)
Inflation (t – 1)	−0.258***	−0.249***	−0.264***	−0.253***
Inflation (t – 1)	(0.0570)	(0.0581)	(0.0569)	(0.0568)
Government debt (t – 1)	−0.0644***	−0.0860***	−0.0588**	−0.0595**
Government debt (t – 1)	(0.0241)	(0.0240)	(0.0240)	(0.0239)
GDP growth (t – 1)	0.165	0.165	0.163	0.162
GDP growth (t – 1)	(0.148)	(0.148)	(0.148)	(0.148)
Tax revenue (t – 1)	0.422**	0.423**	0.422**	0.428**
Tax revenue (t – 1)	(0.188)	(0.187)	(0.188)	(0.186)
Constant	1.863***	1.825***	1.792***	1.816***
Constant	(0.294)	(0.586)	(0.412)	(0.427)
Observations	1,441	1,441	1,441	1,441
Time effects	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Number of countries	91	91	91	91
R-squared	0.286	0.286	0.286	0.289

Note(s): Robust standard errors clustered by country are in parentheses. The dependent variable is the ratio of total government spending to GDP (Expenditure). ***, ** and * denote significance at the 1%, 5% and 10% level, respectively

Source(s): Authors' own work

[ViewLarge]

Sharing Unavailable