Table 4 The election cycle and economic...

Table 4

The election cycle and economic affairs

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
Pre-election	0.970***			0.884***
Pre-election	(0.281)			(0.272)
Election		0.727***		0.771***
Election		(0.215)		(0.246)
Post-election			−0.605**	−0.559**
Post-election			(0.312)	(0.282)
Population growth (t – 1)	−0.278**	−0.257**	−0.261**	−0.285**
Population growth (t – 1)	(0.138)	(0.126)	(0.128)	(0.122)
Median age (t – 1)	0.346***	0.345***	0.365***	0.334***
Median age (t – 1)	(0.0974)	(0.0974)	(0.0975)	(0.0974)
Unemployment rate (t – 1)	−0.0346	−0.0146	−0.0146	−0.0139
Unemployment rate (t – 1)	(0.0496)	(0.0496)	(0.0494)	(0.0489)
Inflation (t – 1)	−0.122***	−0.148***	−0.196***	−0.155**
Inflation (t – 1)	(0.0435)	(0.0535)	(0.0612)	(0.0654)
Government debt (t – 1)	−0.00983*	−0.00991*	−0.00986**	−0.0104*
Government debt (t – 1)	(0.00495)	(0.00594)	(0.00495)	(0.00582)
GDP growth (t – 1)	0.0979**	0.0984**	0.0982**	0.0976**
GDP growth (t – 1)	(0.0427)	(0.0428)	(0.0427)	(0.0422)
Tax revenue (t – 1)	0.231***	0.234***	0.230***	0.248***
Tax revenue (t – 1)	(0.0494)	(0.0493)	(0.0493)	(0.0487)
Constant	4.410**	4.409**	4.450**	4.520**
Constant	(2.246)	(2.248)	(2.258)	(2.215)
Observations	1,125	1,125	1,125	1,125
Time effects	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Number of countries	76	76	76	76
R-squared	0.071	0.072	0.073	0.078

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
Pre-election	0.970***			0.884***
Pre-election	(0.281)			(0.272)
Election		0.727***		0.771***
Election		(0.215)		(0.246)
Post-election			−0.605**	−0.559**
Post-election			(0.312)	(0.282)
Population growth (t – 1)	−0.278**	−0.257**	−0.261**	−0.285**
Population growth (t – 1)	(0.138)	(0.126)	(0.128)	(0.122)
Median age (t – 1)	0.346***	0.345***	0.365***	0.334***
Median age (t – 1)	(0.0974)	(0.0974)	(0.0975)	(0.0974)
Unemployment rate (t – 1)	−0.0346	−0.0146	−0.0146	−0.0139
Unemployment rate (t – 1)	(0.0496)	(0.0496)	(0.0494)	(0.0489)
Inflation (t – 1)	−0.122***	−0.148***	−0.196***	−0.155**
Inflation (t – 1)	(0.0435)	(0.0535)	(0.0612)	(0.0654)
Government debt (t – 1)	−0.00983*	−0.00991*	−0.00986**	−0.0104*
Government debt (t – 1)	(0.00495)	(0.00594)	(0.00495)	(0.00582)
GDP growth (t – 1)	0.0979**	0.0984**	0.0982**	0.0976**
GDP growth (t – 1)	(0.0427)	(0.0428)	(0.0427)	(0.0422)
Tax revenue (t – 1)	0.231***	0.234***	0.230***	0.248***
Tax revenue (t – 1)	(0.0494)	(0.0493)	(0.0493)	(0.0487)
Constant	4.410**	4.409**	4.450**	4.520**
Constant	(2.246)	(2.248)	(2.258)	(2.215)
Observations	1,125	1,125	1,125	1,125
Time effects	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Number of countries	76	76	76	76
R-squared	0.071	0.072	0.073	0.078

Note(s): Robust standard errors clustered by country are in parentheses. The dependent variable is the ratio of government spending on economic affairs to GDP (Economic affairs). ***, ** and * denote significance at the 1%, 5% and 10% level, respectively

Source(s): Authors' own work

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