Table 5 The election cycle and general...

Table 5

The election cycle and general public services

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
Pre-election	0.277***			0.319***
Pre-election	(0.0567)			(0.0777)
Election		0.120***		0.149***
Election		(0.0319)		(0.0346)
Post-election			0.162	−0.223
Post-election			(0.114)	(0.172)
Population growth (t – 1)	0.326***	0.329***	0.323***	0.307***
Population growth (t – 1)	(0.0882)	(0.0864)	(0.0851)	(0.0821)
Median age (t – 1)	−0.108**	−0.106**	−0.110**	−0.106**
Median age (t – 1)	(0.0482)	(0.0483)	(0.0481)	(0.0479)
Unemployment rate (t – 1)	0.0382	0.0379	0.0378	0.0386
Unemployment rate (t – 1)	(0.0538)	(0.0538)	(0.0537)	(0.0539)
Inflation (t – 1)	0.0259	0.0260	0.0261	0.0258
Inflation (t – 1)	(0.0160)	(0.0160)	(0.0158)	(0.0157)
Government debt (t – 1)	0.0357***	0.0357***	0.0357***	0.0354***
Government debt (t – 1)	(0.0110)	(0.0109)	(0.0109)	(0.0110)
GDP growth (t – 1)	−0.0392	−0.0387	−0.0389	−0.0394
GDP growth (t – 1)	(0.0543)	(0.0544)	(0.0543)	(0.0542)
Tax revenue (t – 1)	0.158**	0.158**	0.158**	0.159**
Tax revenue (t – 1)	(0.0759)	(0.0760)	(0.0759)	(0.0754)
Constant	4.004***	4.969***	4.014***	3.212
Constant	(1.675)	(1.669)	(1.669)	(2.628)
Observations	1,116	1,116	1,116	1,116
Time effects	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Number of countries	76	76	76	76
R-squared	0.262	0.262	0.262	0.264

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
Pre-election	0.277***			0.319***
Pre-election	(0.0567)			(0.0777)
Election		0.120***		0.149***
Election		(0.0319)		(0.0346)
Post-election			0.162	−0.223
Post-election			(0.114)	(0.172)
Population growth (t – 1)	0.326***	0.329***	0.323***	0.307***
Population growth (t – 1)	(0.0882)	(0.0864)	(0.0851)	(0.0821)
Median age (t – 1)	−0.108**	−0.106**	−0.110**	−0.106**
Median age (t – 1)	(0.0482)	(0.0483)	(0.0481)	(0.0479)
Unemployment rate (t – 1)	0.0382	0.0379	0.0378	0.0386
Unemployment rate (t – 1)	(0.0538)	(0.0538)	(0.0537)	(0.0539)
Inflation (t – 1)	0.0259	0.0260	0.0261	0.0258
Inflation (t – 1)	(0.0160)	(0.0160)	(0.0158)	(0.0157)
Government debt (t – 1)	0.0357***	0.0357***	0.0357***	0.0354***
Government debt (t – 1)	(0.0110)	(0.0109)	(0.0109)	(0.0110)
GDP growth (t – 1)	−0.0392	−0.0387	−0.0389	−0.0394
GDP growth (t – 1)	(0.0543)	(0.0544)	(0.0543)	(0.0542)
Tax revenue (t – 1)	0.158**	0.158**	0.158**	0.159**
Tax revenue (t – 1)	(0.0759)	(0.0760)	(0.0759)	(0.0754)
Constant	4.004***	4.969***	4.014***	3.212
Constant	(1.675)	(1.669)	(1.669)	(2.628)
Observations	1,116	1,116	1,116	1,116
Time effects	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Number of countries	76	76	76	76
R-squared	0.262	0.262	0.262	0.264

Note(s): Robust standard errors clustered by country are in parentheses. The dependent variable is the ratio of government spending on public services to GDP (Public services). ***, ** and * denote significance at the 1%, 5% and 10% level, respectively

Source(s): Authors' own work

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