Table 6 The election cycle and social...

Table 6

The election cycle and social welfare

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
Pre-election	0.620***			0.678***
Pre-election	(0.113)			(0.149)
Election		0.813***		0.942***
Election		(0.205)		(0.286)
Post-election			−0.559***	−0.588***
Post-election			(0.125)	(0.145)
Population growth (t – 1)	0.474**	0.469***	0.461***	0.468**
Population growth (t – 1)	(0.230)	(0.230)	(0.230)	(0.236)
Median age (t – 1)	0.529***	0.530***	0.530***	0.577***
Median age (t – 1)	(0.161)	(0.162)	(0.161)	(0.106)
Unemployment rate (t – 1)	0.129*	0.129*	0.128*	0.184**
Unemployment rate (t – 1)	(0.0688)	(0.0687)	(0.0683)	(0.0923)
Inflation (t – 1)	−0.0155**	−0.0154**	−0.0155**	−0.0156**
Inflation (t – 1)	(0.00672)	(0.00672)	(0.00664)	(0.00701)
Government debt (t – 1)	−0.0128**	−0.0128**	−0.0128**	−0.0128**
Government debt (t – 1)	(0.00518)	(0.00517)	(0.00519)	(0.00519)
GDP growth (t – 1)	−0.0424*	−0.0426*	−0.0428*	−0.0636
GDP growth (t – 1)	(0.0227)	(0.0227)	(0.0226)	(0.0664)
Tax revenue (t – 1)	0.159**	0.160**	0.160**	0.195**
Tax revenue (t – 1)	(0.0671)	(0.0671)	(0.0670)	(0.0904)
Constant	−5.038***	−5.134***	−5.132***	−8.881***
Constant	(1.297)	(1.314)	(1.310)	(3.283)
Observations	1,227	1,227	1,227	1,227
Time effects	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Number of countries	83	83	83	83
R-squared	0.560	0.572	0.563	0.583

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
Pre-election	0.620***			0.678***
Pre-election	(0.113)			(0.149)
Election		0.813***		0.942***
Election		(0.205)		(0.286)
Post-election			−0.559***	−0.588***
Post-election			(0.125)	(0.145)
Population growth (t – 1)	0.474**	0.469***	0.461***	0.468**
Population growth (t – 1)	(0.230)	(0.230)	(0.230)	(0.236)
Median age (t – 1)	0.529***	0.530***	0.530***	0.577***
Median age (t – 1)	(0.161)	(0.162)	(0.161)	(0.106)
Unemployment rate (t – 1)	0.129*	0.129*	0.128*	0.184**
Unemployment rate (t – 1)	(0.0688)	(0.0687)	(0.0683)	(0.0923)
Inflation (t – 1)	−0.0155**	−0.0154**	−0.0155**	−0.0156**
Inflation (t – 1)	(0.00672)	(0.00672)	(0.00664)	(0.00701)
Government debt (t – 1)	−0.0128**	−0.0128**	−0.0128**	−0.0128**
Government debt (t – 1)	(0.00518)	(0.00517)	(0.00519)	(0.00519)
GDP growth (t – 1)	−0.0424*	−0.0426*	−0.0428*	−0.0636
GDP growth (t – 1)	(0.0227)	(0.0227)	(0.0226)	(0.0664)
Tax revenue (t – 1)	0.159**	0.160**	0.160**	0.195**
Tax revenue (t – 1)	(0.0671)	(0.0671)	(0.0670)	(0.0904)
Constant	−5.038***	−5.134***	−5.132***	−8.881***
Constant	(1.297)	(1.314)	(1.310)	(3.283)
Observations	1,227	1,227	1,227	1,227
Time effects	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Number of countries	83	83	83	83
R-squared	0.560	0.572	0.563	0.583

Note(s): Robust standard errors clustered by country are in parentheses. The dependent variable is the ratio of government spending on social welfare to GDP (Social welfare). ***, ** and * denote significance at the 1%, 5% and 10% level, respectively

Source(s): Authors' own work

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