Table 7 The election cycle and public...

Table 7

The election cycle and public spending: the role of control of corruption

	(1)	(2)	(3)
Pre-election	2.131***
Pre-election	(0.765)
Pre-election × Corruption control	−0.420***
Pre-election × Corruption control	(0.133)
Election		1.460***
Election		(0.446)
Election × Corruption control		−0.223***
Election × Corruption control		(0.0598)
Post-election			−1.225**
Post-election			(0.597)
Post-election × Corruption control			−1.559
Post-election × Corruption control			(1.220)
Corruption control	−0.528**	−0.612**	−0.592**
Corruption control	(0.249)	(0.300)	(0.281)
Population growth (t – 1)	2.638***	2.632***	2.618***
Population growth (t – 1)	(0.841)	(0.845)	(0.846)
Median age (t – 1)	0.840***	0.839***	0.838***
Median age (t – 1)	(0.197)	(0.199)	(0.199)
Unemployment rate (t – 1)	0.523***	0.520***	0.523***
Unemployment rate (t – 1)	(0.186)	(0.187)	(0.187)
Inflation (t – 1)	−0.158***	−0.161***	−0.149***
Inflation (t – 1)	(0.0455)	(0.0424)	(0.0510)
Government debt (t – 1)	−0.0222	−0.0226	−0.0223
Government debt (t – 1)	(0.0268)	(0.0272)	(0.0271)
GDP growth (t – 1)	0.189	0.193	0.191
GDP growth (t – 1)	(0.161)	(0.164)	(0.162)
Tax revenue (t – 1)	0.583***	0.576***	0.575***
Tax revenue (t – 1)	(0.189)	(0.192)	(0.192)
Constant	4.75***	5.16***	4.93***
Constant	(1.803)	(1.915)	(1.846)
Observations	1,240	1,240	1,240
Time effects	Yes	Yes	Yes
Number of countries	90	90	90
R-squared	0.341	0.336	0.337

	(1)	(2)	(3)
Pre-election	2.131***
Pre-election	(0.765)
Pre-election × Corruption control	−0.420***
Pre-election × Corruption control	(0.133)
Election		1.460***
Election		(0.446)
Election × Corruption control		−0.223***
Election × Corruption control		(0.0598)
Post-election			−1.225**
Post-election			(0.597)
Post-election × Corruption control			−1.559
Post-election × Corruption control			(1.220)
Corruption control	−0.528**	−0.612**	−0.592**
Corruption control	(0.249)	(0.300)	(0.281)
Population growth (t – 1)	2.638***	2.632***	2.618***
Population growth (t – 1)	(0.841)	(0.845)	(0.846)
Median age (t – 1)	0.840***	0.839***	0.838***
Median age (t – 1)	(0.197)	(0.199)	(0.199)
Unemployment rate (t – 1)	0.523***	0.520***	0.523***
Unemployment rate (t – 1)	(0.186)	(0.187)	(0.187)
Inflation (t – 1)	−0.158***	−0.161***	−0.149***
Inflation (t – 1)	(0.0455)	(0.0424)	(0.0510)
Government debt (t – 1)	−0.0222	−0.0226	−0.0223
Government debt (t – 1)	(0.0268)	(0.0272)	(0.0271)
GDP growth (t – 1)	0.189	0.193	0.191
GDP growth (t – 1)	(0.161)	(0.164)	(0.162)
Tax revenue (t – 1)	0.583***	0.576***	0.575***
Tax revenue (t – 1)	(0.189)	(0.192)	(0.192)
Constant	4.75***	5.16***	4.93***
Constant	(1.803)	(1.915)	(1.846)
Observations	1,240	1,240	1,240
Time effects	Yes	Yes	Yes
Number of countries	90	90	90
R-squared	0.341	0.336	0.337

Note(s): The table reports the conditioning effects of control of corruption (Corruption control) on the relationship between the election cycle and government spending. The dependent variable is the ratio of total government expenditure to GDP (Expenditure). Standard errors clustered at the country level are in parentheses. ***, ** and * denote significance at the 1%, 5% and 10% level, respectively

Source(s): Authors' own work

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