Table 8 The election cycle and public...

Table 8

The election cycle and public spending: the role of political ideology

	(1)	(2)	(3)
Pre-election	0.612***
Pre-election	(0.220)
Pre-election × Left-wing	0.356**
Pre-election × Left-wing	(0.172)
Election		1.375**
Election		(0.588)
Election × Left-wing		0.205
Election × Left-wing		(0.239)
Post-election			−0.601***
Post-election			(0.231)
Post-election × Left-wing			0.704
Post-election × Left-wing			(0.818)
Left-wing	2.654**	2.433**	2.410**
Left-wing	(1.164)	(1.116)	(1.104)
Population growth (t – 1)	1.372***	1.376***	1.379***
Population growth (t – 1)	(0.441)	(0.435)	(0.431)
Median age (t – 1)	0.766***	0.765***	0.765***
Median age (t – 1)	(0.222)	(0.222)	(0.222)
Unemployment rate (t – 1)	0.349**	0.348**	0.348**
Unemployment rate (t – 1)	(0.132)	(0.132)	(0.132)
Inflation (t – 1)	−0.0114	−0.0116	−0.0117
Inflation (t – 1)	(0.0138)	(0.0139)	(0.0141)
Government debt (t – 1)	−0.0200	−0.0200	−0.0201
Government debt (t – 1)	(0.0258)	(0.0257)	(0.0257)
GDP growth (t – 1)	0.0773	0.0770	0.0804
GDP growth (t – 1)	(0.106)	(0.107)	(0.107)
Tax revenue (t – 1)	0.667***	0.668***	0.669***
Tax revenue (t – 1)	(0.162)	(0.162)	(0.162)
Constant	3.59	3.55	3.60
Constant	(2.610)	(2.568)	(2.558)
Observations	1,111	1,111	1,111
Time effects	Yes	Yes	Yes
Number of countries	75	75	75
R-squared	0.411	0.411	0.411

	(1)	(2)	(3)
Pre-election	0.612***
Pre-election	(0.220)
Pre-election × Left-wing	0.356**
Pre-election × Left-wing	(0.172)
Election		1.375**
Election		(0.588)
Election × Left-wing		0.205
Election × Left-wing		(0.239)
Post-election			−0.601***
Post-election			(0.231)
Post-election × Left-wing			0.704
Post-election × Left-wing			(0.818)
Left-wing	2.654**	2.433**	2.410**
Left-wing	(1.164)	(1.116)	(1.104)
Population growth (t – 1)	1.372***	1.376***	1.379***
Population growth (t – 1)	(0.441)	(0.435)	(0.431)
Median age (t – 1)	0.766***	0.765***	0.765***
Median age (t – 1)	(0.222)	(0.222)	(0.222)
Unemployment rate (t – 1)	0.349**	0.348**	0.348**
Unemployment rate (t – 1)	(0.132)	(0.132)	(0.132)
Inflation (t – 1)	−0.0114	−0.0116	−0.0117
Inflation (t – 1)	(0.0138)	(0.0139)	(0.0141)
Government debt (t – 1)	−0.0200	−0.0200	−0.0201
Government debt (t – 1)	(0.0258)	(0.0257)	(0.0257)
GDP growth (t – 1)	0.0773	0.0770	0.0804
GDP growth (t – 1)	(0.106)	(0.107)	(0.107)
Tax revenue (t – 1)	0.667***	0.668***	0.669***
Tax revenue (t – 1)	(0.162)	(0.162)	(0.162)
Constant	3.59	3.55	3.60
Constant	(2.610)	(2.568)	(2.558)
Observations	1,111	1,111	1,111
Time effects	Yes	Yes	Yes
Number of countries	75	75	75
R-squared	0.411	0.411	0.411

Note(s): The table reports the conditioning effects of left-wing government (Left-wing) on the relationship between the election cycle and government spending. The dependent variable is the ratio of total government expenditure to GDP (Expenditure). Standard errors clustered at the country level are in parentheses. ***, ** and * denote significance at the 1%, 5% and 10% level, respectively

Source(s): Authors' own work

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